It¡¯s very much that time of year again, which is to say that it¡¯s time to prepare ourselves for the 2025 baseball season the same way we¡¯ve done it for the last few years ¨C by breaking down the 30 teams into a handful of nebulously defined tiers. The Tiers of Baseball, we¡¯ll call it. That has a nice ring to it.
These are roughly ordered from good to poor, though not exactly; it¡¯s not simply a ranking of projected odds or win totals. It¡¯s about ranking similar teams together, which means that there¡¯s a vibes-based component, too. We don¡¯t, for example, think that St. Louis will be one of the five weakest teams this year, but you¡¯ll see why they¡¯re positioned where they are when you get there.
Of course, we¡¯re not naive, either. There¡¯s only one team in the top tier this year. Love them or hate them, you know who it has to be.
Tier 1: The big cheese
Is there a tier higher than Tier 1?
- Dodgers
Well, obviously. The Dodgers won the World Series last year, and then had an incredible offseason of talent acquisition: Roki Sasaki and Blake Snell, primarily, but also Tanner Scott, Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez, Kirby Yates, Michael Conforto, and Hyeseong Kim as well. To some extent, they have ascended beyond the mortal concerns of things like, ¡°Do we need a third lefty out of the bullpen?¡± and moved onto, for lack of a better term, total global domination. If a Bond villain had a baseball team, it would probably look like this one.
That said: While we¡¯re leaning into the jokes here, the narrative of the Dodgers having already purchased a championship is more than a little overblown. Remember that they just posted their lowest winning percentage since 2016; remember that it was the Mets who had the highest payroll the last three seasons, not the Dodgers; remember that the Padres came within a game of bouncing them in the NLDS last fall. FanGraphs gives them 23% odds to win the ring, which is both wildly high and still means ending in failure three-quarters of the time. The Dodgers have the best roster, by kind of a lot. The games, though, still need to be played.
Tier 2: World Series or bust
The only goal is winning it all.
- Braves
- Mets
- Orioles
- Phillies
- Yankees
For each of these teams, making the playoffs is merely the ground floor. Their sights are set much higher.
Yes, that does include three different NL East teams in the Braves, Mets and Phillies, even though the Braves and Phillies each have recent division titles and World Series trips, while the Mets do not. It¡¯s fair to wonder if New York¡¯s early pitching injuries might set them back. It¡¯s also fair to point out that the Mets made it further last year than either competitor ¨C and that the Mets now employ Juan Soto, meaning everyone else does not. They¡¯re projected to have the third-most position player value in baseball in 2025.
Of course, the Braves and Phillies are second and tied for fourth, respectively, in regular-season wins the last two seasons. Atlanta gets Spencer Strider and Ronald Acu?a Jr. back this year ¨C and Strider looked absolutely fantastic in his return to the mound Monday ¨C while Philadelphia traded for Jes¨²s Luzardo (good) while leaving plenty of questions in their outfield (bad). Both teams feature much of the same cores that have made them outstanding in recent years.
It¡¯s even harder in the AL East, because that division goes five deep, as compared to the three serious contenders in the NL East. But while the other clubs may be satisfied with a visit to October, that¡¯s not good enough for the Orioles and Yankees, who have represented each of the last three division title winners, and who are each dealing with a lot of questions this winter. For Baltimore, that offensive core of young talent remains ¨C it could even easily improve, if Jackson Holliday makes an impact and Samuel Basallo debuts ¨C yet a rotation that lost Corbin Burnes had several questions even before Grayson Rodriguez¡¯s latest injury. It¡¯s hardly now-or-never for the Adley Rutschman-led O¡¯s, but it¡¯s also not ¡°plan for the future¡± any longer, either.
The Yankees are here because they¡¯re the Yankees ¨C the ring is always the only goal no matter what ¨C and, to be fair, they¡¯re still the defending American League champions until someone else takes it. But while there¡¯s a lot to like about their pitching adds, there¡¯s no replacing Soto, and it¡¯s hard to argue that any club has had a worse spring, with Gerrit Cole out for the year, Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton each out for months, and Clarke Schmidt now dealing with shoulder soreness. The expectations won¡¯t change, internally, yet a post-Soto lineup looked thin even before all the pitching issues, and this roster looks more vulnerable than it has in a long time.
Tier 3: Better than you might think they¡¯ll be
Four non-playoff teams from 2024 that might be a little underrated.
- Cubs
- D-backs
- Rangers
- Red Sox
None of these teams made the playoffs last year. We¡¯d be stunned if at least one ¨C if not several ¨C didn¡¯t get there this year.
May as well take the D-backs and Rangers together, because their stories are somewhat similar, in terms of ¡°most everything went right in 2023, when they faced off in the World Series, and then not as many things went right in 2024, even though the fundamental talent didn¡¯t change much.¡± Some of the faces have; Arizona no longer has Christian Walker, but it does have Corbin Burnes; Texas has Jacob deGrom healthy, a nice change; Joc Pederson actually went from Arizona to Texas. Everyone expects the Texas offense to be better, but Rangers pitching is already taking all sorts of injury hits this spring.
