Will Soto sign? Which dominoes fall next? Trades? 8 things to watch at Winter Meetings
For people inside baseball who have been around a while, any mention of the Winter Meetings taking place at Dallas¡¯ gargantuan Hilton Anatole Hotel conjures up memories of wild weather.
On the final day of the Meetings in both 2000 (the same week Alex Rodriguez signed his record-breaking contract with the hometown Rangers) and 2005, ice storms of biblical proportions struck the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and the lobby hobnobbing that pervades the Meetings shifted over to the airports, where long flight delays left virtually the entire industry temporarily stranded.
A storm of a different sort might be brewing as the Meetings return to the Anatole this coming week. You might have heard there¡¯s a generational superstar not only leading the free-agent market but clogging a lot of it up. Once he chooses his destination, get ready: Things could get wild.
Here are eight reasons why we¡¯re excited for the 2024 Winter Meetings.
1. Juan Soto will sign (we think)!
By now, you know the major players. Soto could return to the Yankees and continue to play Lou Gehrig to Aaron Judge¡¯s Babe Ruth. He could defect crosstown to the Mets or perhaps to the rival Red Sox. He could become the blockbuster acquisition the Blue Jays have been seeking. We don¡¯t think he¡¯s headed to the West Coast with the Dodgers, but they¡¯ve certainly gotten their man plenty of times before. Or hey, maybe there¡¯s still a Mystery Team in the mix to land Soto ¡ or at least drive up his already massive price tag.
A $600 million floor has reportedly already been established in the Soto talks. He might fall short of Shohei Ohtani¡¯s record-setting $700 million precedent but simultaneously blow away Ohtani¡¯s heavily deferred deal in terms of present-day value. Soto doesn¡¯t pitch and has plenty of long-term defensive question marks, but this is the kind of thing that can happen when the big dogs are motivated and you¡¯re a 26-year-old, patient slugger on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
Once Soto signs, the big dominoes will begin to fall ¡
2. There will be (more) massive pitching pacts.
The Soto sticker shock is one thing, but we¡¯re already flabbergasted by the financials attached to starting pitchers in a marketplace loaded with pitching-starved clubs.
Blake Snell¡¯s five-year deal with the Dodgers has an average annual value ($36.4 million) that currently ranks as the seventh-highest of all time, per Cot¡¯s Contracts. Luis Severino parlayed a solid bounceback year with the Mets into a deal that is potentially the most the A¡¯s have ever committed to a free agent. Yusei Kikuchi needed just two good months in an otherwise disastrous 2024 to land three years and $63 million from the Angels. Frankie Montas had a below-average ERA+ and nonetheless got two years and $34 million from the Mets. Matthew Boyd returned from Tommy John surgery in August and got two years and $29 million from the Cubs. Meanwhile, the rehabbing Shane Bieber is reportedly staying in Cleveland on a one-year, $10 million deal that includes a $16 million player option for 2026 or a $4 million buyout.
It's that kind of market. And with the impact arms of Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Nathan Eovaldi still among those on the board, it¡¯s going to continue. Any of the teams that don¡¯t land Soto could pivot to premier pitching, and the Orioles and Tigers are among the clubs that could be ready to spend significantly in that area.
3. The high-end position player market should finally crack.
Understandably, the likes of Willy Adames, Alex Bregman, Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez, Anthony Santander, Pete Alonso and Christian Walker have been in a holding pattern during the Soto sweepstakes. That will change once he signs ... perhaps the minute he signs.
If the Yankees lose Soto, their Plan B could involve any of the above. They would have first base, second base and right field open (or center field, if Judge shifts over). Jazz Chisholm Jr. gives them positional flexibility, because he could either remain at third or shift back to second or the outfield.
If the Mets miss out on Soto, that would seemingly only increase the likelihood of them bringing the popular and productive Alonso back. But they would still be in search of another stick.
If the Blue Jays strike out on Soto as they did on Ohtani, how serious are they about spending on other free agents to augment a roster that has two centerpieces primed to hit the open market a year from now in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette?
