What to expect from Reds' Lowder in big leagues

When Rhett Lowder was taken No. 7 overall by the Reds in 2023 -- the second pitcher taken after Paul Skenes went 1-1 -- the thinking was that he fit the prototype of the really advanced college pitcher who could get to the big leagues in a hurry. This was a right-hander who posted a 1.87 ERA and a 5.96 K/BB ratio in his final year at Wake Forest, showcasing a very promising combination of stuff and precise command (1.8 BB/9) that pointed to not needing a lot of development time in the Minors.

After five fairly dominant starts with High-A Dayton to begin his pro career this summer, Lowder got bumped to Double-A Chattanooga, and we all thought he was on his way. But as we¡¯ve all seen time and time again, things don¡¯t always go exactly as planned or expected, even with someone as polished as Lowder. His introduction to Double-A was bumpy, to say the least. After his first nine starts, the current No. 34 prospect had a 6.69 ERA and .321 batting average against after allowing 53 hits in 39 innings.

Reports of his pure stuff remained good: His fastball averaged better than 93 mph and topped out at 96 mph, and he threw it for a ton of strikes during that stretch. He was throwing his mid-80s slider in the zone and getting a 34-percent miss rate on it. Perhaps the only thing that was a bit off was command of his mid-80s changeup, an offspeed offering with fade that was his best pitch entering pro ball, but one that he threw for strikes only 49 percent of the time.

Sometimes you learn more about a prospect from how they deal with adversity and how they make adjustments. And those lessons can inform what to expect from that prospect when they make their big league debut, as Lowder is set to do on Friday, proving that initial projections of him getting to Cincinnati quickly were pretty on point.

There wasn¡¯t anything mechanical Lowder needed to address. It was more a matter of adjusting how he was attacking pro hitters, his pitch sequencing and using his stuff a little differently than he had at Wake Forest. It¡¯s not just about how much he used each pitch, but during that initial rough stretch, his pitch breakdown was as follows, according to Synergy:

Fastball: 56 percent
Slider: 26 percent
Changeup: 18 percent

In his eight starts since, there clearly has been more emphasis on his breaking ball than his changeup:

Fastball: 53 percent
Slider: 36 percent
Changeup: 11 percent

He¡¯s had a particularly good feel for his slider lately, it seems, so he¡¯s gone to it more. It¡¯s also about which pitch he has used when, and the very cerebral 22-year-old¡¯s adjustments allowed things to really click, to the tune of a 1.62 ERA and .192 BAA in his eight starts from the beginning of July until now, seven in Double-A and one with Triple-A Louisville. He allowed just 30 hits in 44 1/3 IP over that stretch. He¡¯s thrown strikes all year (2.10 BB/9) but was even finer with his control as he figured things out, walking just 1.83 over those more recent successful outings. He¡¯s elicited more groundball contact and given up fewer home runs.

All of this puts him in a good place as he prepares to make his first big league start at Great American Ball Park, a pretty hitting-friendly place. He¡¯s no doubt learned a ton about what works and what doesn¡¯t against upper-level hitters, and while nothing is equal to the challenge of Major League hitters, he¡¯s long been one to know how to adjust, even within one start. And if he stumbles a little out of the gate, he can lean on what he just went through to have confidence that he¡¯ll figure it out relatively quickly. Even if his callup now has come as a result of need because of injuries, that creativity should allow him to stick in a big league rotation for a very long time.