The news Blue Jays fans had been desperately waiting for -- news that, in their darkest moments, they feared would never come -- at last broke late Sunday night, into early Monday morning: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will remain north of the border. After months of frustration on both sides, the Blue Jays have agreed to a 14-year, $500 million deal with Guerrero, ensuring that he will be spending most (the rest?) of his career with Toronto.
It's a mammoth deal with wide-ranging ramifications, for both the Blue Jays and the rest of baseball. Here are five instant takeaways from what's arguably be the biggest news of the young season so far.
1. There will be no rebuild in Toronto
The Blue Jays, right before the pandemic, seemed built for sustained success for a good decade to come. They had tons of young talent, starting with Guerrero and Bo Bichette, both of whom reached the Majors (and tasted immediate success) in 2019. They had money to spend. They had a fanbase as devoted and as vast as just about any in baseball. And then ¡ well, it didn¡¯t go sideways on them exactly, but it didn¡¯t quite pan out as they might have been expecting.
Because of Covid, the Blue Jays didn¡¯t play a single game at Rogers Centre from the start of the shortened 2020 season until late July 2021, instead spending their ¡°home¡± games at their Triple-A stadium in Buffalo and their Spring Training facility in Florida. They kept losing postseason series. (They still haven¡¯t won a playoff game since 2016.) Vlad Jr. had a breakout, near-MVP season in 2021 and then took a couple of minor steps backward, making it difficult to figure out exact terms on an extension. It began to look like the team¡¯s youth movement wasn¡¯t going to pan out, to the point that both Guerrero and Bichette were rumored to be on the trade market last July. Were the Blue Jays going to wave goodbye to both without ever winning a playoff game? Was another rebuild coming?
With this extension, Blue Jays fans don¡¯t have to worry about this anymore. As long as Vlad Jr. is on this team -- which is to say, the next 14 years -- the Blue Jays have every incentive to be as competitive as possible. This franchise was facing down some dark years, and difficult questions, had Vlad Jr. left. It¡¯s a different story now.
2. Vlad Jr.: Best Blue Jay of all time?
By Baseball-Reference¡¯s version of WAR, Vlad Jr., at the age of 26, is already the 16th-best Blue Jay ever, at 21.6. He should be in the top 10 by the end of this season, passing Roberto Alomar, Devon White, John Olerud, Edwin Encarnacion, Jim Clancy and Lloyd Moseby, if you want to name some old Jays. And, of course, he¡¯ll have 14 seasons after this one to keep pushing his way toward Dave Stieb (56.8) at the top.
A number of Hall of Famers have worn a Blue Jays uniform over the years, including two players ahead of Guerrero on that WAR leaderboard: Alomar and Roy Halladay. But Alomar is the only player who actually went into the Hall as a Blue Jay, and even he spent only five seasons in Toronto. The point is, this franchise has never had a signature Hall of Famer, a guy who has been with them his whole career and made it to Cooperstown solely based on his tenure with the Jays. With this extension, Guerrero could one day be the player to do it.
3. No, the Dodgers don¡¯t just get everyone
Recent offseasons, especially this past one, have led to a sense among some that the Dodgers were just picking and choosing from the cupboard, able to bring in every player they want. But Vlad Jr.¡¯s contract -- given by a team that is not usually one of the top spenders in free agency -- is just the latest example of a superstar who not only remains out of the Dodgers¡¯ reach, but never makes it to the open market at all.
Many current stars are in fact tied to their current teams, the teams they came up with, for the next decade. Pending option decisions, Ronald Acu?a Jr. can be under contract with the Braves through 2028, Corbin Carroll with the D-backs through 2031, Julio Rodr¨ªguez with the Mariners through 2034 and Bobby Witt Jr. with the Royals through 2037. And now Vlad Jr. will be tied to the Blue Jays through 2039.
We didn¡¯t necessarily need further proof that the Dodgers (or the Mets) don¡¯t just get everyone they want, all the time, forever. But Guerrero gives us some more anyway.
4. The Yankees still need a long-term first baseman
Lurking over all the questions about Guerrero potentially leaving Toronto was the ghastly possibility, for Blue Jays fans at least, that he could sign with the Yankees during the upcoming offseason. It made a ton of sense for the Yankees, who weren¡¯t able to retain Juan Soto and thus need another star to serve as a running mate for Aaron Judge. Helpfully, the Yanks have a clear opening at first base, having just signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year deal as a stopgap solution.
Guerrero, who for years had said he wouldn¡¯t want to play for the Yankees, even backed off a little bit last year, cracking the door open to the possibility. But now that door is slammed shut. So who becomes the next running mate for Judge now? Who is worth the Yankees spending all that money on, if it¡¯s not Vlad Jr.?
5. Kyle Tucker should be happy
Well, here¡¯s a guy the Yankees might look toward, though it might require some rejiggering in their outfield. (Hey, how about Judge at first base someday?) Whether the Yankees go hard after him or not, it¡¯s clear that Tucker, who will be the obvious top free agent this offseason, is looking at a big windfall, in the wake of the deals for both Soto (15 years, $765 million) and Guerrero.
The Guerrero deal in particular is a potential benchmark for Tucker, who is two years older but plays a more important defensive position and offers quite a bit more value as a defender and baserunner. With Guerrero now off the board, this is a big opportunity for Tucker -- who is off to a huge start with the Cubs, by the way -- to become the primary target for star-hungry teams this coming winter.