30-35 starts? 200 IP? L車pez's goals are lofty, but well within reach

February 25th, 2025

NORTH PORT, Fla. -- *s conversion from reliever to starter last season went even better than the greatest optimist could have anticipated. Now, the All-Star hurler is aiming to do what no Braves pitcher has done in the past 10 years.

※I feel like last year was a good opportunity to establish a base,§ L車pez said through an interpreter. ※Building off that last year, I want to make the 30-35 starts and my goal is to hit 200 innings.§

No Braves pitcher has reached the 200-inning mark since Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran did in 2015. So, L車pez*s goal might be a lofty one, considering he has completed 100-plus innings just once this decade. But as the 31-year-old proved while totaling 135 2/3 innings last season (4 1/3 innings more than his combined total from 2022-23 with the White Sox, Angels and Guardians), maybe it*s not wise to doubt his potential workload.

No longer bidding for a rotation spot or wondering how long he might remain a starter, L車pez took another step toward the 2025 regular season Tuesday when he made his Grapefruit League debut during a 6-1 split-squad win against the Red Sox. He recorded two strikeouts and allowed one hit and one walk in two scoreless innings, giving the Braves further hope that his second year as a starter could be even better than the first.

※We*ll take it start by start, but I think he intends on a much bigger workload than what he had last year,§ manager Brian Snitker said. ※We just wanted to get through it last year.§

When L車pez arrived at Spring Training in 2023, there were doubts about whether he should move to the rotation. He had posted a 3.02 ERA as a reliever in the past two seasons. His last experience as a starter came with the White Sox in '21, when he posted a 5.90 ERA in 19 combined starts between Triple-A Charlotte and the Major Leagues.

It*s safe to say that L車pez greatly exceeded expectations when he posted a 1.99 ERA over 26 appearances (25 starts) for the Braves last year. Greg Maddux (1.56 in 1994 and 1.63 in '95) and Bill James (1.90 in '14) are the franchise*s only other pitchers to post a sub-2.00 ERA over at least 25 starts in a season since 1913, when MLB began recognizing earned runs as an official stat.

※I just admired last year how he pitched,§ Snitker said. ※He*d be [throwing] 92 or 93 [mph], and then all of the sudden 98 if he had to have it. He was pitching.§

L車pez posted a 3.91 ERA and totaled a career-high 188 2/3 innings in 32 starts for the White Sox in 2018. He completed 184 innings over 33 starts in the next season, but the struggles he encountered in '19 (5.38 ERA) carried through the next couple of seasons and led to his shift to the bullpen.

How did L車pez's two seasons as a reliever better prepare him for this stint as a starter?

※When you*re in the bullpen, you just have to focus on one inning,§ L車pez said. "So, every pitch matters, and you have to attack the hitters. That*s what I*m doing as a starter. I*m trying to attack the hitters with strike one. I think that*s the difference between last year and previous seasons.§

L車pez*s 64.3 first-pitch strike percentage last season was much better than the marks he produced as a starter in 2018 (59.8) and '19 (60.1). It was also better than the 61.4 and 61.5 percentages he produced as a reliever in 2022 and &23, respectively.

Consistently getting ahead helped L車pez gain value from his secondary pitches. The pitch value for his slider jumped from -1 in 2023 to 12 in '24. His curveball*s value rose from 1 to 5.

If L車pez can build on last season's success, Atlanta could again have one of the game*s top rotations. Spencer Schwellenbach is aiming to prove his rookie season was no fluke. Chris Sale will bid to win a second consecutive Cy Young Award. And Spencer Strider could again become baseball*s top strikeout artist when he returns from right elbow surgery at some point in April.

※I think it could be a scary starting rotation,§ L車pez said.

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