'Definitely a good sign': Gausman exudes confidence after strong spring debut

BRADENTON, Fla. -- The beauty of the Blue Jays¡¯ rotation lies in its predictability. It¡¯s led by four veterans who, if all goes well, will be rock solid and reliable in every way.

Upside is too often left out of that conversation -- perhaps reserved for the ¡°young buck¡± of the group, Bowden Francis -- but Kevin Gausman can force that back in.

It¡¯s barely March, but when you consider Gausman¡¯s track record, the flashes he showed in his Grapefruit League debut Wednesday in Bradenton were extremely encouraging. He¡¯s healthy this spring, ¡°sturdier¡± thanks to putting on some offseason weight, and everything looks so much better than it did a year ago, when Gausman was stuck chasing Opening Day after some right shoulder fatigue slowed his start to camp.

¡°This is a lot different than last spring,¡± Gausman said.

Gausman touched 96.2 mph over 1 2/3 innings against the Pirates and averaged 94.9 mph with his fastball, 1 mph above where that pitch sat a year ago (93.9). It¡¯s too early to care about strikeouts and whiff rates for a veteran like Gausman, who uses spring starts to get a feel for certain pitches in certain spots, but once the season finally gets here, that¡¯s where all of the attention should be.

¡°Last spring, I think it was a lot harder to get to 86, especially those first couple of weeks,¡± Gausman said. ¡°That was definitely a good sign, but more than anything, I was throwing my offspeed really hard, which is a good sign.¡±

The glaring difference between Gausman¡¯s excellent 2023 season and ¡®24 was his strikeout rate, which dropped from 31.1% to 21.4%. This isn¡¯t a matter of decimal points. We¡¯re talking about a couple of strikeouts each appearance, creating a major difference between Gausman¡¯s ¡®23 and ¡®24 seasons. You can tie that drop in strikeouts to Gausman¡¯s splitter and slider, the two pitches he¡¯s leaned on to miss bats.

Splitter: Whiff rate dropped from 43.2% to 33.5%

Slider: Whiff rate dropped from 35.3% to 26.6%

¡°Command,¡± Gausman said, quickly identifying the one difference. ¡°That¡¯s more important than anything. If you look at last season, I don¡¯t know how many walks I had, but it was a lot, especially compared to the two years before, even the three or four years going back. When I¡¯m able to throw my fastball in the zone and when the splitter carries it, that¡¯s when I get the strikeouts.¡±

Granted, in 2024, Gausman still posted a 3.83 ERA over 181 innings. It¡¯s almost cruel to frame that season as a ¡°step back," but Gausman¡¯s talent is so incredible to watch at its peak. Even battling through a slow spring and missing fewer bats, he put together a stat line most starters in this league chase every year.

Gausman is 34 now. He knows, as well as anyone, that pitching at 34 feels different than 24, but he¡¯s worked over the years to find a sweet spot, one which allows him to be just as strong down the stretch as he is in April and May. Gausman and the organization have developed a bit of a different plan this season, trying to recapture the full magic of his 2023 season.

¡°Working through that with him was important throughout the offseason, adjusting his throwing a little bit,¡± manager John Schneider said. ¡°We built him up accordingly so that the first outing isn¡¯t just one inning or two innings. We want to make sure that he¡¯s good to go. He¡¯s in a really good spot. Like anything, you try to make adjustments year-to-year and you want to keep the player involved with that, too, especially a veteran.¡±

Gausman¡¯s ceiling in 2025 is so important because, by this point, we understand where this team¡¯s floor is. This is a team -- and rotation -- stacked with established veterans. While Francis fills a fun role as the No. 5, trying to carry over the momentum from his near no-hitters into a new year, Gausman feels like this group¡¯s best bet to truly raise the ceiling and change the trajectory of this team.

If the Blue Jays have Gausman standing on top of a solid rotation, that¡¯s where the real fun starts. A reliable rotation is a great starting point, but Gausman can make this group something more.