The Cubs and Red Sox belong together, too. After a run of success that ended with rings last decade, both clubs have been stuck in neutral for years. Maybe that didn¡¯t fully change this winter, but adding Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly, Justin Turner, Alex Bregman, Walker Buehler, and Garrett Crochet between these teams certainly isn¡¯t nothing. (To say nothing of Boston's incredibly exciting Big Three prospects.) The NL Central is always wide open, of course, creating an opportunity for the Cubs -- and given the issues in Baltimore and New York, Boston is a trendy AL East pick right now.
Tier 4: There¡¯s still a pretty healthy middle class here
A grouping of good-not-great teams that should all be strong contenders.
- Giants
- Mariners
- Padres
- Rays
- Reds
- Royals
- Tigers
- Twins
The size of this group speaks to just how competitive the 2025 season looks to be. Per FanGraphs, there are 20 teams with playoff odds between 20% and 80%; as we wrote recently, even with the Dodgers, this season is projected to have the tightest divisional races of the last decade. It¡¯s going to be an extremely competitive and interesting year.
Quick hits, then: The Royals, Tigers and Twins share the AL Central, but while Kansas City and Detroit took monumental steps forward last year, Minnesota¡¯s fourth-place finish was a disappointment. Then again, all three teams finished within four wins of one another ¨C well within the margin of error for ¡°fluky luck or weird injuries,¡± and they¡¯re all projected to be, well, about the same as one another in 2025.
Put the Mariners and Rays together, given their .500-ish rosters feature excellent pitching without quite enough offense. (And, to our eternal confusion, similar color schemes.) We¡¯ll go a step further, because they each have a ballpark that will be a Main Character, though for very different reasons. As we wrote about in January, Seattle¡¯s T-Mobile Park is something like an all-time offense suppressor, while the Rays, unable to return to Tropicana Field after hurricane damage, will use George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa as their home base.
The Giants and Padres share a state, a division, high rankings on ¡°best ballparks¡± surveys, and also an annual problem, which is: ¡°Will anyone ever take down the Dodgers?¡± The Padres did win 13 more games than the Giants did last year, though projections don¡¯t worry about that so much as they do who is on the roster now. Both teams are positioned to be ¡°similarly competitive,¡± though we¡¯d give the Padres a mild edge. This year, the D-backs are positioned ahead of them as well, adding to the difficulty.
Finally, we know everyone wants the Reds to have a massive burst to the playoffs after hiring Terry Francona, and we¡¯d like to see that, too. But for as great as his career has been, we also can¡¯t look past the Guardians and Brewers losing managers with elite reputations (Francona included!) after 2023 and then humming along just fine. If Cincinnati makes a run, it¡¯ll be more about whether everyone else supports Elly De La Cruz better than they did in 2024.
Tier 5: Time comes for us all
Two teams staring directly at the end of an era -- maybe.
- Astros
- Blue Jays
Very different eras, obviously; the Astros have won seven straight full-season division titles, while the Blue Jays haven¡¯t won a playoff game since 2016. Still, there are some similarities here.
The Astros should still be good, and competitive, and might even win the AL West for an eighth time in a row. But they also just posted their lowest full-season winning percentage since 2016, and now Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly and Justin Verlander (again) play on different teams. Also, Jose Altuve is an outfielder now? Any team with Yordan Alvarez will be dangerous; we also loved the Christian Walker signing. But this might be impending free agent Framber Valdez¡¯s last year in town, too. Eventually, the days become shorter for us all -- even for one of the best teams of the 21st century.
In Toronto, the Blue Jays haven¡¯t had that level of success. What they do have, similar to Houston, is the potential end of a core staring them right in the face. It matters what they do on the field this year, of course; it may matter more what they do with impending free agents Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. With Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer also free agents after the year, and George Springer and Kevin Gausman the year after that, this group is going to look very, very different, very, very soon.
Tier 6: Eventually, we¡¯ll stop underrating them
But this isn¡¯t the year, and they¡¯ll make us look foolish for it once again.
- Brewers
- Guardians
Every single year, we focus on what these two don¡¯t have, then watch them outperform all expectations. We¡¯re all but certain one of them will do it again. But which?
If we had to pick one, we¡¯d probably say the Brewers, because they not only won 93 games last year, but introduced baseball¡¯s next megastar in Jackson Chourio, who put up a .914 OPS in the second half as a 20-year-old. One of these years, they won't be able to compensate for losing some key pieces -- this time around it's Willy Adames and Devin Williams -- but also, they haven¡¯t had a full-season losing record since 2016.
Maybe the Guardians do the same. What¡¯s different here? The yearly issues with the offense remain ¨C they haven¡¯t had a 20-homer outfielder since 2014, and the second-half lineup outscored only four non-contenders ¨C but the rotation is no longer a strength, meaning much of their success was due to one of the most dominant bullpens, well, ever. No one thinks Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and friends will stop being good, of course. It¡¯s just really, really hard to rely on that kind of relief performance to stick year to year. It almost never does.
