10 eye-popping player projections for 2025
Before every season, we like to take a look at player projections just to see what numbers pop. It's time for the 2025 editions.
These are some of the players who stand out this year, looking at the Steamer projections over at FanGraphs.
Here are 10 players with eye-opening projections for the 2025 season.
1) Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Dodgers
Hitting: 43 HR, 34 SB, 104 RBIs, .939 OPS
Pitching: 3.48 ERA, 141 K, 10.5 K/9
8.1 combined WAR
Ohtani is projected for a return to two-way superstardom. The reigning NL MVP, coming off the best hitting season of his career, is also expected to pitch again in 2025. And Steamer sees two-way Ohtani as the most valuable player in baseball. Ohtani's 8.1 total projected Wins Above Replacement -- 5.6 WAR as a hitter, 2.5 WAR as a pitcher -- is the highest of any player in MLB, ahead of Bobby Witt Jr.'s 7.4.
After his historic 50-50 season in 2024, Ohtani is projected for 43 home runs (second-most of any hitter behind Aaron Judge) and 34 stolen bases in 2025, making him one of three players projected for a 30-30 season along with Witt and Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez. And Ohtani's projections as a pitcher are really good, too.
2) Juan Soto, OF, Mets
35 HR, .421 OBP, .959 OPS, 128 BB to 112 K, 169 wRC+
Soto signing with the Mets was one of the biggest stories of the offseason, and Steamer projects him to immediately take over as the best hitter in the National League. Ohtani might be the best overall player when you include his pitching, but Soto's projected 169 wRC+ is the top hitting projection of any NL player. (It means Steamer sees him as being almost 70% better than a league average hitter.) Ohtani is next in the NL with a projected 156 wRC+ -- that's a significant gap between him and Soto.
Soto is also projected to lead the National League in OPS and lead the Majors in walks and on-base percentage. Once again, Steamer thinks he'll have way more walks than strikeouts, which is a rarity for most hitters but a Soto signature.
3) Paul Skenes, SP, Pirates
188 IP, 2.80 ERA, 242 K, 11.6 K/9, 31.9% K%, 5.8 WAR
Expect more total domination from Skenes in 2025. The Pirates' superstar young ace is poised to take over as the No. 1 pitcher in the Majors. Steamer has Skenes as the most valuable pitcher in baseball this season with a projected 5.8 WAR.
Skenes is also projected to win the MLB ERA crown (2.80) and strikeout title (242). A year after we saw pitching Triple Crown winners in both leagues, Tarik Skubal in the AL and Chris Sale in the NL, Skenes could be the top contender to do it in 2025.
4) Roki Sasaki, SP, Dodgers
3.30 ERA, 179 K, 11.6 K/9, 31.6% K%
There's already so much hype surrounding Sasaki. But the early projections for the Japanese superstar in his first MLB season think Sasaki will be electric right away.
Sasaki's strikeout projections, on a rate basis, rival Skenes'. Steamer projects the 23-year-old fireballer for 11.6 K/9 and a 31.6% strikeout rate, which are both top-five among starting pitchers and essentially the same projections Skenes has in both categories. Sasaki is projected to rack up 179 strikeouts in just under 139 innings. He could instantly be one of MLB's premier strikeout artists.
5) Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers
152 IP, 2.86 ERA, 206 K, 12.2 K/9, 34.2% K%, 5.1 WAR
It's been five years since deGrom had a full, healthy season. But the projections think he's still a Cy Young-caliber pitcher.
DeGrom is projected for a monster year in 2025. His projected 2.86 ERA is the best among AL starters. His projected 12.2 K/9 and 34.2% strikeout rate are the best among all MLB starters. His projected 206 strikeouts would give him his first 200-K season since 2019. And his projected 5.1 WAR would make him the most valuable pitcher in the AL. That's the deGrom we all want to see.
6) Julio Rodr¨ªguez, CF, Mariners
30 HR, 28 SB, 135 wRC+, 6.1 WAR
Steamer sees J-Rod returning to an MVP level in 2025. By WAR, he's projected to be a top-10 player in baseball, and pushing for the top five -- only Ohtani, Witt, Gunnar Henderson, Judge and Soto are projected to be more valuable than Rodr¨ªguez.
Rodr¨ªguez had a bit of a down season in 2024, but the 24-year-old is one of MLB's most dynamic power-speed stars, and the projections believe in a big bounceback from him. A 30-30 season could be in the cards in 2025 if Rodr¨ªguez can exceed his projections by even a little bit.
7) Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
28 HR, 27 SB, 96 R, 119 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
Similar to Rodr¨ªguez, Chourio could be a 30-30 player in 2025. He went 20-20 as a 20-year-old rookie in 2024. Can he get to 30-30 at age 21? Chourio is a special talent, which is why his impressive Steamer projections are pretty easily believable.
Chourio is one of only 10 players projected for at least 25 homers and 25 steals this season. The others: Ohtani, Witt, Ram¨ªrez, Rodr¨ªguez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Luis Robert Jr., Ronald Acu?a Jr., Elly De La Cruz and Corbin Carroll. That's a star-studded group to be a part of.
8) Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets
34 HR, 96 RBIs 120 wRC+
If Pete Alonso doesn't return to the Mets, someone will have to step up to replace his home run power in the heart of the order. That someone could be Vientos, who broke out for the Mets in 2024 with 27 home runs in the regular season and five more in the playoffs.
The projections think Vientos' breakout was no fluke. Steamer thinks he'll be even better in 2025. Vientos is projected for 34 home runs this season -- a top-10 mark in the Majors, and only two less homers than Alonso is projected for -- as well as close to 100 RBIs. That would make the 25-year-old a top-tier middle-of-the-order slugger for New York worthy of batting alongside Soto and Francisco Lindor.
9) Max Fried, SP, Yankees
173 IP, 3.36 ERA, 165 K, 3.3 WAR
The Yankees starting rotation already had Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rod¨®n and Luis Gil, but it's Fried, New York's marquee free-agent signing this winter, who's projected to be the Yankees' most valuable pitcher.
The left-hander is projected by Steamer to be a highly dependable workhorse. He's not projected for as many strikeouts as Cole or Rod¨®n, but his projected ERA is easily the lowest among the Yankees starters. The main takeaway, though, is that, with Fried, the Yankees look like they have one of the deepest rotations in the Majors.
10) F¨¦lix Bautista, RP, Orioles
26 SV, 2.76 ERA, 90 K, 13.1 K/9, 35.9% K%
The Orioles bullpen just hasn't been the same without the Mountain. But Baltimore will get its overpowering closer back in 2025, and the projections think Bautista won't miss a beat.
Bautista is projected by Steamer for 26 saves, a 2.76 ERA and 90 strikeouts, with a 13.1 K/9 and 35.9% strikeout rate. Those are dominant numbers. Bautista's projected ERA, K/9 and strikeout rate are all second-best among relievers for 2025 behind Mason Miller, and he's one of just nine relievers projected for at least 90 strikeouts. If he's as good as the projections say, Bautista will be a huge difference-maker for an O's team looking to reach a third straight postseason.