Starting pitching is always in high demand around the Trade Deadline, with contenders looking for that one arm who can make a difference in the postseason race or put them over the top in their hunt for a World Series championship.
This year's crop of starting pitcher trade options could be fairly robust, especially if bubble teams such as the Padres and Mets join in on the sale.
Here are the top 14 starting pitchers who have been floated as possible trade candidates this year, ranked based on their ability to help a rotation in 2023 and beyond. (All stats are through Tuesday.)
NOTE: A report surfaced Wednesday night that the Angels will not trade Shohei Ohtani, then hours later, the club added Lucas Giolito in a trade with the White Sox. We removed Ohtani from the rankings based on that report, as well as Giolito following the deal.
1) Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox
Contract status: controllable through 2025
Cease’s ERA (4.04) is up nearly two runs from his dazzling 2.20 mark in 2022, but he’s pitched to a 3.19 ERA with a 3.25 FIP over his past 13 starts and owns MLB’s third-highest whiff rate (37.5%) since the beginning of June (minimum 200 swings). Cease also comes with two-plus years of control, which gives the 27-year-old the potential to impact three pennant races. The White Sox are reportedly not keen on dealing Cease, but given the demand for controllable starters, you never know.
Trade likelihood: Low
2) Blake Snell, LHP, Padres
Contract status: pending free agent
Snell’s status as a rental player is the only thing keeping him behind Cease on this list. Although the lefty’s 22 walks this month are a reminder of his volatility, he’s recorded a 0.78 ERA over his past 12 starts and has three pitch types with a whiff rate over 49%. No other pitcher has more than one (minimum 100 swings on that pitch type). The Padres' path remains unclear with less than a week to go before the Deadline.
Trade likelihood: Medium
3) Justin Verlander, RHP, Mets
Contract status: signed through 2024 (with 2025 vesting option)
Is Cy Young Verlander fully back? Maybe not, but we’ve learned by now not to doubt the right-hander, who has recorded a 1.46 ERA over his past six starts and cracked the 97 mph threshold with his fastball for the first time all season earlier this month.
Trade likelihood: Medium
4) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers
Contract status: has opt-out (three years left on deal)
Rodriguez’s contract situation -- he can opt out of the final three years on his five-year, $77 million deal this offseason -- complicates his trade value. But for teams looking for rotation help in 2023, there aren’t many better options available. While the southpaw has been uneven in his return after missing more than a month with a left index finger injury, he still owns career bests in ERA (2.95), FIP (3.18), WHIP (1.03) and K/BB ratio (4.33).
Trade likelihood: High
5) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs
Contract status: has opt-out (one year left on deal)
Stroman was in the running for the NL ERA lead in late June, but he’s allowed 17 earned runs over 23 2/3 innings in his past five starts. The ground-ball artist also doesn’t miss as many bats as some of the other top pitchers on this list, which prevents him from ranking higher. Still, it’s hard to argue with his track record, which includes a 3.20 ERA and a 3.62 FIP over 111 starts for three teams since the beginning of 2019. The bigger question is whether the surging Cubs will actually sell.
Trade likelihood: Medium
6) Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets
Contract status: has opt-out (one year left on deal)
Scherzer is 38 years old and hasn’t been great this month (5.25 ERA) or this season (4.20 ERA), but this is still Max Scherzer we’re talking about. There’s no way we were putting him any lower than this, especially considering he hasn’t lost his ability to punch out hitters. He’s rung up nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced since May 26.
Trade likelihood: Medium
7) Aaron Civale, RHP, Guardians
Contract status: controllable through 2025
With Shane Bieber on the injured list, the Guardians could pivot and make Civale available as they pursue offensive help. The 28-year-old righty has recorded a 2.54 ERA and 3.61 FIP on the season, and as a bonus, he comes with two-plus years of team control.
Trade likelihood: Medium
8) Jordan Montgomery, LHP, Cardinals
Contract status: pending free agent
Montgomery isn’t overpowering, but he has posted a 3.27 ERA, a 3.41 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP over 31 starts since arriving in St. Louis by way of New York at the 2022 Trade Deadline. He had a 1.48 ERA in his previous eight starts before a rocky outing against the Cubs on Sunday.
Trade likelihood: High
9) James Paxton, LHP, Red Sox
Contract status: pending free agent
Paxton is one of the riskier options on this list due to his extensive injury history, having made just six appearances across 2020-22 combined. It's unclear how the 34-year-old's body will hold up as we get deeper into the year and the innings pile up. He does come with a high ceiling, however, as he's shown while posting a 3.00 ERA, a 3.18 FIP and a 56-to-12 K/BB over his past nine starts. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said the club is looking to add a starter, which seemingly suggests Paxton is staying put, but Boston is still on the buy/sell bubble and did just trade Kiké Hernández to the Dodgers.
Trade likelihood: Medium
10) Lance Lynn, RHP, White Sox
Contract status: has 2024 club option
Lynn has a 6.18 ERA this season, but his 35% whiff rate -- the fifth highest in MLB (minimum 200 swings) -- since the start of June makes him an intriguing target. He’s likely to see some regression with his unsustainably high 21.5% HR/FB rate, which should provide some relief in the ERA department moving forward.
Trade likelihood: High
11) Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals
Contract status: pending free agent
Flaherty has never come close to recapturing the form he showed during his breakout 2019 season, but he’s stayed healthy this year and is pitching better of late, registering a 3.31 ERA, a 3.29 FIP and a 2.52 K/BB ratio over his past 11 starts. It's a big improvement from his first eight starts, over which he had a 6.18 ERA, a 5.65 FIP and a 1.44 K/BB.
Trade likelihood: High
12) Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs
Contract status: has 2024 club option
After recording a 4.78 ERA over 2021-22 and undergoing surgery to repair a right shoulder capsule tear last year, Hendricks has returned to form in 2023, posting a 3.45 ERA over 12 starts since coming off the injured list in May. Although he has one of the lowest K-rates in baseball, the 33-year-old righty has been able to minimize damage by limiting walks (97th percentile BB-rate) and hard contact (91st percentile hard-hit rate), much like he did in his heyday.
Trade likelihood: Medium
13) Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Tigers
Contract status: pending free agent
A first-time All-Star in 2023, Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run in July and owns a 2.08 ERA and a 3.02 FIP over his past six starts. The 31-year-old joined the Tigers on a one-year, $8.5 million deal in the offseason, so he'll get another try at free agency after 2023.
Trade likelihood: High
14) Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres
Contract status: has opt-out (one year left on deal)
After spending 2021-22 as a full-time reliever with the Mets, Lugo has made a successful transition back to the rotation with the Padres this season, recording a 3.72 ERA and a 3.67 FIP over 14 starts. Having shown he can be an effective big league starter, the 33-year-old will likely opt out of the final year on his two-year, $7.5 million deal to test free agency again.
Trade likelihood: Medium