HOF ballot update: 7 big questions as announcement nears
In less than 10 days, we¡¯ll find out who the Baseball Writers¡¯ Association of America has elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame¡¯s Class of 2025, joining Classic Era Committee electees Dick Allen and Dave Parker.
Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux¡¯s Hall of Fame ballot tracker, we can keep up with how the voting is trending. And Jason Sardell, who has run simulations to project Hall of Fame vote totals for the past several years, has been providing periodic updates on projections for this year¡¯s candidates.
One thing is certain: the drama will be high as we anticipate the official announcement, which will be made live on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET on Jan. 21. We could see something we¡¯ve only seen once before in Hall of Fame history.
Only one player has been elected to the Hall of Fame with 100% of the vote (75% is needed for election). Mariano Rivera, the legendary Yankees closer who was inducted in 2019, received all 425 votes that year. He may have company in that exclusive club very soon.
Whether we¡¯ll see another unanimous selection is one of several big questions as we anticipate the results that will complete the Hall of Fame class to be inducted at Cooperstown on July 27.
Note: All vote percentages from the ballot tracker are current as of Saturday at 9 p.m. ET. All projections provided by Sardell are through 119 ballots input into Thibodaux¡¯s tracker as of Wednesday.
More history for Ichiro?
Ichiro Suzuki began making history the day he arrived in the Major Leagues. The first position player to make the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB, Ichiro quickly became a superstar. In 2001, he led the American League with a .350 batting average while leading all of baseball in hits (242) and steals (56).
He also dazzled defensively, winning the first of 10 consecutive Gold Glove Awards in right field. It all led to Ichiro becoming the second player to win his league¡¯s Rookie of the Year Award and MVP Award in the same year, joining Fred Lynn (1975). Three years later, Ichiro won his second batting title by hitting .372 while setting the all-time single-season hits record with 262. He would have a total of 3,089 hits over a 19-year MLB career.
Ichiro might be on the cusp of making even more history two decades later. So far, Thibodaux¡¯s tracker has Ichiro 126-for-126 on ballots with 32% known, on track to become the second player to be elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously.
First ballot? CC: CC
CC Sabathia has received 91.3% of the vote so far, and the former star left-hander is trending toward election in his first year of eligibility, with Sardell projecting him to finish at 88%.
Over an illustrious 19-year Major League career spent with Cleveland, the Brewers and the Yankees, Sabathia was a six-time All-Star, the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner, a top-five finisher in Cy Young voting five times, the 2009 AL Championship Series MVP and ¡¯09 World Series champion with New York.
Sabathia is a member of the 3,000 strikeout club (3,093) and won 251 games. A workhorse on the mound, the big southpaw threw at least 200 innings in a season eight times. He is one of two pitchers this century to throw 10 or more complete games in a season, doing so in 2008 (also James Shields, 11 in 2011).
Last chance for Wagner -- will he close the deal?
With 73.8% of the vote last year, former flamethrowing closer Billy Wagner just missed election to Cooperstown. Now he¡¯s on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot. Will he seal the deal?
Wagner is currently at 84.9%, and Sardell projects him to finish comfortably over the election threshold at 83%. He¡¯s been steadily gaining support over the years, making his biggest year-over-year jumps from 2019-20 (16.7% to 31.7%) and from 2022-23 (51% to 68.1%).
Eighth on the all-time saves list with 422 (two behind John Franco for seventh), Wagner was a seven-time All-Star and posted a 2.31 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate over 16 MLB seasons with the Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox and Braves.
In 1999, he finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting after turning in a 1.57 ERA with 39 saves for Houston.
Wagner had an even better campaign with Philadelphia in 2005, when he finished with a 1.51 ERA and 38 saves. In 2010 -- his final season in the Majors -- he posted a 1.43 ERA with 37 saves for Atlanta in his age-38 campaign.
Big boost for Beltr¨¢n?
On his second ballot last year, Carlos Beltrán received 57.1% of the vote, a 10.6% increase from his debut ballot. According to Sardell¡¯s projections, Beltr¨¢n -- who has surely had his Hall of Fame candidacy impacted by his involvement in the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal -- could come very close to election in 2025.
