It takes 75% of the vote for the Baseball Writers¡¯ Association of America (BBWAA) to elect a player to the Hall of Fame, so you might think that a candidate debuting far from that three-quarters mark would signal doom for his chances.

Historically, that has mostly been true. But not always -- and certainly not in the present day. In recent years, we have seen a lot of voters show a willingness to change their minds, whether that¡¯s due to an evolving understanding of advanced statistics, determined social media campaigns by supporters, or even the transparency that comes with a significant portion of voters revealing their ballots publicly.

BBWAA voting returned to being an annual exercise in 1966, and since then, eight players who started out getting 21% of the vote or less eventually reached Cooperstown. Three did so before the eligibility window was trimmed from 15 years down to 10. But that still leaves five players who have debuted on the ballot since 2011, gotten no more than roughly one in five votes initially, and still reached the Hall by their 10th year:

• Scott Rolen: Started at 10.2% | Elected in 6th year (2023)
• Billy Wagner: Started at 10.5% | Elected in 10th year (2025)
• Todd Helton: Started at 16.5% | Elected in 6th year (2024)
• Mike Mussina: Started at 20.3% | Elected in 6th year (2019)
• Larry Walker: Started at 20.3% | Elected in 10th year (2020)

So that¡¯s three years in a row, and five out of seven, in which a candidate completed a long journey up the ballot. Not only is this possible now -- it¡¯s become a regular occurrence. (It¡¯s also worth keeping in mind that some of this may be due to these players dealing with overcrowded ballots early in their runs, an issue that has significantly, if not entirely, abated since then.)

Still, let¡¯s assume the trend continues. Of the 15 players returning to the ballot for 2026, 10 received between 5-21% of the vote in their first opportunity. (Any less than 5% and they would have fallen off the ballot.) Here is a ranking of those 10 players by how likely they seem to join the list of recent Hall of Famer high risers.

Each player below is listed with his first-year vote percentage and 2025 vote percentage (if different).

1. Andruw Jones
From 7.3% to 66.2% (8th year)

It¡¯s true that, after four years of significant gains, Jones¡¯ progress has slowed. The 10-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder has ticked up by a modest 8.1 percentage points over the past two cycles. If that recent pace continues, he¡¯d fall just a bit short. Is it it possible that Jones is bumping against his ceiling as a candidate, given his less-than-spectacular offensive rate stats (111 career OPS+) and early decline? Perhaps. But it seems far more likely that with a cleared-up ballot in 2026 -- Cole Hamels and Ryan Braun lead the list of first-time eligible players -- Jones will get over the line. If not, he should at least get close enough that, like Wagner this year, his final-year election becomes practically assured.

2. Félix Hernández
20.6% (1st year)

It¡¯s not hard to make a case against Hern¨¢ndez, who finished his career with only 169 wins (and 49.9 bWAR), was pretty much done as an effective pitcher at age 30 and never appeared in the postseason. The case for him is less simple, but it¡¯s there, and it comes within the context that the BBWAA¡¯s options moving forward are 1) Dramatically reconsider what it means to be a Hall-worthy starting pitcher, or 2) Stop electing starters, once the Greinke-Kershaw-Scherzer-Verlander wave passes through over the next several years. That King F¨¦lix got more than one in five votes in Year 1 on the ballot shows that there is some openness to Option 1. He is almost certain to move up -- the question is how much and how quickly.

3. Dustin Pedroia
11.9% (1st year)

As a second baseman, Pedroia fits in somewhere between Chase Utley, who debuted at 28.8% and just got nearly 40% of the vote in his second year, and Ian Kinsler, who got 2.5% of the vote and fell off the ballot in his debut. Pedroia is a good bit behind Utley statistically, but he does own a lot more hardware, as the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year, 2008 AL MVP, a four-time Gold Glove Award winner and a key part of two World Series winners. If Utley continues to climb, will he pull Pedroia along with him? Both were top-five MLB position players by WAR over a 10-season stretch (Utley from 2005-14, Pedroia from 2007-16), so if enough voters come around to the idea of focusing on peak performance, Pedroia could climb. He certainly has time to do so.

