When evaluating the strength of an MLB division, there are multiple routes you can take. You can, for example, simply count the number of playoff teams. Or, perhaps, you compare it to the other five divisions to see how it stacks up by total wins or combined OPS.
But what about when every team in a division can realistically win more games than they lose? It doesn't necessarily mean every team is great, but it's certainly impressive in its own way, perhaps even strong -- especially considering the rarity with which it has occurred.
Only twice in the Divisional Era (since 1969) has a single division had no losing teams, and it's been 20 years since it last happened. But there's a chance this exclusive club could grow in 2025, with one division holding the potential to create a club of its own.
But how realistic is this? Here's a ranking of which divisions are most likely to see every team finish at .500 or better this season.
All projections and stats are through Friday's games.
1. AL East
After nearly four weeks of play, the projections at FanGraphs and the PECOTA model at Baseball Prospectus show that each AL East team could finish at least within shouting distance of a winning record. In fact, the lowest win total of the bunch is the 80 wins that FanGraphs projects for the Orioles and Rays. PECOTA simulations, meanwhile, put the lowest total at the 81 wins seen for the Red Sox.
Yet, the models also disagree, depending on the team. For example, FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to finish with 85 wins, while PECOTA puts the Orioles at 84.
Though the Orioles and Rays have been sluggish so far and the Red Sox have been inconsistent, given the amount of season left, the variances of the models, and preseason expectations, it's reasonable to believe that the AL East has a decent chance to make history in 2025, either with no losing teams or with all winning teams.
The latter outcome would establish a new club. Should the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all finish with winning records, it would mark the first time that each team in a division has finished above .500.
2. AL West
This would be something nobody saw coming before the season. While the Rangers, Astros and Mariners all had cases for being in the playoff hunt, the Angels and A's did not. Yet, nearly a month into the season, the Angels have played like contenders and have proven to be an exciting team, while the A's are holding their own and keeping pace with the rest of the division.
Though PECOTA simulations indicate any hope of an all-.500 AL West is silly, the projections at FanGraphs give it more of a fighting chance. Those show the A's and Angels finishing with 78 wins and 76 wins, respectively, which obviously wouldn't get it done but does conjure mental "So you're telling me there's a chance" memes.
Not that it means anything, but the AL West (albeit a very different version) is one of the only two divisions in history to feature all non-losing teams. But doing it again in 2025 would offer a nice bit of symmetry.
3. NL East
Going into the season, this was expected to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball. The Braves, Mets and Phillies were all expected to blitz through the rest of the league and likely make up half the postseason spots in the NL.
While the Mets and Phillies have had strong starts, the Braves have flopped (mostly thanks to starting 0-7). Meanwhile, the Marlins and Nationals have played the competition tougher than most expected.
As with the AL West, the projections and simulations don't see anything other than losing records for Miami and Washington by the end of the year. In fact, both FanGraphs and PECOTA see the Marlins and Nats each losing 91 or more games. But baseball is weird, so you never know. But we also kinda do.
4. NL Central
This division wasn't expected to be especially competitive, with only the Brewers and Cubs projected to challenge for a winning record. But so far, it's been a tighter-than-expected race, as the Reds and Cardinals have hovered around .500 too.
But even if the Cubs and Brewers have good years -- and the Reds and Cardinals outplay expectations -- the Pirates represent the biggest stumbling block to a .500 or better division. As things stand now, Pittsburgh is projected to be slightly worse than the Reds and Cardinals, with all three teams expected to ultimately flirt with 85-plus losses.
The Pirates haven't finished at .500 or better since 2018 and have lost at least 86 games in every full season since 2019. This season, they rank last in the NL in average and OPS, are tied for the most offensive strikeouts, and are middle-of-the-pack in team ERA. So, this one's a long shot.
5. AL Central
The AL Central has four teams that are expected to make a serious run at 80 or more wins, with projections and models eyeing the Tigers and Twins as the division's top two contenders, with the Guardians and Royals close behind.
But then you have the White Sox. Though not expected to be as bad as their record-setting 41-121 mark last season, they're definitely not expected to contend for anything. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA see a third straight season of more than 100 losses for the South Siders, who will almost certainly finish a very distant fifth in the division -- making an all-.500 or better AL Central a near impossibility.
6. NL West
This is a division that has proven to be pretty strong in the early going, with four of the five teams posting double-digit wins before any other division even had three teams in double digits.
The Dodgers, expected before the season to run away with everything, have gotten tough competition from the Padres and Giants, both of whom have exceeded expectations so far. But as with the AL Central, there is a major obstacle to everyone finishing at .500 or better: the Rockies.
Projections and models agree that the team will finish with more than 100 losses, with PECOTA models going as high as 112. And there's no indication so far that an unforeseen turnaround is likely, with the team having scored the fewest runs in the bigs while allowing the most.
MLB divisions with no losing teams (since 1969)
2005 NL East
Braves: 90-72
Phillies: 88-74
Marlins: 83-79
Mets: 83-79
Nationals: 81-81
What to know: The Braves' division title was the last in their run of 14 straight that began in 1991. But there were other noteworthy things to emerge in the divisional race. Each team in the division had at least one player who received an MVP vote, and each had at least one player who led the league in a major statistical category. The five teams also featured a combined seven future Hall of Famers, plus Miguel Cabrera, Andruw Jones and Chase Utley, who could all be inducted within a few years.
Highlights: Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard hit 22 homers and had a 133 OPS+ on his way to being named NL Rookie of the Year. Jones hit an MLB-leading 51 homers and finished second in MVP voting behind Albert Pujols. Mets shortstop Jos¨¦ Reyes led MLB with 17 triples and led the NL with 60 stolen bases. Marlins lefty Dontrelle Willis earned an MLB-best 22 wins and also led all starters with five shutouts, while Nationals closer Chad Cordero led MLB with 47 saves.
1991 AL West
Twins: 95-67
White Sox: 87-75
Rangers: 85-77
A's: 84-78
Mariners: 83-79
Royals: 82-80
Angels: 81-81
What to know: The 1991 Twins hit an MLB-best .280 as a team and had an OPS of .764, just one point off the MLB lead (Rangers). They then rode that to a World Series championship. The division featured 19 All-Stars, 14 players who received MVP votes (including five from the Twins) and 16 future Hall of Famers. The collective OPS of the division was .728, the best in baseball. The strength of the AL West in '91 is especially impressive because it had seven teams in those days.
Highlights: Twins righty Scott Erickson tied for the MLB lead with 20 wins and finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, one of three Minnesota starters (Jack Morris, Kevin Tapani) to finish in the Top 10. Minnesota second baseman Chuck Knoblauch hit .281 on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year Award. The Rangers' Julio Franco hit .341 to win the AL batting crown, while hurler Nolan Ryan's 10.56 K/9 ratio was tops in baseball. A's slugger Jose Canseco tied for the MLB lead with 44 homers, while Royals outfielder Danny Tartabull's .593 slugging percentage was the best in MLB. Meanwhile, White Sox first baseman Frank Thomas led all players with 138 walks, which helped power an MLB-leading .453 on-base percentage and 1.006 OPS. Angels closer Bryan Harvey led the AL with 46 saves.