At around this time last year, MLB.com looked at each team¡¯s top projected player for 2024, in terms of WAR, and based on the Steamer projections available at FanGraphs.

Projections, of course, are not an exact science. And they can¡¯t possibly account for all of the twists and turns that take place over 162 games. So even though they provide a useful data point, it¡¯s no surprise that while some turned out to be right on the money, others didn¡¯t quite pan out.

Team¡¯s projected WAR leader finished ¡­

• 1st on the team: 8
• 2nd on the team: 7
• 3rd-5th on the team: 7
• 6th-10th on the team: 4
• Lower than 10th on the team: 4

Before we begin to turn our full attention toward the 2025 season, it¡¯s worth taking a closer look back at these projections. Let¡¯s evaluate the results for each team, going in rough order of how accurate they turned out to be. (All references to WAR below are from FanGraphs.)

1. Royals: SS Bobby Witt Jr. (4.8 projected WAR)
Leader: Witt (10.4)

How¡¯s this for a year? 1) Double your projected WAR and break a Hall of Famer's single-season franchise record in the process. 2) Lead your team to a 30-win improvement, snapping an eight-season playoff drought. 3) Finish as the AL MVP runner-up, as well as a Gold Glover and Silver Slugger. 4) Get married.

2. Tigers: LHP Tarik Skubal (4.0 projected WAR)
Leader: Skubal (5.9)

While Skubal had not previously reached 150 innings or 3.5 WAR in a season, his spectacular showing in 15 starts after returning from the IL in 2023 clearly set the stage for a star turn in ¡®24. But even the most optimistic expectations for Skubal¡¯s breakout season probably didn¡¯t have him as an AL pitching Triple Crown winner and unanimous Cy Young selection.

3. Mets: SS Francisco Lindor (4.3 projected WAR)
Leader: Lindor (7.8)

Like his fellow shortstop and MVP Award runner-up in Kansas City, Lindor enjoyed a 2024 that was as good as could be expected. He equaled his previous career high in WAR, set back in 2018 for Cleveland. Even better, he did so while cementing his status in Queens by leading the Mets on a surprise playoff run that included an epic go-ahead grand slam in the NLDS clincher.

4. Guardians: 3B Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez (5.2 projected WAR)
Leader: Ram¨ªrez (6.5)

Ram¨ªrez just keeps churning out great seasons for Cleveland clubs that frequently overperform. Both happened again in 2024. J-Ram cleared the 6-WAR mark for the third time in four years and fifth time overall, while the Guardians made the playoffs for the sixth time during his tenure.

5. Brewers: C William Contreras (4.4 projected WAR)
Leader: Contreras (5.4)

Thanks to his contributions on both sides of the ball, Contreras was tied with the Mariners¡¯ Cal Raleigh for the Major League WAR lead among catchers, essentially matching his production from his breakout turn in 2023. The Brewers nabbing Contreras as part of a three-team deal with the A¡¯s and Braves two offseasons ago continues to look like it¡¯ll go down as an all-time heist.

6. Phillies: RHP Zack Wheeler (4.7 projected WAR)
Leader: Wheeler (5.4)

On a team filled with stars, Wheeler has been the best, and steadiest, performer. He leads all Major League pitchers in WAR since joining the Phillies in 2020 (24.7), as well as going back to 2018 (33.5), his first full season after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery with the Mets.

7. Astros: DH/LF Yordan Alvarez (5.7 projected WAR)
Leader: Alvarez (5.3)

Alvarez is the first player on this list who didn¡¯t quite reach his projection, but only by a negligible margin. His bat was as prolific as always, producing the fourth highest wRC+ among qualifiers (168). However, he likely would not have held on to the Astros¡¯ lead if not for Kyle Tucker (4.2 WAR in 78 games) missing roughly half the season due to injury.

8. Rangers: SS Corey Seager (5.1 projected WAR)
Leader: Seager (4.5 WAR)

Seager once again missed some time due to injury, including a hip issue that cost him the Rangers¡¯ final 24 games. Once again, he was excellent when healthy, although he didn¡¯t quite reach the same heights as in 2023.

9. Yankees: RF Juan Soto (6.7 projected WAR)
Leader: CF Aaron Judge (11.2) | Soto (8.1, 2nd)

Nobody would call Soto¡¯s season a disappointment, as he finished fourth in all of MLB in WAR -- it just so happened that his teammate, Judge, finished first. A $765 million contract from the Mets this offseason was a decent consolation prize.

10. Giants: RHP Logan Webb (4.1 projected WAR)
Leader: 3B Matt Chapman (5.5) | Webb (4.4, 2nd)

While Chapman didn¡¯t sign with the Giants until March, well after our original exercise was conducted, Webb still would have been the team¡¯s top projected player had Chapman been in the fold at the time. Webb went on to deliver another strong, 200-plus inning season at the front of the Giants¡¯ rotation, but Chapman rebounded for his best performance since 2019, one that earned him a long-term extension in San Francisco.

11. Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers (4.7 projected WAR)
Leader: CF Jarren Duran (6.7) | Devers (4.1, 2nd)

Devers¡¯ season was right in line with what he¡¯d done from 2021-23: Mash the ball like a top-25 hitter while giving back some value with shaky defense at the hot corner. His runner-up finish in Boston was mostly about Duran authoring a somewhat unexpected breakout that landed him a top-10 AL MVP finish.

12. Cubs: 2B Nico Hoerner (3.3 projected WAR)
Leader: SS Dansby Swanson (4.3) | Hoerner (3.9, 2nd)

Hoerner actually tied with left-hander Justin Steele as the Cubs¡¯ top projected player. Steele (3.0) wound up tied for fifth. That Swanson¡¯s 4.3 WAR (tied for 32nd in MLB) led the Cubs was indicative of the team¡¯s lack of high-end talent -- something it attempted to remedy this offseason by trading for Tucker.

13. D-backs: RF Corbin Carroll (4.7 projected WAR)
Leader: 2B Ketel Marte (6.3) | Carroll (4.0, 2nd)

After the All-Star break, Carroll ranked seventh in the Majors with 3.1 WAR, showing the all-around talent that made him a rookie standout in 2023. But a puzzling first-half slump kept Carroll from leading the D-backs for the second straight year, as it was the underrated Marte who wound up in the NL MVP conversation.

14. Pirates: SS Oneil Cruz (3.0 projected WAR)
Leader: RHP Paul Skenes (4.3) | Cruz (3.5, 2nd)

Cruz returned healthy after missing nearly all of 2023, but while he did top his projection, his production still didn¡¯t fully match his considerable skillset. That was thanks in part to defensive issues at shortstop that led the Pirates to move him to center field late in the season. Instead of Cruz, it was Skenes who enjoyed a jaw-dropping breakout in 2024.

15. Dodgers: IF/OF Mookie Betts (6.1 projected WAR)
Leader: DH Shohei Ohtani (9.1) | Betts (4.4, 2nd)

Ohtani ranked second in the Majors with 8.9 WAR in 2023, but earned a projection of only 4.3 WAR in 2024. Of course, that was a reflection of his temporary, injury-induced status as a full-time DH instead of a two-way player. Amazingly, Ohtani was just as valuable in that DH-only role in 2024, while Betts lost nearly two months to a fractured hand.

16. Twins: RHP Pablo L¨®pez (4.1 projected WAR)
Leader: SS Carlos Correa (4.3) | L¨®pez (3.2, 3rd)

L¨®pez had a fine season overall, but wasn¡¯t able to build on his seventh-place AL Cy Young Award finish in 2023, posting a 5.11 first-half ERA before bouncing back in the second half. Correa somehow led the Twins in WAR despite ranking just eighth on the team in plate appearances (367).

17. Mariners: CF Julio Rodr¨ªguez (3.8 projected WAR)
Leader: C Cal Raleigh (5.4) | Rodr¨ªguez (3.8, 4th)

While Raleigh has received a small fraction of Rodr¨ªguez¡¯s hype, both rank as top-20 position players over the past three seasons, and Raleigh has done that while collecting only the 80th-most plate appearances over that span. No, J-Rod didn¡¯t have the MVP-caliber season many expected in 2024. But don¡¯t overlook Raleigh, who deservedly received some down-ballot support after combining outstanding defense behind the plate with 34 homers and 100 RBIs.

18. Padres: RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (5.5 projected WAR)
Leader: CF Jackson Merrill (5.5) | Tatis (3.2, 6th)

A young, dynamic outfielder led the Padres in WAR in 2024 -- just not the one Steamer (or most humans) expected. After all, at this time a year ago, it wasn¡¯t clear Merrill would wind up as the Padres¡¯ everyday center fielder, much less post a Rookie of the Year-caliber performance that would leave him behind only Skenes in the NL voting. Tatis had a good season, but his right-field defense sunk from elite to around average in his second year at the position.

19. Cardinals: 3B Nolan Arenado (3.4 projected WAR)
Leader: RHP Sonny Gray (3.8) | Arenado (3.1, 4th)

Arenado experienced a sizeable drop-off from 2022 (7.2 WAR) to 2023 (2.7), and as expected, he bounced back slightly in 2024. That was mostly due to his renowned glove, but Arenado¡¯s bat was just slightly above league average again (102 wRC+), and his homer total fell from 26 to 16.

20. Blue Jays: RHP Kevin Gausman (4.3 projected WAR)
Leader: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.5) | Gausman (2.9, 3rd)

The good news for the 2024 Blue Jays was Guerrero¡¯s re-emergence as an elite offensive threat after a couple of frustrating seasons. The bad news was almost everything else. Gausman was hardly the team¡¯s biggest issue in a 74-win season, as he remained a durable, above-average starter. But he went from ranking third in MLB in strikeout rate in 2023 to 38th last year.

