Trade fits for 5 top remaining candidates

December 13th, 2024

The Hot Stove season was jolted to life with when the Mets landed superstar slugger with a 15-year, $765 million deal, the largest contract in sports history. Shortly thereafter, one of the top starting pitchers on the market, left-hander , signed a record free-agent contract for a southpaw, agreeing to a $218 million pact with the Yankees.

But while free agency heats up, so, too, does the trade market after the first major deal of the offseason sent left-hander from the White Sox to the Red Sox. In recent years, some blockbuster deals were struck that sent ripples across baseball, including a move last year that sent Soto from the Padres to the Yankees, with whom he reached the World Series.

Where could some of this year¡¯s top remaining trade candidates end up in the weeks and months to come? We asked five MLB.com writers to propose some trade packages for five stars who have a good chance of being moved before the 2025 season begins.

Orioles turn to trade market -- again -- for an ace

Orioles get: RHP

Why it makes sense: One year after trading from their wealth of talented young players to acquire a proven ace who had one season left before free agency, the Orioles can do it again to replace that very pitcher. Granted, the free agent in question -- -- is still available for Baltimore to sign, but with other teams likely pursuing him more aggressively, the O¡¯s need to have a backup plan in place. And with Fried and off the market, a trade for Cease might be their best course of action.

The Padres have shown a willingness to be proactive when it comes to players nearing free agency, trading Soto to the Yankees for five players -- one of whom, pitcher , was included in a package for Cease -- last offseason. So when a report emerged during the Winter Meetings that San Diego is open to listening to offers for Cease and a number of other veterans, it wasn¡¯t that surprising.

Headlining the return for Cease in this hypothetical trade is the 25-year-old Kjerstad, who was MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 32 overall prospect entering 2024. San Diego could use him to replace free agent in left field. Povich, 24, could also contribute to the Padres¡¯ pitching staff in 2025 after getting his feet wet in the Majors a year ago. And the speedy Bradfield -- a first-round Draft pick in 2023, would give Padres general manager A.J. Preller added prospect capital to use toward another trade, perhaps to replace Cease with another starter who has a longer window of team control.

The Orioles may be hesitant to part with Kjerstad, but he still doesn¡¯t have a clear path to playing time in Baltimore¡¯s outfield after the team signed Tyler O¡¯Neill as a free agent. Trading him in a package for a pitcher who can improve their 2025 title hopes substantially is a sensible move.

Biggest obstacle: Given the drastic difference in budgets between the two clubs, the Brewers were likely much more motivated to move Burnes last offseason than the Padres are with Cease now. Preller may be receptive to trade offers for Cease to take advantage of the demand for impact starters, but it doesn¡¯t seem like the Padres are in a hurry to deal him. They may be even less so now that Crochet has been traded to the Red Sox. One scenario floated at the Winter Meetings involved San Diego trading Cease for prospects and then flipping them in a package for Crochet, who has two years of team control remaining. But that is no longer a possibility.

-- Thomas Harrigan

Rangers acquire an elite closer as final piece for another World Series run

Rangers get: RHP

Brewers get: RHP (Rangers' No. 4 prospect)

Why it makes sense: The Rangers went from World Series champions to also-rans in the span of a season, but they have all the pieces in place to make another run in 2025. Except for a closer. Texas lost its three best relievers to free agency -- , and . Signing is a start ¡­ but Webb is no Williams. This team needs an elite closer to join the rest of its stars. And the Brewers? They need starting pitching. Leiter is a high-risk, high-ceiling prospect who's struggled with command as a pro and got shelled in his big league debut last year -- but his stuff is electric, he's big league ready, and Milwaukee has been successful at pitcher development.

Biggest obstacle: The Rangers just traded away three prospects to get slugging corner infielder Jake Burger from the Marlins -- middle infielder , shortstop and left-hander , all three of whom now rank among Miami's Top 30 prospects. They'd have to trade more to land Williams -- and potentially better ones, since Williams is one of the best closers in baseball, even if he is a one-year rental. Do the Rangers want to dig further into their farm system and give up on their former No. 2 overall Draft pick? They probably see Leiter's ceiling as still high. But on the other side, do the Brewers want to take that risk on Leiter with all his struggles to this point?

-- David Adler

Tucker heads to Philadelphia in All-Star swap

Phillies get: RF

Astros get: 3B , RHP (Phillies¡¯ No. 6 prospect)

Why it makes sense: The Phillies are looking to shake up their lineup after their bats went silent in the postseason. Philadelphia won the National League pennant in 2022 and came just one win shy of returning to the World Series in ¡®23, but despite posting the best record in the NL last season, the Phils won just one postseason game before being ousted in the NL Division Series by the Mets. They still have a solid core featuring both a perennial MVP candidate in and a perennial Cy Young threat in , but the offense has become prone to team-wide slumps, thanks in large part to the streakiness of guys such as Bohm, and .

