Skippers might need GPS to navigate 27 outs in NLCS Game 4

PHOENIX -- D-backs manager Torey Lovullo called it “a road map” for pitching: Securing 27 outs by any means necessary, relying on data, scouting reports and what he called “limited emotion and limited stimulus.”

When Lovullo unfolded his road map Thursday during a 2-1 victory in National League Championship Series Game 3 at Chase Field, it pointed to the unpopular-but-effective decision to remove starter Brandon Pfaadt from the sixth inning of a shutout bid.

In NLCS Game 4 on Friday in Arizona, Lovullo will need to dig even deeper into his glove compartment to find a reliable map. Phillies manager Rob Thomson, meanwhile, hopes his relatively rested cadre of pitchers can piece together a crucial win.

Neither team will rely on a traditional starting pitching model in Game 4, leaving a wide path to 27 outs for both teams. Here’s how it could unfold:

PHILLIES
Game 4 starter: LHP Cristopher Sánchez
Best-rested relievers: RHP Taijuan Walker, RHP Michael Lorenzen, LHP Gregory Soto

Unlike the D-backs, the Phillies can at least hope for some length from their starter.

First, the bad: Sánchez didn’t pitch in the first two rounds of the playoffs, meaning he has gone nearly three full weeks without competitive game action. He hasn’t started a game since Sept. 24. As such, he’s no longer fully stretched out.

• Phillies vs. D-backs NLCS Game 4 FAQ

But Sánchez did last into the eighth inning of a game as recently as Sept. 13 and fired 107 pitches on Aug. 11. He also threw live batting practice last week in Philadelphia, plus another bullpen session Wednesday in preparation for a potential Game 4 start. Despite his limitations, Sánchez is still plenty capable of facing an opposing lineup more than once.

“I’m honestly very focused on this start,” he said through an interpreter. “I’ve been working really hard for this. I’m confident.”

Should anything go awry, the Phillies have additional length available in Walker and Lorenzen, two regular-season starters who have been used either rarely (Lorenzen) or not at all (Walker) this postseason. Should Sánchez falter or simply rack up a high pitch count early, the Phillies are well-covered. Soto, meanwhile, is a traditional reliever who hasn’t appeared since Game 4 of the NL Division Series against Atlanta on Oct. 12.

Much of this is likely to depend upon leverage. Should the Phillies find themselves on either side of a blowout, they’ll have the luxury of relying more heavily on the pitchers listed above. If they’re in another close game, they can turn back to higher-leverage relievers such as Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm.

• Suárez leaps Koufax on postseason ERA list

José Alvarado, who threw two scoreless innings in Game 3, could be unavailable for Game 4, though he needed just 15 pitches to record those six outs. Don’t completely rule him out.

In a perfect world, the Phillies will stay away from Craig Kimbrel, who threw 24 pitches in a wild ninth inning and hasn’t pitched on back-to-back days in nearly a month. But the postseason, for baseball managers, is not a perfect world.

D-BACKS
Game 4 starter: LHP Joe Mantiply
Best-rested relievers: RHP Miguel Castro, LHP Kyle Nelson, RHP Luis Frías

This profiles as a true bullpen game for the D-backs, who have already used all 13 pitchers on their NLCS roster and have no one who profiles as a true length option. The closest thing to it, Slade Cecconi, has thrown exactly one inning in the last four weeks, and Ryne Nelson has been used exclusively in short relief this October.

• Why Lovullo's hook of Pfaadt made sense

Mantiply will start, as he did three times during the regular season. He recorded between two and four outs in each of those instances, so he isn’t likely to be asked for much more than that in Game 4. Mantiply’s main purpose in this game will be to get through left-handed hitters Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper; he could depart after facing Bryson Stott, another lefty who typically bats fifth.

Beyond that, the map will point the way. Castro, Kyle Nelson and Frías last pitched in Game 1 and have histories of providing up to six outs when needed. On Friday, at least one of them is a solid bet to do so.

• Pfaadt delivers career start at perfect time

The good news for the D-backs is that all 10 of their relievers should be available. The only potential question mark is closer Paul Sewald, who threw 21 pitches in Game 3 and has produced a 7.67 ERA the last two seasons when pitching on consecutive days. But Sewald’s outing Thursday was his first in more than a week, making him another decent bet to be available.

For Lovullo, the pitching decisions Friday are likely to come down to matchups more than leverage. He can use anyone and everyone, knowing his road map also points to starting pitcher Zac Gallen providing length in Game 5 on Saturday.

“Look -- it’s not a perfect science what we do here,” Lovullo said. “We feel like we’re very thorough when we discuss it. It’s batters one, two and three, who’s got it? Batters two, three and four, who’s got it? Batters three, four and five, who’s got it? When you just keep chunking it down, you maximize the potential to keep a very potent offense in check.”