Dodgers finalize one-year deal with James Paxton

The Dodgers reached an agreement on a one-year contract with free-agent left-hander James Paxton, the club announced on Monday. The deal reportedly includes an $11 million salary, a $1 million Opening Day roster bonus and $1 million in performance incentives, though the team did not confirm the terms.

Paxton represents yet another add to a remade Los Angeles rotation after the club signed top-tier free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto and traded for Tyler Glasnow.

Paxton’s 2023 season wasn’t perfect, but the Canadian left-hander was surely happy to pitch again. In 2020 and 2021 combined, Paxton made just six starts with the Yankees and Mariners, respectively. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021 after one start in his return to Seattle, missing the rest of the year, signing with the Red Sox that offseason and missing 2022 entirely.

The lefty made his Red Sox debut on May 12, making 19 starts before being placed on the injured list on Sept. 10 with right knee inflammation. He allowed four or more runs in four of his final six starts, and his ERA was below 4.00 for most of the season until a 1 1/3-inning, 6-run outing in his final start on Sept. 1.

Despite his long layoff, Paxton produced solid Statcast metrics in 2023. His 24.6 percent strikeout rate was driven by an above-average 27.5 percent whiff rate, and his expected wOBA and expected batting average were above average as well. The lefty relies heavily on a four-seam fastball (55.8 percent usage rate) with strong horizontal movement, supplementing the pitch with his curveball (19.3 percent usage) and cutter (16.7 percent) as well as a changeup and sinker.

Paxton, who debuted in 2013, had a strong run with Seattle, owning a 3.42 ERA in six seasons in his original Mariners tenure. He made only 102 starts in that span, though, and has never made more than 29 starts in a season, which he accomplished with the Yankees in 2019. He has landed on the IL 12 different times in his career, including strains in his lat, his left middle finger, his forearm, his left elbow flexor, his left forearm and his right hamstring. The hamstring strain, suffered in his 2023 Spring Training debut, delayed Paxton’s first start with Boston until May.

Despite his injuries over the years, Paxton remains an effective starter. Over his best stretch of the 2023 season, across seven outings from May 31 to July 8, the lefty pitched to a 1.93 ERA, with 45 strikeouts in 42 innings. He tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Blue Jays on June 30 in Toronto, his best start of the season.

While he didn’t close the year well, fatigue -- plus his knee injury -- likely played a role. Paxton’s health is always a question, but 2023 was about as good as he could have hoped for and an encouraging sign for his long-term outlook.