Fernando Tatis Jr. is looking as good as ever. For the first time since his 42-homer, 25-steal season in 2021, the Padres right fielder is playing like the superstar we saw when he took the Majors by storm in his early 20s.
After missing all of 2022 due to an 80-game PED suspension and wrist surgery, Tatis returned the following season but looked more like a great player than the full-blown superstar he was from 2023-24 (.796 OPS and 7.3 WAR, per FanGraphs, in 243 games).
This year, though, Tatis is hitting .333/.406/.624 with eight home runs, seven stolen bases and 1.7 fWAR, which ranks in the top five among all Major Leaguers. His dominant start to the season is a key reason why the Padres sit at 17-8 heading into Friday's series opener against the Rays, and look like they will contend again in a highly competitive NL West.
Here¡¯s a look at the crucial changes that have sparked Tatis¡¯ big season at age 26.
The following numbers are through Wednesday¡¯s games.
Improved selectivity
Remember when Ronald Acu?a Jr. more than halved his strikeout rate in his 2023 NL MVP season? Tatis is essentially following in his footsteps.
Tatis in 2024 vs. 2025
K%: 21.9% vs. 15.1%
BB%: 7.3% vs. 11.3%
Whiff rate: 28.1% vs. 26.4%
Chase rate: 28.2% vs. 27.2%
Swing rate: 51.3% vs. 49.9%
Tatis¡¯ success against hittable pitches isn¡¯t simply a matter of him swinging more often -- his overall swing decisions have massively improved.
¡°I¡¯m just more mature at the plate. I¡¯ve been able to just combine my ability to drive the ball with now swinging at the right pitches, taking when they¡¯re not giving me anything,¡± Tatis told MLB.com Padres beat reporter AJ Cassavell. ¡°I decided to grow in that area. Like I said, these are small steps. There are still five months of baseball to be played.¡±
Whereas Tatis has never ranked better than the 49th percentile in terms of lowest strikeout rate, he¡¯s currently in the 82nd percentile. His whiff rate improvement isn¡¯t quite as drastic (40th percentile, after ranking in the 20th and 30th the past two seasons). Still, moving toward league average in that regard means Tatis has had more opportunities to do damage.
¡°He¡¯s showing a lot of plate discipline. That is pretty scary,¡± Padres manager Mike Shildt said. ¡°He¡¯s getting his pitches. He¡¯s using the whole field, not doing too much. He¡¯s taking his walks. If Fernando Tatis takes his walks and manages the strike zone like he¡¯s doing now, you¡¯re going to continue to see what you¡¯re seeing now -- and that¡¯s elite offensive capability.¡±
When you hit the ball as hard and as consistently as Tatis does, dropping your strikeout rate this much is a massive deal. We saw that with Acu?a in 2023, when the Braves star struck out only 11.4 percent of the time and proceeded to post career-best numbers across the board.
Pitchers beware: Proceed with caution in the zone
That selectivity and improved discipline have helped Tatis do major damage against pitches in the heart of the zone -- essentially pitches that are clear strikes.
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): +15
2-T. Aaron Judge (NYY): +8
2-T. Corbin Carroll (AZ): +8
4. Sean Murphy (ATL): +7
5-T. Kerry Carpenter (DET): +6
5-T. Ben Rice (NYY) +6
5-T. Jorge Polanco (SEA): +6
In 39 plate appearances ending with pitches in the heart of the zone, Tatis is running an outrageous 1.604 OPS and has hit all but one of his eight home runs on said pitches. Tatis is far and away the best hitter against the most hittable pitches this season.
Tatis¡¯ ranks against heart pitches (min. 20 PA)
Tatis has been more opportunistic on these hittable pitches, putting them in play on 54.5 percent of his swings, compared with 42.3 percent before this season. And with his natural skills, the results are following suit.
Stealing bases at will
This puts opposing pitchers in a conundrum. Tatis is demolishing anything that touches the heart of the zone, yet he¡¯s laying off pitchers¡¯ pitches better than ever. If you walk him, you run the risk of Tatis swiping bags and creating chaos on the bases for a strong Padres lineup.
Tatis is already at seven stolen bases this season, tied for eighth in the Majors. After stealing a career-high 29 bags in 2023, Tatis swiped just 11 bases last year and saw his sprint speed drop to the 77th percentile, in part due to the right femoral stress fracture that caused him to miss two months.
"I mean, last year, I was standing on one leg," Tatis told Cassavell. "You can really see how healthy I'm at right now. ... I'm really happy. It's a huge part of my game, one of my favorite parts of the game. I really missed it."
Fully healthy again, Tatis has seen that sprint speed jump to 28.8 feet per second (92nd percentile), putting him in line with where he was before the injury. Tatis has also been on base so frequently -- his .406 OBP would easily be a season high and is well above his .354 career mark -- giving him ample opportunities to run.
Having played in all but one game -- he dealt with shoulder discomfort earlier this month -- Tatis is on a 155-game pace to swipe 45 bases and slug 52 home runs. Here again is the comparison to Acu?a and, to an even more recent example, Shohei Ohtani -- who created the 50-50 club last season with 54 homers and 59 steals.
Like Acu?a and Ohtani, Tatis has been doing this damage as a full-time leadoff hitter.
"I like it," Tatis told Cassavell about batting leadoff. "I feel like I can start the game with an infield hit or a home run. [If I] hit a bloop, I can steal a bag. I'm just creating a situation out of the gate.
We haven't even mentioned Tatis' defense, which, like his baserunning, seems to be bouncing back as his health has improved. Tatis was the NL¡¯s Platinum Glove Award winner in 2023, his first season as a full-time right fielder after moving out from shortstop. His Outs Above Average at that position fell from plus-11 in 2023 to minus-2 in ¡¯24, but Tatis is already at plus-3 OAA this season, which leads all right fielders in the early going.
Of course, we¡¯re talking about only 24 games that Tatis has played before the calendar has even flipped to May. His injuries and off-the-field issues have limited him to just two seasons (2021 and ¡¯23) of 130 or more games played.
But it¡¯s easy to forget that Tatis is just 26 years old and has already played at a similar superstar level in the past. It¡¯s not that hard to dream on Tatis putting together one of those Acu?a 2023 or Ohtani 2024 seasons and helping lead the Padres to the playoffs for a second straight season.