Tier 7: There¡¯s interesting baseball to be had here
Probably not deep enough for a real run, yet with some fascinating top-end stars.
- Athletics
- Nationals
- Pirates
Are any of these three teams terribly likely to make the playoffs? Well, no, probably not, but remember that just a year ago we¡¯d have said the same thing about the Royals and Tigers. Actually: We did. We did say that. But we also noted how much more interesting they¡¯d be than in past years, too. Sometimes, ¡°more interesting¡± and ¡°more competitive¡± really do mean the same thing.
It might for the Athletics, too, because even though they lost 93 games last year, they also played .500 ball in the second half while posting a similar ERA to the Dodgers and Orioles. Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler form an exciting one-two punch in the middle of the lineup. With imports Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs joining the reliable J.P. Sears, breakout candidate Osvaldo Bido, and relief ace Mason Miller, they suddenly have the makings of a decent pitching staff. As will be a recurring theme here, depth will be an issue. But when Mark Kotsay says there¡¯s a ¡°higher level of expectation,¡± you get why.
The Nationals expect to play young outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood full-time this year, and that is supremely exciting news for fans of a franchise that has lost more games than any other team since winning the 2019 World Series. If and when this club gets back to the playoffs, it¡¯s likely because those two helped mash their way there. The question is who else is there to support them, particularly on the mound, because while MacKenzie Gore always seems like a breakout just about to happen, the 2025 Nats are projected to have the fourth-weakest pitching in the game.
As for the Pirates? They might already have the best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes. That would be reason enough to watch, except they also have Jared Jones, might promote top pitching prospect Bubba Chandler this year, and are trying Oneil Cruz in center field. If we were ranking the 30 teams by ¡°most exciting names on each roster,¡± they¡¯d do well. Unfortunately, the offense was a weakness last year, and not nearly enough has been done since to support Skenes and his pitching pals.
Tier 8: What's the direction here?
Highly likely to play 162 games this year.
- Angels
- Cardinals
The Angels still have Mike Trout ¨C that¡¯s right fielder Mike Trout, finally ¨C and they¡¯re saying all the right things about competing, particularly after striking early in free agency to land Opening Day starter Yusei Kikuchi and several other veterans who should raise the quality of play. Yet they also haven¡¯t had a winning record since 2015, when Trout was 23 years old. Not much has changed, outwardly, to think that streak ends this year, nor is there a clear plan for future years.
As we said above, we don¡¯t actually think the Cardinals will be this far down, record-wise. They might even make some noise in the Wild Card race, because all the talk about doing a ¡°reset¡± never exactly happened, since Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley, Miles Mikolas and Willson Contreras are all still there. That¡¯s good news for 2025 competitiveness; it just puts everyone in something of an awkward holding pattern, trying to balance competing now with giving younger players room to learn, while knowing that this is the final year of the John Mozeliak Era before Chaim Bloom takes over as the president of baseball operations. They might be better than you think this year. That wasn¡¯t entirely the point, though.
Tier 9: Eventually, next year will be this year
Last year¡¯s three 100-loss teams still haven¡¯t quite found the way back.
- Marlins
- Rockies
- White Sox
These three teams weren't very good last year, and they won¡¯t be very good this year, either. At some point in the future, if and when things have turned around, perhaps they can look back on these dark times to see when the seeds of something better were planted.
That¡¯s what the Marlins are hoping, anyway, as Peter Bendix, still only a year-and-a-half into the job, continued to rebuild the team¡¯s baseball operations staff and systems, this after acquiring 15 players in trades leading up to last summer¡¯s Trade Deadline. A relatively anonymous 2025 lineup is going to make run-scoring extremely difficult. The healthy return of ace Sandy Alcantara should be a cause for joy every five or six days ¡ª and the return he brings if and when some contender comes sniffing around this summer could jumpstart this rebuild.
While Miami has new leadership and potentially a new direction, the Rockies, coming off the first two 100-loss seasons in team history, are a model of consistency. We mean that; it¡¯s likely that three of their top four starters this year (Kyle Freeland, Germ¨¢n M¨¢rquez, and Antonio Senzatela) were also three of their top four starters back in 2017. As usual, there are a few extremely interesting position players here ¨C Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, Nolan Jones, etc. There always seem to be, though. It¡¯s hard to see a real change until there¡¯s a real change.
The White Sox can¡¯t be as bad as last year, because they lost 121 games, and that¡¯s almost impossible to do even once, much less twice, particularly because there¡¯s evidence they were unlucky. When you lose three of your best hitters to baserunning injuries in the first two weeks of the season, that¡¯s when you¡¯ve moved officially beyond ¡°not enough talent¡± to ¡°straight-up snakebitten.¡± They were probably more like a 110-loss team that also had things go badly; on the other hand, the 2025 team won¡¯t have the services of Garrett Crochet, Michael Kopech, or Michael Soroka. There is, at least, plenty of high-level talent on the way ¨C and plenty of confidence for right now. Perhaps, even, too much.