Here are 7 Hot Takes for a sizzling offseason
Anthony Castrovince
@castrovinceThis is the time of year when anything appears possible.
Even more than Opening Day, when hope springs eternal for all 30 clubs, the onset of the offseason is fascinating because it¡¯s still so unclear what the final rosters will look like. It¡¯s the time of year when, for instance, you can come across a headline like, ¡°Rays reach out to Juan Soto,¡± because, hey, it¡¯s an open market, isn¡¯t it?
The Hot Stove, therefore, is the perfect time for Hot Takes. So here are a handful of thoughts I¡¯ve had while wondering if Jose Siri will give up his No. 22 jersey to Soto.
1. The Yankees might be better off without Juan Soto.
Everything I think about the Yankees¡¯ offseason boils down to this: Aaron Judge should not be in center field.
I¡¯m not saying that because Judge biffed a big ball in Game 5 of the World Series; I¡¯m saying that because there¡¯s no reason for a team with the Yankees¡¯ resources to have a player that old (Judge will be 33 next season), that big and that important in such a demanding defensive position. In the last 15 years, there have only been seven players -- Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Torii Hunter, Coco Crisp, Denard Span, Lorenzo Cain and Angel Pag¨¢n -- to have a season in which they qualified for the batting title in center field at the age of 33 or older. And none of them was 6-foot-7, 280 pounds.
Having Giancarlo Stanton at DH limits the Yankees¡¯ options with Judge. And if they¡¯re not going deep, deep, deep into luxury tax territory, then re-signing Soto reduces their flexibility and their ability to get more athletic elsewhere.
Just spitballing here, but what if, instead of Judge in center and Soto in right, you could have Judge in right, Jazz Chisholm Jr. in center, Alex Bregman at third base, Willy Adames at second base and Christian Walker at first base? According to MLB Trade Rumors¡¯ projections, you could sign Bregman, Adames and Walker for a long-term total of about $400 million, versus the $600 million it might take to keep Soto. And you would have a team that is deeper and more defensively dependable, albeit without a Gehrig to Judge¡¯s Ruth.
2. The Diamondbacks should keep Jordan Montgomery.
So ¡ this is awkward.
When Montgomery went unsigned last winter despite coming off his best season, the D-backs scooped him up late in Spring Training on a one-year, $25 million deal with a $22.5 million player option for 2024. It was a disaster. The late start did Montgomery no favors, and he never got into a groove. He pitched so poorly (6.23 ERA) that when the season ended Arizona owner Ken Kendrick publicly stated that he regretted the signing and took responsibility for having pushed for it.
Montgomery exercised the player option anyway, because, well, it¡¯s $22.5 million. You¡¯d do the same. And that has led to speculation that the D-backs might now deal Montgomery to divorce themselves from this sticky situation.
But even though the Snakes seemingly have a starting pitching surplus at the moment, that¡¯s only true until it¡¯s not. Selling low on Montgomery is senseless. Rather, I¡¯d embrace the awkwardness with Montgomery, because, when you look at his career, 2024 is a clear outlier. The two sides would be better off pursuing ways they can make each other better and salvage what¡¯s left of this deal. And to the D-backs¡¯ credit, GM Mike Hazen has already been working to smooth things over.
3. The A¡¯s should trade Brent Rooker.
A¡¯s general manager David Forst said, ¡°We are not trading Brent Rooker,¡± which sure makes it sound as though they are not trading Brent Rooker.
But I don¡¯t get it. Keeping the 26-year-old Mason Miller after his transcendent rookie season is one thing, given the long-term cost control involved. But Rooker is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and will play next season at age 30. He is an extraordinarily valuable trade chip in a market in which only one team can land Soto. His 165 OPS+ this season was the 16th-best ever for a qualified DH. His trade value will likely never be higher than it is right now. And while the A¡¯s did play .500 ball in the second half, they just aren¡¯t in a competitive enough position to be punting on opportunities to improve their long-term organizational outlook.
4. The NL East team that needs Pete Alonso most is not the Mets.
There seems to be this theory that Alonso is worth more to the Mets than any other team. Because of the prodigious power he¡¯s brought to their lineup since 2019. Because of his popularity. Because he hit that season-saving blast off the Brewers¡¯ Devin Williams in the NL Wild Card Series.
But it should be obvious that, for the Mets, signing the 26-year-old Soto should take precedence over re-upping with Alonso. They can do both, of course, but having Soto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo all inked for $20 million-plus through at least 2030 has the potential to hamstring the Mets down the road. And with or without Soto, there is an argument to be made for a (likely) more budget-friendly move for Walker or moving Mark Vientos to first base and improving defensively at the hot corner.
The team that actually needs Alonso most is the Nationals. Coming off five straight seasons with a sub-.440 winning percentage, they are at a pivotal point in player development where it¡¯s time to start creating a winning culture. They¡¯ve got good young starting pitching, and they graduated intriguing outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood to the big leagues this year. Still, they could use a proven centerpiece like Alonso, who would bring instant credibility to a lineup that was last in the NL in homers last season and got a lowly .686 OPS from first base.
5. No team should be more aggressive than the Orioles.
The above is not meant to suggest that the O¡¯s should be this offseason¡¯s biggest spender. I¡¯d venture to guess that title will go to whichever team signs Soto (duh). That won¡¯t be Baltimore. But after their second consecutive empty October, the O¡¯s have to raise the organizational stakes again. They made the big trade last offseason for Corbin Burnes and do deserve some credit for getting some big production out of Zach Eflin in a midseason trade market that was seriously short on starting pitching. That said, no team was in better position to make the Tigers an offer they couldn¡¯t refuse on Tarik Skubal, and that particular ship has sailed now that the Tigers proved themselves as contenders.
So it's on the O¡¯s to go elsewhere for their clear pitching needs, which only become more pressing with Burnes on the open market. They can let Burnes and his declining K rate walk, recoup Draft pick compensation and still find a way to improve the rotation. With new ownership and a still-stocked system, they have the ability to, say, sign Blake Snell and trade for Garrett Crochet. We dream big with Baltimore because of the upside and cost control of their young core. But that core will get a lot more expensive (and therefore more complicated) in the not-too-distant future, so it is incumbent upon the O¡¯s now to make sure this championship window is not wasted.
6. Walker Buehler will be the best starter signed this winter.
I¡¯m what the kids call a Walker Buehler ¡°stan.¡± I love the guy. He¡¯s got stuff, but he¡¯s also got guts. This is a team for which the likes of Max Scherzer and Tyler Glasnow have been unable to post in pivotal moments in recent years. But Buehler takes the ball. He did it on short rest in Game 6 of the 2021 NLCS when Scherzer had a dead arm (that may have had an impact on Buehler¡¯s elbow, which required Tommy John the following year). Buehler returned this year and again stepped up in the World Series, making it clear he was available to pitch in relief prior to Game 5 and then doing so with a perfect ninth just two days after starting Game 3.
Buehler had an uninspiring regular season, but he learned to pitch in this postseason without the same fastball that used to bully batters. The Dodgers did him a favor in not making the qualifying offer, though they might re-sign him, anyway. He¡¯s not among the very top free agents in a deep starter¡¯s market, but it says here that whoever lands Buehler will get a gamer who learned a lot about himself in 2024 and will provide the best value on the board.
7. Roki Sasaki should sign with my favorite team.
Not the Dodgers. That¡¯s not fair!