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This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson¡¯s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
DALLAS -- Another December, another heartbreak.
Nearly a year to the day of one of the wildest weeks in Blue Jays history -- the Shohei Ohtani saga -- they¡¯ve now been forced to watch as their latest high-profile pursuit, Juan Soto, signs elsewhere.
Soto¡¯s reported 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets is the largest contract in the history of professional sports, surpassing the 10-year, $700 million deal Ohtani signed with the Dodgers last offseason. Each time, the Blue Jays have been aggressive, wrangling the financial power of Rogers ownership to make a big, bold run at a superstar. Each time, they¡¯ve watched that player sign elsewhere.
These pursuits are difficult for an organization like the Blue Jays to grapple with. The baseball industry loves the debate of ¡°process vs. results,¡± which too often uses process as a shield when the results aren¡¯t there. It¡¯s encouraging that Toronto has been in these conversations, building on club-record payrolls, but coming second, third or fourth place in a pursuit like this doesn¡¯t matter. The harsh reality is that you either sign a player or you don¡¯t. Now, with New York still shaking, the Blue Jays face an absolutely crucial week for the organization¡¯s future.
The Blue Jays aren¡¯t alone, of course. The Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox were among the reported finalists for Soto, but two of those teams are coming off a World Series appearance just two months ago. The Blue Jays are a team still trying to climb that mountain, and as this club continues to fall short, it¡¯s clear that a major move is needed ¡ and soon.
THE PIVOT: WHAT COMES NEXT Earlier Sunday, MLB.com¡¯s Mark Feinsand reported that the Blue Jays are in on old friend Teoscar Hern¨¢ndez, but appear to prefer Anthony Santander, another power-hitting outfielder they know very well from his time with the Orioles.
The Red Sox intend to pursue Teoscar Hernandez if they don¡¯t sign Juan Soto, per source. Boston is believed to prefer Hernandez over Anthony Santander. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Hernandez, though it appears they prefer the switch-hitting Santander.
The Blue Jays need to completely rebuild their bullpen and they plan to add a starter, but given how quickly and dramatically the hitting market is moving, expect this to be where their focus stays for the time being. With Michael Conforto agreeing to a one-year deal with the Dodgers on Sunday, Hern¨¢ndez and Santander are next in line.
A year ago, Plan B wasn¡¯t as obvious following Ohtani¡¯s signing. What¡¯s clear in hindsight, though, is that the Blue Jays need to do more this time. Toronto opted to sign Justin Turner, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Kiermaier and Yariel Rodr¨ªguez, and while there was something to like about each deal, this organization did little to raise its ceiling. With both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette entering their final year of club control, there¡¯s no time left to fuss over the floor. This roster needs upside, excitement, power and a little bit of swagger, all of which require some bold moves from the front office.
WHAT ABOUT VLADDY? IMPACT ON GUERRERO This organization still orbits around Guerrero. Beyond Soto¡¯s brilliance on the baseball field, a deal of that magnitude would have represented something larger than an individual player. It would have signalled a full and complete commitment from the Blue Jays to sustaining this level of spending -- or likely growing it -- for the next decade plus.
Until we see another deal (or two) of four-plus years, it¡¯s reasonable to wonder what lies beyond 2025.
At first glance, it¡¯s easy to assume that the money once earmarked for Soto could be slid down the table for Guerrero, the beloved homegrown star. Vladdy¡¯s sharp, though, and knows that he has the opportunity to hit free agency as a 26-year-old. No, he¡¯s not Juan Soto, but does a deal like this convince Guerrero and his camp that he can touch $400 million instead of $300 million? Perhaps $35 million annually instead of $28 million?
Those are hypotheticals for another day, but they don¡¯t make a deal any easier for the Blue Jays to strike.
Consider the Blue Jays back at square one then, which doesn¡¯t need to be a bad thing. It¡¯s about Guerrero again, the full focus back on keeping their own star after another winter spent chasing others. Part of the allure of Ohtani and Soto was imagining them alongside Vladdy, and until the Blue Jays either extend Guerrero or pair him with a star who is here to stay, the risk of a window closing will only grow.