1 bold prediction for each division entering the 2025 season

The Dodgers and Cubs will open the 2025 season with the two-game?Tokyo Series?on March 18-19. We¡¯ll be counting down to that date with our annual preview series, with each story looking ahead to the coming season by breaking down a particular topic, division by division.

Previously: The most likely award winners in each division
Today: A bold prediction for each division

We are close enough now to the start of the season that we need to start making some predictions. And we understand that there are expectations for our predictions: They need to be zesty! They need to go out on a limb!

Thus, today, as part of our ongoing season preview series, we make a big, bold prediction for each division. It¡¯s easy to pick the Dodgers to win the NL West. We¡¯re taking more risks here today.

AL EAST

The Yankees will miss the postseason
That¡¯s the sort of sentence you type and then feel like you should duck afterward. But it¡¯s not that crazy of a notion. First of all, it¡¯s possible that every other team in this division will be improved from 2024. The Red Sox may have had one of the best offseasons in the sport, the Orioles¡¯ youngsters should take a step forward, the Blue Jays are all-in for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.¡¯s final season of club control and the Rays have Shane McClanahan back and all sorts of young talent emerging, as usual.

As active, and successful, as the Yankees were in adding players in the wake of losing Juan Soto, this team still has plenty of questions, particularly in that lineup (which was the case even before concerning injury news surfaced about Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu). The upshot: It sure does look like Aaron Judge is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting.

The question always looms over this franchise: What if something happens to Judge? He¡¯s a player who has dealt with injury issues in the past, he¡¯s getting older (turning 33 on April 26) and, lest you forget, he¡¯s huge. And if the Yankees lose Judge for any period of time ¡­ they kind of look like they¡¯d be toast? Don¡¯t forget, when Judge was limited to 106 games in 2023, this team went only 82-80, including 25-31 without him.

That¡¯s a lot riding on one player. It¡¯s going to be hard enough to repeat with him. The fall would be dramatic without him.

AL CENTRAL

This division will have one playoff team
Not counting the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the AL Central had not sent multiple teams to the postseason since 2017. That is, until Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City all made it in 2024. A large part of the reason for that? They all played in the same division as the White Sox, who set a Modern Era record with 121 losses (those three playoff teams went a combined 30-9 against the Pale Hose).

The White Sox won¡¯t be as bad in 2025 as they were last year -- right? right? -- which is going to take away some wins right there. But there¡¯s actually reason to be a little concerned about all three of those clubs on their own. The Royals may have overperformed last year and still don¡¯t look like they have enough offense. The Tigers missed out on opportunities to add substantially to their exciting young core. The Guardians didn¡¯t add much of anything (as usual).

Heck, you could make an argument that the favorite in this division maybe should be the other team in this division that missed the playoffs last year: the Twins (who are currently projected by FanGraphs to win the division). Either way, those Wild Card spots for the non-division champions may not be so readily available this year. Eighty-six wins (last year¡¯s total for both the Royals and Tigers) might not do it this time.

AL WEST

Julio Rodr¨ªguez is going to win the AL MVP Award
After the Mariners reached the playoffs in 2022, ending a 20-season absence, it seemed to be the start of a sustained run of success in Seattle. Instead, the Mariners haven¡¯t been back to October since, finishing a combined three games out of the playoffs in those two seasons.

One of the quieter subplots to those relative disappointments is that Rodr¨ªguez, while remaining a highly productive player overall, hasn¡¯t quite ascended to becoming a ¡°Best Player in Baseball¡± contender like we thought he would. He¡¯s actually declined a little each season: He put up a 147 OPS+ in 2022, a 130 in 2023 and a 116 last year. These are all above-average numbers, of course, but they¡¯re not transcendent in the way everyone had expected. The major issue has been power: He hit just 20 homers and 17 doubles last season.

Rodr¨ªguez obviously has more power than that, even in that ballpark. We have seen what he can do in spurts -- in July 2024 he hit .375 and slugged .688 -- and, not coincidentally, those have been the Mariners¡¯ best moments. Julio is still only 24 years old, and he's still Julio. One of these years he¡¯s going to put together a whole season of spurts like that. Here's guessing this is that year.

NL EAST

The Braves will earn the top postseason seed
Was there a team in baseball last year that could have dealt with the cavalcade of injuries that the Braves dealt with and still made the playoffs? The fact they made it as far as they did speaks to the strength of their roster when healthy.

While neither Ronald Acu?a Jr. nor Spencer Strider is expected to be quite ready for Opening Day, most of the rest of the wounded Braves should be back at full strength, and those two will be back soon enough. And in case you forget: The Braves are absolutely stacked. The Mets and the Dodgers made all the headlines this offseason, but don¡¯t be surprised if the Braves end up with home-field advantage throughout October.

NL CENTRAL

The Reds will finish ahead of the Cubs
Cincinnati has a ton of young talent, but that has been the case for a while now, and they still haven¡¯t won a playoff game since ¡­ wow, 2012? But I dunno. They¡¯ve got Terry Francona now, which automatically makes you want to take them more seriously. They¡¯ve got an ace in Hunter Greene. They¡¯ve got some fascinating young players who seem ready to pivot into established big leaguers like Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Nick Lodolo. And perhaps most of all, they have an MVP candidate, and truly transcendent superstar, in Elly De La Cruz, the sort of player who can elevate an entire team with a hot streak at the right time.

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Meanwhile, the Cubs certainly were aggressive in bringing in Kyle Tucker. But all the moves they made -- or didn¡¯t make -- in the wake of that trade have made them more vulnerable than they should be. They traded away Cody Bellinger. They fell short in their pursuit of Alex Bregman. They didn¡¯t do nearly as much as they could have to bolster their rotation. They¡¯re counting a LOT on Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, as well as rookie Matt Shaw.

The Cubs could have locked this division down, but their flaws and holes are as apparent as they were before the Tucker trade. The Reds, meanwhile, might be the team that has the most room to grow in the whole division. I might end up picking the Brewers above both of these teams, but don¡¯t be shocked if the Reds surprise.

NL WEST

The Dodgers will have their lowest winning percentage in at least 7 years
Now, this is not that bold of a proclamation, just because the bar here is so high. This is a team that regularly wins 100 games or more (their win totals in the last five full seasons: 98, 100, 111, 106 and 106, and their 2020 winning percentage was higher than in any of those years). It¡¯s not that hard to fall below those numbers.

But could they fall all the way to the 92 wins they had in 2018? Or the 91 in 2016? You can make the case for it, despite their aggressive offseason. This team has, rather quietly, gotten a lot older than you probably think it is: The only likely starting position player for this team who will be under age 30 on Memorial Day is Hyeseong Kim, and he could start the season in the Minors. That¡¯s asking for trouble right there, and that¡¯s not even accounting for the rotation, which is obviously deep but also full of guys who aren¡¯t known for throwing many innings.

The Dodgers are stacked enough to have other options, and they have resources and ambition to add at every opportunity. This is still going to be a terrific team. But you don¡¯t have to squint to see holes. Here¡¯s guessing they won¡¯t be nearly as dominant as everybody expects. The good news? Those ¡°down¡± seasons in 2018 and 2016? They won the NL West those years, too.