21. Nationals: SS CJ Abrams (2.9 projected WAR)
Leader: LHP MacKenzie Gore (3.2) | Abrams (1.9, 6th)

Abrams and Gore both were part of the Nationals¡¯ return in the Juan Soto trade, which is bearing fruit for Washington. Both players took at least some steps forward in 2024, with Gore making 32 solid starts in his age-25 season, and Abrams producing 20 homers and 31 steals at age 23. However, Abrams' defensive difficulties at shortstop cost him WAR-wise.

22. Rays: 1B Yandy D¨ªaz (4.4 projected WAR)
Leader: 3B Isaac Paredes (3.0) | D¨ªaz (1.9, T-4th)

The hard-hitting D¨ªaz was excellent in both 2022 and ¡®23, earning his first All-Star selection and batting title as well as a sixth-place AL MVP finish in the latter year. He couldn¡¯t keep it going this past year, however, seeing his wRC+ drop from 163 to 120. In a disappointing season for the Rays, Paredes was the team¡¯s WAR leader despite playing just 101 games before being traded to the Cubs.

23. Athletics: 2B Zack Gelof (2.4 projected WAR)
Leader: DH Brent Rooker (5.1) | Gelof (1.4, T-6th)

Gelof logged 69 games and 300 plate appearances as a rookie in 2023, enough to lead the team in WAR. Steamer saw him repeating the feat, but while Gelof still contributed with the glove and on the bases, his bat took a major step backward in his first full season. Meanwhile, Rooker finished seventh in MLB with a 164 wRC+, earning a five-year extension.

24. Orioles: C Adley Rutschman (5.8 projected WAR)
Leader: SS Gunnar Henderson (8.0) | Rutschman (2.8, T-5th)

Baltimore¡¯s two foundational stars went in opposite directions in 2024. Henderson ascended from star to superstar, finishing fifth in the Majors in WAR. Rutschman looked to be on track for another stellar year through June (.821 OPS) but then slumped badly the rest of the way (.564), leaving him far behind Henderson.

25. Angels: CF Mike Trout (4.2 projected WAR)
Leader: SS Zach Neto (3.5) | Trout (1.0, 8th)

Trout easily led the Angels in WAR in every season from 2012-19 and tied with Anthony Rendon in the pandemic-shortened 2020. But Trout hasn¡¯t done it since. From 2021-23, that was a function of both his injuries and Ohtani's ascent. In ¡®24, it was just the former, as Trout never played after April 29 due to multiple meniscus tears in his left knee.

26. Marlins: LHP Jesus Luzardo (3.3 projected WAR)
Leader: 2B Otto Lopez (2.5) | Luzardo (0.7, T-14th)

It says a lot about Miami¡¯s season that its WAR leader was Lopez, a 25-year-old rookie whom the club claimed off waivers in early April. Meanwhile, Luzardo was unable to replicate his success from a breakout year in 2023, making only 12 starts and struggling when healthy (5.00 ERA) before an offseason trade to Philadelphia.

27. White Sox: CF Luis Robert Jr. (3.5 projected WAR)
Leader: LHP Garrett Crochet (4.7) | Robert (0.5, T-9th)

Crochet was one of the few bright spots in a record-setting 121-loss White Sox season, and one of only five Chicago players to reach the 1-WAR mark. Robert was not among them. He played only seven games before a hip injury cost him two months, then never got it going after that, finishing with a .657 OPS.

28. Braves: RF Ronald Acu?a Jr. (7.4 projected WAR)
Leader: LHP Chris Sale (6.4) | Acu?a (1.0, 17th)

After a 2023 season in which everything came together in brilliant fashion for Acu?a, 2024 was the opposite. The 2023 NL MVP started off cold, then sustained a season-ending knee injury after only 49 games. Meanwhile, Sale shook off years of injury issues to nab his long-awaited first Cy Young Award at age 35.

29. Rockies: LF Nolan Jones (2.0 projected WAR)
Leaders: SS Ezequiel Tovar & CF Brenton Doyle (3.7) | Jones (-0.8, T-49th)

Jones was one of the most pleasant surprises of 2023, showing a tantalizing all-around skillset that produced a 20-20 season with a .931 OPS in his first real shot at the big leagues. Given that performance, Steamer¡¯s 2024 projection was pretty conservative, but Jones fell well below even that bar, due in large part to a low back strain that led to two lengthy IL stints.

30. Reds: 2B Matt McLain (3.3 projected WAR)
Leader: SS Elly De La Cruz (6.4) | McLain (DNP)

The Reds hoped McLain and De La Cruz would form one of the best middle-infield combos in baseball in 2024. Instead, McLain sustained what turned out to be a season-ending left shoulder injury during a Spring Training workout in March. De La Cruz certainly held up his end of the bargain, though.