Bohm¡¯s struggles reached a tipping point in the NLDS when he was benched amid a prolonged slump -- and some concerns over his attitude. The Phils obviously aren¡¯t going to move Harper or Schwarber, and Castellanos¡¯ contract likely makes him tougher to trade, so sending Bohm to Houston in exchange for a three-time All-Star averaging 28 homers, 20 steals and 90 RBIs over the past three seasons could be just the change Philadelphia needs.

Biggest obstacle: Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the price the Red Sox paid to acquire Crochet from the White Sox -- a package that included two Top 100 prospects -- was too steep for the Phils at this time. Manager Rob Thomson also recently said that the club isn¡¯t actively shopping Bohm, though it is listening to interested suitors. Whether the Phillies are ready to part with the third baseman, who despite his ups and downs has become a key player in the organization, or any of their top prospects remains to be seen.

-- Paul Casella

Cubs, Mariners swap established stars to address glaring needs

Cubs get: RHP

Mariners get: 2B , 3B (MLB¡¯s No. 73 prospect, Cubs¡¯ No. 7), RHP (Cubs¡¯ No. 22 prospect)

Why it makes sense: Adding to the starting rotation is arguably the Cubs¡¯ biggest need coming out of the Winter Meetings. However, they probably won¡¯t be shopping at the top of the free-agent market, especially after Fried agreed to an eight-year contract worth $27.25 million per season with the Yankees. Castillo isn¡¯t exactly cheap by comparison -- he will cost about $24 million per over the final three years of his contract, which contains a $25 million vesting option for 2028 -- but for a 32-year-old frontline starter who is reliable for a sub-4.00 ERA, at least 170 innings, plenty of strikeouts and not too many walks, he is a relative bargain. Castillo would seemingly slot in perfectly between Cubs left-handers and .

Second base has been a problem area for the Mariners for a long time. They haven¡¯t recorded a .700 OPS from that spot since 2017. The 27-year-old Hoerner isn¡¯t a superstar with the bat, but his .719 OPS over the past two seasons while playing mostly at the keystone position far surpasses what Mariners second basemen have done at the plate (.634 OPS). Thanks to Hoerner¡¯s fantastic defensive skills, he ranks fourth among second basemen in fWAR since the start of 2023 (7.7). Mariners second basemen during that time have an fWAR of 3.3. Hoerner is under contract through 2026 for $23.5 million.

Smith gives the Mariners a possible solution at third base, another troublesome spot on the infield for them. He likely won¡¯t make an impact in the Majors next year, but the 2024 first-round Draft pick had a strong debut in pro ball, slashing .313/.396/.609 across three levels. Birdsell has come up through the Minors as a starter and had a decent stint at Triple-A Iowa this year -- 4.26 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 61 1/3 frames. He could be ready to help out in the big leagues in 2025.

Biggest obstacle: There are at least two. Castillo¡¯s contract includes a full no-trade clause for one more year, so he could nix this straightaway. Plus, the Mariners may be hesitant to take on Hoerner, who underwent right forearm surgery in October and may still be recovering at the start of next season.

-- Brian Murphy

Reds add five-tool slugger to upgrade in the outfield

Reds get: CF

White Sox get: 3B (Reds¡¯ No. 5 prospect), RHP (No. 11), INF

Why it makes sense: The Reds have a burgeoning group of young stars who have yet to put it all together and make a postseason run. Led by the ultra-toolsy , who is coming off a history-making 25-homer/67-steal campaign, and rising talents such as , , , and , Cincinnati is poised for contention in the NL Central. Adding to that group another young star who, if it hadn¡¯t been for injuries, could be a multiple-time All-Star by this point, could go a long way toward making that a reality in 2025.

Robert, 27, is just a season removed from smashing 38 home runs with an .857 OPS for the White Sox in an All-Star campaign. That 2023 season was the only one to this point in his career in which he played in more than 100 games, which raises the obvious question of whether he¡¯ll be healthy enough moving forward to have a real impact. But if he is and he cuts down on his strikeouts (33% strikeout rate last season), that impact could be big.

The Reds could use an upgrade in center field, a position from which they got a .220/.303/.408 slash line in 2024. Robert, who won a Gold Glove Award as a rookie in ¡¯20, would also be a significant upgrade at the position defensively for Cincinnati. From a payroll perspective, Robert¡¯s contract is relatively team-friendly -- he¡¯ll be owed $15 million next season, but after that, there are $20 million club options (with a $2 million buyout) for ¡¯26 and ¡¯27, mitigating the risk that he doesn¡¯t pan out.

Biggest obstacle: The biggest obstacle would likely be the return for Chicago. Given Robert¡¯s five-tool potential and what he was able to do in a healthy 2023 campaign, the White Sox reportedly want a pretty substantial return despite the lengthy injury history. Without one of the top four prospects in Cincinnati¡¯s system (each a Top 100 prospect per MLB Pipeline) in the deal, the White Sox might not budge on Robert.

-- Manny Randhawa

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