The Phillies' stable of prospects is still topped by the same two right-handed pitchers who were there a year ago at this time, but this go-round, the optimism surrounding the dynamic duo is just a touch more cautious.
That¡¯s because top guy Andrew Painter, who looked like he was making a beeline to the big leagues at age 20 last spring, had Tommy John surgery last July and very likely won¡¯t pitch until 2025.
Now for the good news.
He¡¯ll only be 22 years old for that season and there¡¯s a pretty good track record for returning from that injury. And in the meantime, he has Mick Abel ready to pick up the slack. Abel, the Phillies' first-rounder the year before Painter, touched Triple-A in 2023 and it¡¯s clear his stuff will get big league hitters out, especially if he can iron out some command issues.
After taking the two prep pitchers with their first selection back-to-back, the Phillies stayed in the high school game for the next two years, this time targeting bats. Justin Crawford¡¯s speed and Aidan Miller¡¯s power are exciting enough tools on their own, but both have the chance to be excellent all-around players, a big reason why they¡¯re firmly in the Top 100. And keep a very close eye on Starlyn Caba. He¡¯s yet to play in the United States, but the organization¡¯s top international get in the 2023 signing period is a serious pick to click as someone who will work their way onto that Top 100 soon.
Here¡¯s a look at the Phillies' top prospects:
1. Andrew Painter, RHP (MLB No. 27)
2. Mick Abel, RHP (MLB No. 49)
3. Aidan Miller, 3B/SS (MLB No. 61)
4. Justin Crawford, OF (MLB No. 77)
5. Starlyn Caba, SS
Complete Top 30 list ?
Biggest jump/fall
Here are the players whose ranks changed the most from the 2023 preseason list to the 2024 preseason list:
Jump: Starlyn Caba, SS (2023: NR | 2024: 5)
In retrospect, Caba probably belonged on the Phillies¡¯ Top 30 right out of the chute, but it can be difficult to figure out where to place an international free agent right after they¡¯ve signed and before they¡¯ve played an inning of note. Caba hit .301 with a .423 OBP during his debut in the Dominican Summer League to serve notice that he¡¯s a prospect worth tracking.
Fall: Rickardo Perez, C (2023: 15 | 2024: NR)
Perez got $1 million to sign in 2021 and seemed like he was on an upward trajectory with a big United States debut in the Florida Complex League in '22. That progress was derailed when he was suspended early in 2023 and didn¡¯t play a professional inning, leaving his future in doubt.
Best tools
Players are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale for future tools ¨C 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. Players in parentheses have the same grade.
Hit: 55 -- Justin Crawford (Starlyn Caba, William Bergolla)
Power: 60 -- Aidan Miller
Run: 75 -- Justin Crawford
Arm: 60 -- Bryan Rincon (Aidan Miller, Eduardo Tait, Raylin Heredia)
Defense: 65 -- Starlyn Caba
Fastball: 70 -- Andrew Painter (Alex McFarlane, George Klassen)
Curveball: 55 -- Mick Abel (George Klassen)
Slider: 65 -- Orion Kerkering
Changeup: 55 -- Andrew Painter
Control: 65 -- Andrew Painter
How they were built
Draft: 17 | International: 10 | Trade: 2 | Free agent: 1
Breakdown by ETA
2024: 6 | 2025: 6 | 2026: 8 | 2027: 7 | 2028: 2 | 2029: 1
Breakdown by position
C: 3 | 2B: 2 | 3B: 1 | SS: 4 | OF: 10 | LHP: 1 | RHP: 9