5 players trending toward Hall of Fame elections
Of the 28 players on the Baseball Writers¡¯ Association of America¡¯s 2025 Hall of Fame ballot, three heard their names called when the results were announced Tuesday on MLB Network: Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner.
That trio also represents the differing paths Hall of Famers take to Cooperstown. While Suzuki and CC Sabathia cruised in on the first ballot, Wagner used up all 10 years of eligibility. As a ballot backlog cleared and more voters came around to Wagner¡¯s case, his fortunes changed rapidly. Wagner debuted at just 10.5% of the vote in 2016 -- the second-lowest percentage for an eventual BBWAA selection -- but after moving slowly in his first four years on the ballot, he rose from 16.7% to 82.5%.
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Ten of the candidates on the 2025 ballot did fall off, but 15 others will return in 2026, when the lack of first-timers on par with Suzuki or Sabathia should open the door to others gaining ground. (Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun and Alex Gordon are a few of the most prominent names who will be eligible for the first time.)
Among the returning players, here are five whose 2025 results have them trending toward eventual Hall induction. (Players are listed in descending order of 2025 vote percentage.)
Carlos Beltrán
2025 vote %: 70.3% (3rd year on ballot)
Increase from 2024: +13.2 points
Beltr¨¢n appears to have set himself up nicely to lead the Class of 2026. After debuting on the ballot with 46.5% of the vote in 2023, Beltr¨¢n now has increased his vote percentage by double digits two years in a row.
Some of that may be a growing appreciation of Beltr¨¢n¡¯s case, which includes 435 home runs, 312 stolen bases, nine All-Star selections, a Rookie of the Year Award and three Gold Glove Awards in center field. Some of it also may be voters softening their initial resistance to Beltr¨¢n due to his role in the 2017 Astros¡¯ sign-stealing scandal.
Either way, he will enter the 2026 cycle as the top returning vote-getter, well within range of the 75% needed for induction and no slam-dunk, first-year candidates to get in his way.
Andruw Jones
2025 vote %: 66.2% (8th year on ballot)
Increase from 2024: +4.6 points
The 2024 ballot was a bit of a setback for Jones, because while he did gain some ground, his momentum slowed considerably. The 10-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder debuted with just 7.3% of the vote in 2018, which would be the lowest for an eventual BBWAA selection if Jones ends up making it. But from 2020-23, Jones¡¯ support leapt by more than 50 percentage points across four cycles, with a gain of at least 7.5 points in each. In 2024, however, he inched up just 3.5 points, to 61.6%.
Jones at least picked up a bit of steam again this time around, and if he doesn¡¯t cross the 75% threshold in 2026, he should at least be set up to follow Wagner¡¯s lead as a final-ballot selection. Either way, Jones would be the first player born in Cura?ao to make the Hall of Fame. While Jones¡¯ early decline has hindered his progress somewhat -- he compiled just 1.7 WAR after his age-30 season -- his combination of elite up-the-middle defense and 434 homers seems to be resonating with the BBWAA voting body.
Chase Utley
2025 vote %: 39.8% (2nd year on ballot)
Increase from 2024: +11.0%
Utley is far from a traditional candidate due to his modest counting stats, which include 1,885 hits, 259 home runs and 154 stolen bases. However, his impressive peak and overall value give him a compelling new-school case, with Utley reaching 64.5 career WAR, including an average of 7.6 per season from 2005-10. Still, Utley¡¯s path toward Cooperstown was never going to be a quick one.
It was encouraging for Utley¡¯s chances that he pulled in close to 30% of the vote on his first ballot. That figure compares quite favorably to some recent Hall of Famers who also had to gradually win over voters, including Larry Walker (20.3%), Mike Mussina (20.3%), Todd Helton (16.5%) and Scott Rolen (10.2%). It¡¯s even more encouraging that Utley flipped quite a few ¡°no¡± votes to ¡°yes¡± votes his second time around, showing that his candidacy has some momentum. That puts him in position to challenge the 50% mark in Year 3.
Andy Pettitte
2025 vote %: 27.9% (7th year on ballot)
Increase from 2024: +14.4%
Pettitte is a fascinating case because he managed no real push toward induction on any of his first six ballots. In fact, he actually lost some support after reaching a high of 17.0% in 2023.
However, the tide seemed to turn this time around. Perhaps it was his former rotation-mate and left-handed starter Sabathia joining the ballot that gave Pettitte a boost, considering that the two pitchers wound up with eerily similar career numbers. Sabathia did have a higher, Cy Young Award-winning peak -- hence his first-ballot election -- but Pettitte also boasts as prolific a postseason resume as anyone.
With that said, Pettitte is still quite far away from induction, with only three chances remaining on the BBWAA ballot. Can he build on this surge in 2026, now that Sabathia is in the Hall? It is worth noting that in recent years, candidates such as Walker (21.9% in his seventh year) and Edgar Martinez (27.0% in his sixth year) have managed sudden climbs to Cooperstown over their final three or four cycles, so it¡¯s hardly outlandish to think Pettitte¡¯s fortunes could follow suit.
Félix Hernández
2025 vote %: 20.6% (1st year on ballot)
Increase from 2024: N/A
There is no trend to follow for Hern¨¢ndez, given that this was his first opportunity. However, in a similar vein to Utley in 2024, it¡¯s fair to say that King F¨¦lix¡¯s performance in his ballot debut is a positive indicator suggesting that he might ultimately have a real shot at reaching 75%, even if it takes a while to get there.
Again like Utley, this is a player who was one of the absolute best in baseball over a significant peak and became a beloved franchise icon, but who did not sustain that for long enough to collect the numbers typically associated with a Cooperstown-worthy resume. Hern¨¢ndez didn¡¯t reach 200 career wins or 3,000 strikeouts, and his 49.9 career WAR is hardly eye-catching, either. (And while it¡¯s hardly his fault, he never pitched in the postseason.)
Given that, there was some concern about Hern¨¢ndez even collecting 5% of the vote just to stay on the ballot. It turns out that concern was unfounded, and with voter attitudes toward starting pitchers changing along with usage patterns, Hern¨¢ndez now has a shot to ride that wave.