Breaking down the Roki Sasaki deal from all angles
Roki Sasaki has reached his highly anticipated decision. The ultra-talented 23-year-old right-hander announced on Friday that he would be signing with the Dodgers. According to multiple reports, he is receiving a signing bonus of $6.5 million. The club has not confirmed the deal.
Sasaki made his choice six days before his 45-day posting window was set to close. The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki¡¯s team in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), officially posted Sasaki in December, and he elected to wait until after the start of the 2025 international signing period on Jan. 15 to choose a team. (Because Sasaki is under 25 years old, he was subject to international bonus pool restrictions, just as Shohei Ohtani was when he signed with the Angels in December 2017.)
Sasaki whittled down a long list of interested teams, eventually meeting in person with at least eight. Three of those became finalists: the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Padres. And now, Sasaki is joining the defending World Series champions, looking to establish himself as MLB¡¯s latest Japanese-born star.
Sasaki by the numbers
All stats are from NPB
2024: 18 G, 111 IP, 2.35 ERA. 10.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Career (2021-24): 69 G, 414 2/3 IP, 2.02 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
Here is a breakdown of this move from all angles, via MLB.com experts:
What does this mean for the Dodgers?
Via Dodgers beat writer Sonja Chen
The Dodgers are well-equipped to help Sasaki become one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, as they have a knack for bringing out the best in Major League-caliber arms. Because Sasaki has already seen great success at a high professional level, he shouldn't need a total overhaul, but rather some molding to help him realize his full potential.
Since Los Angeles is expected to use a six-man rotation to open the season, Sasaki would slot right in and be able to start on the schedule he's accustomed to from Japan. He'll join Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, as well as some combination of Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Landon Knack in the Dodgers' projected season-opening rotation.
Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who did not pitch in 2024 due to right elbow surgery the prior year, is set to return to the mound sometime early in the season as well. The Japanese trio of Ohtani, Yamamoto and Sasaki, along with Snell and Glasnow, could make the Dodgers¡¯ rotation one of the greatest in baseball history.
What does this mean for the Padres?
Via Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell
All 30 teams wanted Sasaki. But perhaps no team needed Sasaki more than the Padres. They¡¯re currently squarely in their window for contention, with most of their roster set to return (a roster that just pushed the Dodgers to the brink in the National League Division Series).
But that roster, as currently constructed, has major flaws -- particularly in the rotation. In the short-term, Joe Musgrove is slated to miss next season after Tommy John surgery, and at least two places are open. In the long-term, both Dylan Cease and Michael King are set to become free agents next winter, when Yu Darvish will be 39.
Sasaki could¡¯ve eased so many of those concerns. From the start, the Padres made it clear that he was their priority this offseason. Making matters worse, he ended up with the very team they¡¯re looking to dethrone in the NL West. No getting around it: For San Diego, this one hurts.
A silver lining? Only a year ago, the Padres were largely written off after trading Juan Soto and trimming payroll elsewhere. Through shrewd signings and trades, general manager A.J. Preller built his best roster to date. More of the same will be needed this winter, now that Sasaki is L.A.-bound.
What does this mean for the Blue Jays?
Via Blue Jays beat writer Keegan Matheson
This is a crushing blow to the Blue Jays. They should be used to the feeling by now, but it doesn¡¯t get any easier with experience. Coming off the disappointments of missing out on Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the inability to land Sasaki feels particularly difficult because he would have represented a bridge to the next competitive era for the Blue Jays, bringing them beyond their current veteran core.
The Blue Jays can still easily pivot to free agency with names like Anthony Santander, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman topping the list, and the trade market is still there for them, but Sasaki represented a rare opportunity. The Blue Jays have done well to upgrade their bullpen with Yimi Garcia and Jeff Hoffman, but their offense needs an upgrade -- or upgrades -- to help Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in what could be his final year in Toronto.
