This ballot trend could help Pedroia punch his ticket to Cooperstown

5:55 PM UTC

This story was excerpted from Ian Browne¡¯s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- There was Billy Wagner on Tuesday, overcome by tears of joy after at last gaining entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame on his 10th and final year on the BBWAA ballot.

At his home in Arizona, Dustin Pedroia wasn¡¯t crying. But there¡¯s a decent chance he had a smile on his face.

Wagner¡¯s decade on the Hall of Fame ballot served as the most recent example of how much the results can fluctuate through the years.

In 2016, Wagner¡¯s first year of Hall of Fame eligibility, he received 10.5 percent of the votes. A candidate needs 75 percent of the votes to become a Hall of Famer, and Wagner earned his trip to Cooperstown with an 82.5 percent mark on Tuesday.

Pedroia, in his first year on the ballot, received 47 of a possible 394 votes for 11.9 percent. That accomplished something vital -- keeping Pedroia on the ballot in 2026. A candidate stays on the ballot for 10 years, provided he never drops below five percent.

Wagner joined third baseman Scott Rolen (10.3 percent in 2018) as the only players to get elected into the Hall via the BBWAA ballot after getting less than 15 percent of the vote in Year One.

However, that club is likely to grow in the coming years as writers continue to get more open-minded about what it takes to be a Hall of Famer.

Look for an even more dramatic fluctuation than the ones Rolen and Wagner had by next year, as all signs are pointing toward Andruw Jones punching his ticket to the Hall of Fame.

Jones, who had 10 Gold Glove Awards and five All-Star appearances, got 7.3 percent in his first year of eligibility and 7.5 in his second year. But on Tuesday, his eighth year of eligibility, Jones spiked to 66.2 percent.

With no first-ballot Hall of Famers expected next year, it stands to reason that Carlos Beltran and Jones -- who finished fourth and fifth on this year¡¯s ballot behind new electees Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia and Wagner -- are the most likely to be on that stage in Cooperstown in the summer of 2026.

Another case that should give Pedroia hope is 2020 electee Larry Walker, who garnered 10.2 percent in his fourth year on the ballot and was just below Pedroia¡¯s first-year percentage with 11.9 percent in his fifth year.

Eligible BBWAA members can vote for up to 10 candidates each year. Some years that space gets crowded more quickly than in others. And when there is some space on the ballot, voters tend to take a longer look at each player.

In Pedroia, there are plenty of items of interest that could grab the attention of voters in the coming years, including this gem from noted baseball enthusiast Jayson Stark of the Athletic:

Pedroia and Johnny Bench are the only two players in history to win Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, as many as four Gold Gloves and at least two World Series titles.

It is no coincidence that Pedroia was a cornerstone of World Series title teams in 2007 and ¡¯13. Not only did the self-proclaimed ¡°Laser Show¡± play hard and excel in all facets of the game, but he played hurt. In ¡¯07, his rookie year, Pedroia played the final two months of the regular season and the playoffs with a broken hamate bone in his left hand.

Six years later, Pedroia dove head-first into first base on Opening Day at Yankee Stadium and suffered a torn UCL in his left thumb. He refused to come out of the lineup. In fact, he played 160 games that year and led the American League with 724 plate appearances and belted 193 hits.

Pedroia played through everything until the one injury -- a severely-damaged left knee -- that finally defeated him.

After having a routine surgery on that knee following the ¡¯16 season, Pedroia was good to go. But that all changed on the fateful night of April 21, 2017, when Baltimore¡¯s Manny Machado spiked Pedroia¡¯s left knee breaking up a double play.

Pedroia would never be the same. He was robbed of the rest of his career, playing a total of nine games after 2017, and announcing his retirement on Feb. 1, 2021, after multiple surgeries didn¡¯t repair his issues.

Pedroia was a two-way star as Boston¡¯s starting second baseman for 11 seasons (2007-17).

Had Pedroia been able to stay on the field for those final four seasons he was still under contract for -- 2018 through ¡¯21 -- his Hall of Fame candidacy likely would have been a no brainer.

Now his case will require deep examination. If recent precedent is any indication, Pedroia, at the very least, still has a chance to punch his ticket to Cooperstown.

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