4. Andy Pettitte
From 9.9% to 27.9% (7th year)

One year ago, it looked like Pettitte was going nowhere. Then he more than doubled his vote percentage this year, from 13.5%, tying Carlos Beltr¨¢n for the highest net gain among returning voters (plus-26), per Ryan Thibodaux¡¯s Hall of Fame ballot tracker. Pettitte still has three more ballots, and there won¡¯t be much competition from other starting pitchers on any of them, with Pettitte¡¯s former teammate CC Sabathia a first-ballot selection this year. That raises the possibility that Pettitte¡¯s path could end up looking like that of Walker, who never topped 22.9% his first seven times on the ballot before voters suddenly coalesced around his candidacy. (One potential stumbling block, however: Pettitte was named in the Mitchell Report and afterward admitted to using human growth hormone.)

5. Jimmy Rollins
From 9.4% to 18.0% (4th year)

Unlike his longtime Phillies double play partner Utley, Rollins has yet to really capture voters¡¯ attention. While he has gained support each time on the ballot, he¡¯s moved up by less than 9 percentage points in total since his debut. Rollins¡¯ relatively modest WAR total (47.6) makes him something of a tough case, despite his MVP Award, four Gold Glove Awards, World Series ring and combo of 231 homers and 470 steals. On the other hand, two of Rollins¡¯ other former teammates, Rolen and Wagner, show that you can¡¯t completely count him out.

6. Bobby Abreu
From 5.5% to 19.5% (6th year)

Here we have another former Phillies stalwart who has gradually gained some modest support without making a serious move up the ranks. Could Abreu follow the lead of Walker -- a contemporary and fellow power-speed right fielder -- and suddenly generate a huge push over his final few years? Frankly, it¡¯s difficult to see. Yes, Abreu¡¯s numbers are a lot more impressive than you might think based on his reputation. Yet Walker was both a much more decorated player during his career and also an even more appealing new-school case, with nearly 73 career WAR.

7. David Wright
From 6.2% to 8.1% (2nd year)

Wright has somewhat narrowly stayed on the ballot in his first two years, which has at least bought him time. With that said, Wright gaining only about 2 percentage points in Year 2 was not a positive sign that he is going to win over enough voters to his case, which relies heavily on peak excellence over career production. A couple of more strong seasons likely would have put Wright on at least an Utley-esque toward Cooperstown, but injuries held him to just 77 games played after his 31st birthday.

8. Francisco Rodríguez
From 10.8% to 10.2% (3rd year)

Now we¡¯re into the candidates who haven¡¯t made progress at all. Unlike fellow closers Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon, who both went one and done, K-Rod has at least remained on the ballot. That¡¯s likely thanks to the fact that he holds the single-season record for saves (62 in 2008) while ranking sixth on the all-time list (437). Rodr¨ªguez¡¯s first three years as a candidate actually look a lot like Wagner¡¯s, as the lefty also hovered in the 10-11% range. In that sense, it might seem like Rodr¨ªguez could continue following in Wagner¡¯s footsteps, but his overall resume (saves aside) isn¡¯t nearly as strong.

9. Mark Buehrle
From 11.0% to 11.4% (5th year)

Buehrle was a solid pitcher for a long time, and his durability, consistency and skill at fielding his position were all admirable qualities. On the other hand, that may not be quite enough to pique most voters¡¯ interest, even given the shift in attitudes toward starting pitchers. Buehrle didn¡¯t have Sabathia¡¯s statistical milestones, Hern¨¢ndez¡¯s lengthy Cy-winning peak or Pettitte¡¯s extensive postseason resume, and that probably explains why his vote percentage has bounced around between 5-12% for five years now.

10. Torii Hunter
From 9.5% to 5.1% (6th year)

Hunter got 9.5% of the vote in his ballot debut, and that remains his personal best. In 2025, he actually had a net loss of three votes from returning voters, tied with Manny Ramirez for the most on the ballot. In fact, he was one vote away from falling off the ballot entirely this time.