What does Paul Skenes have in store for an encore after winning National League Rookie of the Year in 2024?
A Cy Young Award? How about MVP? Nothing is off the table for the 22-year-old who is already one of the game's most overpowering arms.
Last season, Skenes and the Yankees' Luis Gil were named Rookie of the Year in their respective league, bringing the total number of starting pitchers who have won that award to 28. Some of those pitchers built upon their rookie-year success the following season while others fell well short of expectations. We already know Gil will miss a large chunk of the 2025 season due to a right lat strain. But with Skenes, anything seems possible. Once the book is closed on his second year, he could find himself very high up on the list below.
From one through 26, here is a ranking of the best follow-up seasons from starting pitchers after winning Rookie of the Year.
1. Dwight Gooden, 1985 Mets
You can quibble about where other pitchers rank on this list, but this is indisputable: Gooden had the best follow-up season for any starter who won a Rookie of the Year Award. Actually, this is one of the best seasons from any starting pitcher in the Live-Ball Era (since 1920). Gooden's 12.2 bWAR is the greatest from any AL/NL hurler during that period, and his 1.53 ERA is second only to Bob Gibson's record-setting 1.12 ERA for the 1968 Cardinals.
At just 20 years old, Gooden won a Triple Crown with that tiny ERA, 24 wins and 268 strikeouts. He was also the youngest winner of the Cy Young Award. He had essentially locked up the Cy before September even started, but his final month was a grand finale: six starts, three complete games, 53 innings, two earned runs allowed.
2. Herb Score, 1956 Cleveland
Score's 245 strikeouts in 1955 were a rookie record until Gooden burst onto the scene in '84. Score struck out 263 batters in his sophomore season and paced the Majors in strikeout-per-nine-innings rate (9.5) for the second straight year. Surrounded by future Hall of Famers Bob Feller, Early Wynn and Bob Lemon, the 23-year-old Score was the most productive pitcher of the bunch. No qualified hurler had a better ERA+ (166), FIP (2.78) or hits-per-nine-innings rate (5.8) in 1956.
It looked like Cleveland had another future Hall of Famer in its midst. However, Score's career was forever altered on May 7, 1957, when he was struck in the face by a line drive. He pitched to a 4.43 ERA from 1958-62 before retiring.
3. Jacob deGrom, 2015 Mets
Surprisingly few pitchers in this group pitched in the postseason in their ROY follow-up. Even fewer were successful in the playoffs. deGrom, conversely, put himself in the Mets' postseason record book in 2015. His 13 strikeouts against the Dodgers in NLDS Game 1 tied Tom Seaver for the most K's by a Mets pitcher in a playoff game. And that was deGrom's playoff debut.
Oh, and deGrom was brilliant during the regular season, too. He struck out 205 batters and posted a 2.54 ERA across 191 innings. His 0.98 WHIP ranked fifth among qualified pitchers, and his 22.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate sat seventh.
4. Tom Seaver, 1968 Mets
Tom Terrific's second season would stand as a career pinnacle for most pitchers. At 23 years old, Seaver registered a 2.20 ERA and 205 strikeouts over 278 innings. He made his second All-Star team, compiled 6.8 bWAR and had a 137 ERA+. But because this is Tom Seaver we're talking about, this was maybe his fourth- or fifth-best season within his first 10 years in the league. This was the only year from 1967-73 that Seaver didn't finish inside the top 10 of the NL Cy Young voting. He would get his first Cy Young -- and a World Series title with the Mets -- in '69. This '68 season did start Seaver's streak of nine consecutive 200-K seasons. No other pitcher has as many such seasons within their first 10 MLB years.
5. John Montefusco, 1976 Giants
There were only 1,369 people in the stands at Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium on Sept. 29, 1976, to watch what Montefusco said was the greatest moment of his career. In his final start of the season, Montefusco threw a no-hitter against the Braves and faced only one batter above the minimum. A fourth-inning walk to Jerry Royster was the only thing that kept the outing from being perfect. It was the fantastic finishing touch on a season that saw Montefusco lead the NL with 6.9 bWAR and six shutouts. His 2.84 ERA and 253 1/3 innings pitched were also career-bests.
