Nats win Lottery, get No. 1 pick in 2025; M's, Cards make big moves up board
Jonathan Mayo
@JonathanMayoDALLAS 每 In the 2009 and ＆10 MLB Drafts, the Washington Nationals had the No. 1 pick and turned those selections into a pair of franchise-changing players, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.
At Tuesday＊s Draft Lottery during the 2024 Winter Meetings, Washington earned another shot at the very top of the Draft. The Nationals entered the Lottery with just a 10.2 percent chance of securing the No. 1 pick in the 2025 Draft, but they leapfrogged three teams with better odds (Rockies and Marlins at 22.5 percent, and the Angels at 18 percent) to land 1-1 in July.
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※It was incredible; it＊s something that＊s a good lucky bounce for us,§ Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said. ※We＊ll get the player of our choice, we＊ll get money added to the player pool, which we can allocate in different ways throughout the Draft. We＊ve got our work cut out for us, but [vice president of amateur scouting] Danny Haas and [senior director of amateur scouting] Brad [Ciolek] and [assistant director and national crosschecker] Reed Dunn, they＊ll do a hell of a job finding the right player and employing the right strategy throughout.§
The Nationals have picked first only those two times, but they did pick No. 2 in 2023, selecting Dylan Crews, currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the game＊s best prospect. Washington also had recent top 10 picks this year (Seaver King, No. 10 overall) and in 2022 (Elijah Green, No. 5).
※There＊s nobody you can＊t have in the Draft, which is important,§ Rizzo said about picking No. 1. ※We＊ll pick the player that fits our organization the best and gives the most possibility for an impact.§
There isn＊t a slam-dunk Strasburg or Harper in the 2025 class, at least not yet, but the Nationals will have plenty of very talented amateur players to choose from in this crop, led by a familiar last name: Ethan Holliday, who sits atop MLB Pipeline＊s recently released Draft Top 100 Prospects list.
The first round of the 2025 Draft will unfold as follows, with numbers in parentheses denoting where the teams ranked in the lottery odds and their odds of winning the top overall pick:
1. Nationals (4, 10.2%)
2. Angels (3, 18.0%)
3. Mariners (15, 0.5%)
4. Rockies (T-1, 22.5%)
5. Cardinals (13, 0.8%)
6. Pirates (6, 5.3%)
7. Marlins (T-1, 22.5%)
8. Blue Jays (5, 7.5%)
9. Reds (7, 3.7%)
10. White Sox (ineligible for top pick)
11. Athletics (ineligible for top pick)
12. Rangers (8, 2.5%)
13. Giants (9, 1.9%)
14. Rays (10, 1.5%)
15. Red Sox (11, 1.2%)
16. Twins (12, 1.1%)
17. Cubs (14, 0.7%)
18. D-backs (16, 0.3%)
Not eligible for Draft Lottery:
19. Orioles
20. Brewers
21. Astros
22. Braves
23. Royals
24. Tigers
25. Padres
26. Phillies
27. Guardians
The Mariners had just a 0.5 percent chance of winning the lottery (15th highest), so their jump to the No. 3 pick was the biggest of any team. The Cardinals (0.8 percent) went from 13th best odds up to No. 5 overall.
※We were just laughing,§ said Scott Hunter, who was recently promoted to serve as Mariners vice president of amateur scouting. ※Like, every time you gain a spot, you're like, 'That's great.' And it gets serious, and you feel like you're actually sitting with a lottery ticket for real. It gives you the real excitement level of it."
Conversely, the Marlins entered the event tied with the Rockies, who earned the No. 4 pick, for the best odds at 22.5 percent, and they fell out of the top 6 Lottery picks to land No. 7, the latest they could have possibly picked in the first round.
※Frank Thomas, Clayton Kershaw, Prince Fielder, all seventh overall picks,§ Marlins scouting director Frankie Piliere said. ※We will get a good one. I have confidence in our scouting staff and our info. We're going to get a good player. There's a lot of good players out there.
※I think especially at this point, this early, there's a lot of good players clustered at the top, not a lot of clear separation at this point. Will that probably happen as the Draft gets closer? Sure, but I think we still feel really good that we're going to be looking at some really good options, players that we're excited about, and I think we're going to be in a really good spot in the end.§
The White Sox and A＊s would have qualified for the Lottery based on their 2024 record but were not eligible to participate. The White Sox received a Lottery pick in the 2024 Draft, and they are a ※payor club§ 每 a team that gives rather than receives revenue sharing dollars; those clubs are not allowed to have consecutive Lottery picks.
The A＊s are a ※payee club§ but landed Lottery picks in 2023 and '24, and payees cannot receive a Lottery pick three years in a row. They entered knowing they would be picking no earlier than 10th or 11th in the 2025 Draft as a result, though the White Sox were pulled for the No. 6 pick before the order was recalibrated.
Teams that didn＊t earn one of the top six picks were slotted in after the White Sox and A＊s in reverse order of standings from the 2024 season.
The Draft will remain at 20 rounds, and after the first round, the non-postseason teams will choose in reverse order of winning percentage. In all 20 rounds, the playoff clubs will choose in reverse order of their postseason finish (Wild Card losers, Division Series losers, Championship Series losers, World Series loser, World Series winner). Within each of those playoff groups, teams are sorted by revenue-sharing status and then reverse order of winning percentage.
The Royals have a selection after the first round by virtue of Prospect Promotion Incentive picks, which are awarded to teams that have a player who was rated as a preseason Top 100 prospect by MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and/or ESPN (at least two of the three) and goes on to win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three in the MVP or Cy Young voting after starting the season on his team's Opening Day roster.
Kansas City gets the No. 28 pick thanks to Bobby Witt Jr.＊s second-place finish for AL MVP. The Brewers get compensation for losing Willy Adames to the Giants via free agency. That＊s followed immediately by Competitive Balance Round A.
Three teams 每 the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers 每 were not eligible for the Lottery this year but won＊t pick in the reverse order of standings, as is the rule for the non-Lottery-eligible teams. Because they exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, they will have their first picks dropped 10 spots, with their first selections slated to come at picks 38-40. This is what picks 28-40 look like:
28. Royals
29. Brewers
30. Brewers
31. Tigers
32. Mariners
33. Twins
34. Rays
35. Reds
36. A＊s
37. Marlins
38. Mets
39. Yankees
40. Dodgers