So far, Beltr¨¢n is polling at 77% on Thibodaux¡¯s tracker. Sardell projects he¡¯ll get to 72% when it¡¯s all said and done. The former outfielder, who played for the Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers during a 20-year career, belted 435 home runs with an .837 OPS. He was the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, a nine-time All-Star and a three-time Gold Glove Award winner.
Beltr¨¢n was legendary in the postseason. In 2004, he put together one of the greatest individual postseason performances of all time, producing a .435/.536/1.002 slash line with eight home runs in 10 games to help Houston reach the NLCS. Overall, he appeared in 65 career playoff games, posting a 1.021 OPS with 16 homers.
Given the way he¡¯s trending, it seems that it¡¯s only a matter of time before Beltr¨¢n is elected to the Hall of Fame. The question is, will that be this year?
Is time running out for Jones?
Andruw Jones was one of the greatest center fielders of his time, particularly on defense. He won 10 straight Gold Glove Awards with the Braves from 1998-2007 after becoming the youngest player to homer in a World Series game, going deep twice for Atlanta in Game 1 of the ¡¯96 Fall Classic at age 19. In a 17-year career, he launched 434 home runs, including a then-franchise record 51 in 2005.
Will that be enough to get into the Hall of Fame?
The clock is ticking, and Jones doesn¡¯t appear to be getting the type of surge he needs to get close to the 75 percent barrier in his eighth year of eligibility.
Last year, he received 61.6%, which was a 3.5% increase over 2023. In ¡¯23, he jumped from 41.4% to 58.1%, but he¡¯ll need another similar leap over his final three years of eligibility. Jones is currently at 73% in the HOF tracker, and Sardell projects he¡¯ll end up with 69% with two years left on the ballot.
Who makes the biggest jump?
Beltr¨¢n is currently about 20% over where he finished last year, but so far, he isn¡¯t enjoying the biggest jump in 2025 -- that would be former Phillies second baseman Chase Utley.
Utley is currently polling at 53.2% in the HOF tracker after finishing at 28.8% last year. Sardell has him finishing at 41%. That bodes well for a candidate on his second ballot.
Over a 16-year Major League career, Utley was a six-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger Award winner and a World Series champion with the Phillies in 2008. He hit 10 career postseason home runs, including five against the Yankees in the 2009 World Series alone.
According to Jay Jaffe¡¯s JAWS system, Utley compares favorably to the average Hall of Fame second baseman, with only 11 players at the keystone position ranked ahead of him all-time.
Which first-year candidates stay on the ballot?
There are 14 first-time candidates on the ballot this year, and so far, it appears four of them are going to be safe from the dreaded ¡°one-and-done¡± fate for falling short of 5%.
Ichiro, of course, is flirting with a unanimous selection, and Sabathia has a real shot to be elected on his first ballot. The other two are Félix Hernández and Dustin Pedroia, each of whom is unlikely to be elected this year, but so far polling well above 5%.
Hern¨¢ndez, who has received 26.2% of the vote so far in the tracker, is projected to finish at 22%. He was a six-time All-Star and the 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner. He also led the league in ERA twice (2.27 in 2010, and 2.14 in ¡¯14) and finished runner-up in Cy Young voting twice. He threw the 23rd perfect game in MLB history against the Rays on Aug. 15, 2012.
Pedroia, meanwhile, is currently polling at 11.9%, and he¡¯s projected to finish at 11%. The hard-nosed second baseman was a four-time All-Star and a four-time Gold Glove Award winner over 14 seasons with the Red Sox from 2006-19. He was the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and the 2008 AL MVP, helping Boston win the World Series in ¡¯07 and ¡¯13.
Among the remaining 10 first-time candidates, there are a handful who might either just miss or just make a second ballot -- Russell Martin (currently at 4.8%), Brian McCann (4%) and Ian Kinsler (3.2%).
The other seven -- Carlos González, Curtis Granderson, Adam Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Zobrist -- have yet to receive a vote.