And if the Red Sox don¡¯t land Soto, their clearer lineup construction need was a right-handed bat, anyway.
This, of course, doesn¡¯t even begin to address the myriad teams who aren¡¯t in on Soto but have a vested interest in the rest of the top-end position player pool. The Astros have already made an offer to Bregman. The Giants, Mariners, Braves, Tigers, Cubs and Nationals are all among the clubs that could pony up for an impact bat.
But free agency is just the beginning because ...
4. The trade market will percolate.
It¡¯s impossible to predict whether a significant swap will actually go down at these Meetings, but such deals will definitely be discussed, given the staggering price of free-agent pitching and the dearth of productive free-agent position players at spots that include third base (beyond Bregman), catcher and left and center field.
You¡¯re going to hear 10-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado¡¯s name a lot as the retooling Cardinals consider their trade options. The White Sox are not just discussing staff ace Garrett Crochet (a veritable lock to be moved with two years of contractual control remaining) with other clubs but also center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Interest in the Cubs¡¯ Cody Bellinger is also going to increase once the Soto deal goes down.
That¡¯s just the stuff we know about. There¡¯s plenty we don¡¯t.
5. Get ready for a bullpen bonanza.
Not a whole lot has happened here beyond Boston¡¯s deal with Aroldis Chapman, but it seems like the Winter Meetings are always prone to a rash of reliever signings.
Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman (who, like Clay Holmes in his new deal with the Mets, could be used as a starter), Carlos Est¨¦vez, Kirby Yates, David Robertson and Blake Treinen front that particular market, which is as important as ever after so many contenders had to burn through their bullpens to survive an injury-packed 2024.
6. Someone will say something wacky.
Last year, our Dodgers beat writer Juan Toribio missed the Winter Meetings. Apparently, he was getting married or something unimportant like that. So I filled in for him. And let me tell you: Dave Roberts was a writer¡¯s dream.
On the first day, Roberts let reporters know that Mookie Betts would be a full-time second baseman in 2024. Obviously, it didn¡¯t work out that way, but it was important news at the time¡ and it was perfect conversation fodder on an otherwise dull day. The next day, at a time when everybody associated with the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes was afraid to talk about it out of fear of upsetting Ohtani, Roberts blurted out that the Dodgers had recently met with the two-way superstar at Dodger Stadium. Watching the reaction spread through the building in the aftermath -- with Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes immediately fielding questions about whether his manager had just ruined his chances at signing Ohtani (spoiler: Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, anyway) -- was entertaining stuff.
You never know what someone might reveal at these Meetings, because these are often the first extensive sit-downs with skippers and front-office folks since the exit interviews at the conclusion of the season. Here¡¯s to more rousing revelations that warm our winter days.
7. We will (or at least should) get a new Hall of Famer or two.
The Classic Baseball Era ballot results will be revealed live from the Meetings on MLB Network at 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday. The small-committee process by which ¡°veterans¡± who were passed over by the BBWAA and managers and executives have their Hall of Fame cases heard is both mesmerizing and maddening. There are 16 people selected to vote in a given committee and eight people on the ballot. The votes are cast after drawn-out debates that take place behind closed doors and off the record. To get elected, a candidate must receive support from at least 12 of the 16 voters, but those voters can¡¯t vote for more than three people.
Good luck guessing how that turns out. This is not like the BBWAA ballot, where the voting body changes only marginally from year to year and many of the voters share their selections and thoughts before the results are revealed. On the contrary, this process, which this year will include Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Tony P¨¦rez, Lee Smith and Ozzie Smith among the voters, is totally unpredictable.
With the Classic Era focused on those whose primes came prior to 1980, this year¡¯s candidates are Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, John Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Tommy John, Dave Parker and Luis Tiant. In past small-committee votes, Allen, Harris, Donaldson, Parker and Garvey have all come within six votes of selection. Heck, Allen fell one vote shy ¡ twice! He deserves to get over the top, albeit posthumously. And while Tiant never got that close, one wonders if his recent passing might inspire some sentimental support.
8. There are no ice storms in the forecast.
Yay!