Expert weighs in on Hunter's Hall of Fame case
This story was excerpted from Matthew Leach's Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
As I write this, it¡¯s one week until the results of the 2025 writers¡¯ ballot for the Hall of Fame are announced. And while no Twins are likely to be inducted this year, Torii Hunter appears on the ballot for the fifth time.
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I spoke with Hall of Fame expert Jay Jaffe, author of "The Cooperstown Casebook" and inventor of the JAWS Hall of Fame predictor model, to discuss Hunter. What follows is an edited-for-length segment of that conversation.
MLB.com: What is Hunter¡¯s case for and against, in a nutshell?
Jaffe: The traditional case as it would¡¯ve been understood 20 years ago is that here you¡¯ve got a nine-time Gold Glove-winning center fielder, five-time All-Star, who hit over 350 home runs, who stole almost 200 bases, collected almost 2,500 hits. Was on a whole bunch of playoff teams. Never got to a World Series but consistently helped his teams toward the playoffs and did OK, had some big postseason moments. I think there¡¯s probably a point in Hall of Fame history when he would have been, I don¡¯t know about an easy call, but I don¡¯t think his election would have particularly raised eyebrows if it had come along 30 years ago.
The counterargument to that, the advanced-stat case, is that the fielding metrics that we have for him do not paint him as a particularly elite fielder. The contrast between that and the nine Gold Gloves is doing a lot to limit his value and therefore how he measures up in terms of wins above replacement and JAWS.
MLB.com: Is there a brief way to summarize what it is that the more advanced metrics don¡¯t like about his defense?
Jaffe: He had very good range but he did not have the elite range of some other great center fielders in terms of plays per game. He always looked good doing it, very graceful player. But it¡¯s kind of the Jim Edmonds problem in that a lot of times what you¡¯re seeing is that a guy who¡¯s making spectacular plays is not necessarily the best guy. He¡¯s maybe the most acrobatic guy, and that¡¯s certainly worth something from an entertainment standpoint. I¡¯m not going to belittle that at all. But a lot of times the guys who make it look easy are the ones who are better positioned and have to do less work.
MLB.com: What is something that surprised you when you researched his case and career?
Jaffe: I did not know what a hardscrabble background he came from. The gang world stuff that he escaped in Pine Bluff (Ark.), the details of his background. We tend to go straight to the numbers on these guys for a Hall of Fame case. And when I write up these guys, I have the luxury of going 3,000-4,000 words on them, and I really want to convey the fact that, look, even if I don¡¯t think Torii Hunter is a Hall of Famer, I respect the career and where these guys came from. And I did not know any of the stuff about his background. I don¡¯t think I¡¯ve come across too many cases in the time that I¡¯ve been doing this digging that I was like, wow, this is really eye-opening.
MLB.com: What do you see when you look at the Hall of Fame case that Carlos Correa is potentially building?
Jaffe: He got a great early start to his career. He¡¯s had some very big seasons for a shortstop on both sides of the ball. He is at 38.3 for his seven-year peak WAR. If you get to 40, there¡¯s about a 75 percent chance you¡¯re going to get in, so he¡¯s already got better than good odds of getting in because of the (early) start and the early excellence. Now the counter to that is we¡¯ve seen the injuries. We¡¯ve seen more injuries lately, trouble staying on the field. I¡¯m looking at his Baseball-Reference page. He played 153 games in his second year, and he hasn¡¯t played 150 since. That¡¯s (Troy) Tulowitzki level. That has me concerned. The fact that he was a key player on a repeat playoff team that won a World Series is kind of neutralized by the trash can scandal.
Thanks very much to Jay for his time. ¡°The Cooperstown Casebook¡± is currently out of print but can be found online. You can also read Jay¡¯s work at Fangraphs.com.