6. Fernando Valenzuela, 1982 Dodgers
Talk about a tough act to follow. Because of Valenzuela's tremendous on-field success and profound cultural impact as a rookie, it was impossible to expect him to be better the following year. And he wasn't better -- but he was still pretty dang good. The 21-year-old lefty ranked among the top 10 in the NL in innings (285, third), ERA (2.87, fifth), strikeouts (199, fifth) and bWAR (5.0, 10th). He tied for third in that year's NL Cy Young voting. And on a quirky note, Valenzuela also made his first and only appearance as an outfielder in the 20th inning of a game against the Cubs.
7. Gary Peters, 1964 White Sox
Peters' rookie season was actually his fifth year in the Majors as he got into a handful of games with the White Sox from 1959-1962. Following his breakout campaign in '63, Peters experienced a bit of a bumpy beginning to '64. He carried a 3.78 ERA and a 4.77 FIP through his first 11 starts. But after June 9, Peters logged respective marks of 2.09 and 2.79 in those categories across 207 innings. He limited hitters to a .564 OPS through his final 26 outings. A 20-game winner who made the All-Star team and also helped his cause by hitting four home runs, Peters finished seventh in the American League MVP voting.
8. Hideo Nomo, 1996 Dodgers
Much like Valenzuela, Nomo was a transcendent talent who set an impossibly high bar for himself to clear in the season after claiming Rookie of the Year with the Dodgers. Nomo's statistics were good -- 3.19 ERA over a career-high 228 1/3 innings, a 122 ERA+, 234 strikeouts -- but most of them were a step down from his debut season.
However, Nomo had two games in 1996 that were among the best by any pitcher in the Majors that year. On April 13, his third start of the season, Nomo went the distance and struck 17 Marlins, which tied for the third-most K's in a single game by a Dodgers pitcher. Then on September 17, his third-to-last start of the season, Nomo accomplished something even more improbable: A no-hitter at Coors Field.
9. Jon Matlack, 1973 Mets
Imagine suffering a fractured skull after a line drive is hit off of your forehead but then pitching six scoreless innings just 11 days later. That's what Matlack did in May 1973. His 3.20 ERA at season's end didn't turn heads, but his 205 strikeouts did. That lasted as the Mets' franchise record for strikeouts by a left-handed pitcher for 35 years until Johan Santana topped it with 206 K's in 2008.
Matlack was also fantastic during New York's run to the '73 World Series. He allowed three runs (all unearned) over his first three playoff starts, spanning 23 innings. After tossing eight innings in a Game 4 victory, Matlack was called upon to start Game 7 of the Fall Classic on short rest. He was out of the game by the third inning, however, after serving up two-run homers to Bert Campaneris and Reggie Jackson that propelled the A's to their second of three consecutive championships.
10. Michael Fulmer, 2017 Tigers
If Fulmer had been able to make it through his 2017 season unscathed, he would likely be a little higher up on this list. Through his first 18 starts, he was one of the best pitchers in the Junior Circuit. He had a 3.06 ERA with a .597 opponents' OPS and had permitted only seven home runs in 123 2/3 frames. He was also selected to the All-Star Game for the first time. Alas, Fulmer began experiencing right elbow problems shortly after that Midsummer Classic, and his performance suffered as a result. He posted a 6.15 ERA over his final seven starts before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery in September.
11. Mark Fidrych, 1977 Tigers
Baseball's version of a comet, Fidrych burned bright before he burned out. His 1976 rookie season included a start in the All-Star Game, a runner-up finish for the AL Cy Young and 9.6 bWAR. It also had 250 innings and 24 complete games. A knee injury in Spring Training delayed Fidrych's 1977 season debut until May 27, but once he was back on the mound, it looked like a repeat of '76.
"The Bird" was superb across his first eight starts, producing a 1.83 ERA and a 2.19 FIP. He also had seven complete games. All of that work seemed to take an immense toll on the 22-year-old, and arm troubles eventually forced him to be shut down in mid-July. Fidrych pitched 81 innings in his second big league season -- the same number of innings he would throw over the next three seasons before his career ended.
12. Don Newcombe, 1950 Dodgers
The first pitcher to win Rookie of the Year honors, Newcombe's follow-up season was bookended by matchups against a fellow future Hall of Famer, the Phillies' Robin Roberts. It wasn't much of a matchup on Opening Day as Newcombe was knocked around for four runs in one-plus inning of work. The season finale saw both legends work into the 10th inning, but Roberts came out on top once again in a game that sealed the pennant for Philadelphia.