Hot Stove implications
Via senior national reporter Mark Feinsand
Sasaki¡¯s choice to sign with the Dodgers might have more of an impact on the international amateur free-agent market than on Major League free agents, as the clubs that missed out on Sasaki -- namely the Blue Jays and Padres -- will now have their entire bonus pool available to sign players.
On the Major League free-agent side, one question has to be asked: Is Clayton Kershaw¡¯s time with the Dodgers finished? L.A.¡¯s rotation now features Yamamoto, Snell, Sasaki, Ohtani (who will return from a right elbow surgery this season) and Glasnow, with Gonsolin, May, Knack and Emmet Sheehan waiting in the wings. We have all assumed that Kershaw would be back with the Dodgers at some point, but given the glut of starting pitching on the roster, is there even room for him?
The Blue Jays have been trying to land a big fish all winter, and now that they have missed out on Sasaki, Toronto might pivot and look for rotation help in free agency. Jack Flaherty is the top starter available, while Nick Pivetta and Max Scherzer are also among those looking for jobs.
Scouting report
Via MLB Pipeline¡¯s Jonathan Mayo
¡°He¡¯s as good as advertised,¡± one international scouting director said. ¡°He has an ideal projectable, lean and athletic frame. He has excellent arm action and delivery, with three plus power pitches with control over command. He has No. 1 upside.¡±
Sasaki¡¯s arsenal features:
- Fastball: It¡¯s at least a 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, and depending on when you saw it, it might get the rarely spotted 80.
- Splitter: Throwing the pitch in the 88-90 mph range, Sasaki kills spin with it, and it comes out of his hand looking like his heater until it falls off the table.
- Slider: This is Sasaki¡¯s ¡°third¡± pitch, but some scouts grade it out as above average, if not plus.
Diving deep
Via analyst Mike Petriello
For what it¡¯s worth, the Dodgers probably did need another starter, even after signing Blake Snell, lest you forget that four of the five games in the World Series were started either by pitchers no longer with the team or by relievers -- because three months ago, they simply could not staff an additional starter at the most important time of the year.
Now, did they need that starter to be the 23-year-old Sasaki, already one of the most exciting young pitchers alive, who comes with triple-digit heat and maybe the most elite splitter on the planet? We'll admit that it might be a little like having a Porsche in the garage just so you don¡¯t have to drive your Ferrari or Lamborghini every day, though given the fact that he signed for just $6.5 million due to the international cap limitations, it also says something about what Sasaki thinks the Dodgers can do for him, too.
This was already going to be a very good rotation. Now we¡¯re going to be talking about if it¡¯s going to be a historic rotation, given the unimaginable upside (and, to be fair, health worries) that comes with Sasaki joining Glasnow, Snell, Yamamoto and, oh yes, their designated hitter who pitches a little -- Shohei someone, we think.
Right now, FanGraphs has four of those starters in the top 11 for 2025 projected strikeout rate (Yamamoto is 31st). They¡¯re projected for 1,064 rotation strikeouts, which would be the second-most ever. None of this includes Kershaw, still expected to return in some role. None of this includes any positive contribution from Bobby Miller, who looked like a future star in 2023 before an injury-plagued 2024 disaster.
Sasaki might be the Dodgers¡¯ No. 5 starter. He might also be one of the best pitchers alive. The sheer number of boos this club will hear in every road city might be topped only by the number of strikeouts they pile up regardless.
Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff
57.1%: That was the whiff rate Sasaki induced with his splitter during the 2024 NPB season. While Sasaki¡¯s fastball velocity is eye-popping, the split may just be his best pitch, giving him a chance to join a long history of Japanese aces who have excelled with the pitch in MLB. To put that 57.1% figure in context, 59 Major League pitchers induced at least 50 swings on their splitters in 2024, and the only one to top Sasaki¡¯s NPB whiff rate was reliever Fernando Cruz (59.3%), who was traded from the Reds to the Yankees this offseason. The highest rate for an MLB starter was 50.6% by the Mariners¡¯ Logan Gilbert.