Those disappointing days aside, Newcombe was stellar in 1950, producing 3.5 bWAR and a 3.70 ERA through 267 1/3 innings. He earned his second All-Star selection in July and about a month later, he embarked on a streak of 41 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run.
13. Jos¨¦ Fern¨˘ndez, 2014 Marlins
Following a spectacular rookie year in which he finished third for the NL Cy Young, Fern¨˘ndez was the Marlins' Opening Day starter in 2014. At just 21 years old, the Cuban phenom rolled through his first seven starts with incredible dominance. He recorded 65 strikeouts and a scant 1.74 ERA through his first 46 2/3 innings. In April, Fern¨˘ndez made franchise history as the first Marlins pitcher to have back-to-back starts with double-digit strikeouts and no walks. But soon after a six-run appearance against the Padres on May 9, the right-hander was informed that he needed Tommy John surgery. Fern¨˘ndez's second season was over after just 51 2/3 frames.
14. Jeremy Hellickson, 2012 Rays
The first start of Hellickson's second full season in the Majors just happened to fall on his 25th birthday. He celebrated by putting forth what would be his best performance of the year: 8 2/3 scoreless frames in a win over the Yankees. Hellickson was steady throughout 2012, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 27 of his 31 starts. He completed the season with a 3.10 ERA and a 124 ERA+ across 177 innings. He also became the first Rays pitcher to receive a Gold Glove.
15. Dave Righetti, 1982 Yankees
Facing Righetti in 1982 could not have been a comfortable at-bat for anyone. He had the AL's best K/9 rate (8.0), but he also led the league with 108 walks. Righetti's lack of command earned him a trip back to the Minors for about three weeks during the middle of the season. He made a few relief appearances upon his return to the Yankees in late July and eventually lowered his BB/9 rate to 3.9 over his final 12 starts. That may not seem like anything special, but it was much better than his 6.4 BB/9 rate prior to his demotion. On the whole, Righetti was a slightly-above-average pitcher in '82, boasting a 105 ERA+ through 183 innings.
16. Dontrelle Willis, 2004 Marlins
Willis was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2003 and the runner-up for the NL Cy Young in 2005. That middle year? It was kind of a mixed bag. It started off well enough for the left-hander with the singular windup and luminescent smile as Willis gave up just two earned runs through his first four starts. But following that span of 25 1/3 innings, the 22-year-old was very inconsistent and posted a 4.51 ERA over his remaining 171 2/3 frames. Batters hit .283 and had a .779 OPS in those 28 starts.
17. Jack Sanford, 1958 Phillies
Sanford was the Major League leader in strikeouts as a rookie in 1957, finishing with 188 K's, just ahead of future Hall of Famers Early Wynn and Jim Bunning. But Sanford never again came close to matching that total and saw his K/9 rate plummet from 7.1 to 5.1 in '58. He struck out just 106 batters in 186 1/3 innings that year. As his ERA surpassed 4.50 in August, Sanford became more of a reliever than a starter for the Phillies. He did come through with a 10-strikeout shutout in his final game of the season, but Philadelphia had seen enough and traded Sanford to the Giants in December.
18. Stan Bahnsen, 1969 Yankees
Ted Williams once said that Bahnsen is "the hardest thrower in the league." Bahnsen used his hard fastball to strike out 162 batters and record a fabulous 2.05 ERA across 267 2/3 innings as a rookie for the Yankees. But change was coming to MLB. After the 1968 season -- known as "The Year of the Pitcher" -- all mounds were lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches high. Bahnsen, who spoke out against the change, struggled on the shorter mounds in 1969. He allowed 28 homers, twice as many as he had allowed in '68. His strikeout rate dropped, his ERA nearly doubled (3.83), and he finished the year with a 9-16 record.
19. Pat Zachry, 1977 Reds/Mets
Zachry's biggest moment in '77 had nothing to do with anything on the field. One year after taking home NL Rookie of the Year and winning the World Series with the Reds, the right-hander was traded in June to the last-place Mets as part of the package for Tom Seaver. Zachry was dealt after recording a 5.04 ERA over 12 starts with Cincinnati, struggles that were exacerbated by elbow soreness. Yet he continued to pitch through the pain and was a little bit better over 119 2/3 frames with New York. He shut out the Braves at Shea Stadium on Sept. 2 and ended the year with a 4.25 ERA across 194 2/3 innings (90 ERA+).
20. Jason Jennings, 2003 Rockies
Jennings' 16 wins in 2002 were really the backbone of his Rookie of the Year case. In 2003, he didn't get as much win-loss luck, going 12-13. He also saw his BB/9 rate rise by a full walk, from 3.4 to 4.4, and that contributed to his ERA going from 4.52 to 5.11. Jennings began his season by allowing eight runs and three homers over four innings in a loss to the Astros. By the end, he had accumulated all of 0.1 bWAR.
21. Don Schwall, 1962 Red Sox
A little more than two months after he made his MLB debut on May 21, Schwall found himself pitching in the second 1961 All-Star Game. He went 15-7 with a 3.22 ERA to win AL Rookie of the Year, although he did walk 110 batters in 178 2/3 innings.
Schwall's control was even worse in '62 as he handed out 121 walks in 182 1/3 frames. That combined with his 89 strikeouts resulted in a minus-3.8% K-BB rate. That is, as they say, not what you want. Schwall's ERA ballooned to 4.94 and he produced minus-1.1 bWAR. The Pennsylvania native was traded to the Pirates that November.
22. Bob Grim, 1955 Yankees
Grim spent 1952 and '53 in the Marines and fighting in the Korean War. He then made his Major League debut the next year, and he remains the most recent AL rookie to win 20 games in a season. However, right elbow pain cropped up on Grim in '55 and would persist throughout his eight-year career, eventually contributing to his move to the bullpen. (Grim was an All-Star reliever for the Yankees in 1957 when he led MLB with 19 saves.)
As for his follow-up season, Grim had a 5.25 ERA through 11 starts. He drew a 12th start against the Dodgers in a pivotal Game 5 of the 1955 World Series. With the series tied at 2-2, Grim took the loss at Ebbets Field, giving up four runs in six innings. The Dodgers ultimately captured their first World Series title with a Game 7 triumph two days later.
23. Harry Byrd, 1953 A's
Byrd's 1952 rookie year didn't start out great, but he won Rookie of the Year on the back of a strong second half. From July 14 on, he had a 2.61 ERA over his final 21 appearances (18 starts). The next year, he stumbled in the first half again -- and just kept stumbling. From July 14 on, he had a 7.46 ERA over his final 19 appearances (17 starts). Byrd's ERA was 5.51 at season's end, and he led the Majors with 20 losses and 145 earned runs allowed.
24. Carl Morton, 1971 Expos
After Morton produced a 3.60 ERA over 284 2/3 innings to earn the 1970 NL Rookie of the Year Award, the Expos tabbed him as their Opening Day starter in '71. It was a matchup against the Mets' Tom Seaver, marking the first time the reigning Rookie of the Year matched up against a Cy Young winner on Opening Day. Morton, like so many others, was not as good as Seaver on that day as he permitted four runs (two earned) and 10 baserunners across 4 2/3 innings in a rain-shortened loss for Montreal. That set the table for a rough season for Morton, who finished 1971 with a 4.80 ERA through 213 2/3 innings (73 ERA+) and minus-1.9 bWAR.
25. Rick Sutcliffe, 1980 Dodgers
Sutcliffe's solid 18-year career included 2,697 2/3 innings, 171 regular-season victories, three All-Star appearances, an ERA title in 1982 and an NL Cy Young Award two years later. But his 1980 season shouldn't be anywhere near his personal highlight reel. He was pulled out of the Dodgers' rotation in early May after recording an 8.33 ERA and allowing a .974 opponents' OPS through his first six starts.
Sutcliffe had better results in the bullpen and ended up notching five of his six career saves. He would make four starts over the course of the next four-plus months. In three of them, he allowed 17 combined runs through 14 1/3 frames. The lone remaining start? That was a three-hit shutout against the Astros on June 23. Baseball is weird.
26. Kerry Wood, 1999 Cubs
It's a little unfair to place this former Cubs phenom last, but there's really nowhere else to put him. That's because Wood didn't throw a single pitch in the season after he won Rookie of the Year. He tore the UCL in his right elbow during Spring Training in 1999 and underwent Tommy John surgery that April. He wouldn't return to a big league mound until May 2000.