It¡¯s that time of the year again: Which likely Hall of Famers can you expect to see play live and in person in the Major Leagues in 2025?

We¡¯ve been doing this since at least 2016, at which point we noted that some young stars who had been in the Majors for less than two years might already be on their way to Cooperstown, like Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor. We¡¯ll take the wins there. We also included Michael Conforto and Miguel San¨® in that group. You just never really know how these things are going to go.

But, as we explained last year, the number we¡¯re shooting for is 40, because between 1955-95, there were an average of 39 Hall of Famers playing each year. That the 40-year span there encompasses baseball¡¯s expansion from 16 teams to 28 yet the number of active Hall of Famers rarely moves helps reinforce that the myth of the Hall ¡°letting in too many players¡± is exactly that, a myth; if anything, it¡¯s been too restrictive to adapt as the size of the sport continues to grow.

So: Who will we see this year? As always, we¡¯ll break them into tiers, and we¡¯ll show them with FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For context there, the average Hall of Famer ends up with something between 50 to 70 WAR, while the all-time inner-circle greats manage to get north of 100 WAR. It¡¯s an important measuring tool in these conversations though, as you¡¯ll see, it¡¯s not everything.

Tier 1: They were in years ago.

1. Mike Trout (85.7 WAR)
2. Justin Verlander (82 WAR)
3. Clayton Kershaw (76.4 WAR)
4. Max Scherzer (73.2 WAR)

Trout was making a credible case for The Greatest Player Of All-Time before a run of late-career injuries, but he¡¯s a three-time MVP who solidified his Hall position many years ago. He could never play again and still be a first-ballot near-unanimous choice.

As for Verlander, Scherzer, and Kershaw, there¡¯s a reckoning coming soon about how we value the changing role of starting pitchers, but none of that will apply to this first-ballot trio, who have combined for 27 All-Star appearances, nine Cy Young wins (three apiece), and a pair of Most Valuable Player Awards. None has anything further to prove, and hasn¡¯t for some time. The only caveat here is that while Verlander has agreed to a deal with the Giants, per source, neither Kershaw nor Scherzer actually have 2025 contracts at the moment. That said, both have said they expect to play, and we expect they will too.

Tier 2: May as well start engraving those plaques

5. Freddie Freeman (61.1 WAR)
6. Mookie Betts (59.7 WAR)
7. Jose Altuve (58 WAR)
8. Paul Goldschmidt (56.5 WAR)
9. Francisco Lindor (54.2 WAR)
10. Manny Machado (53.6 WAR)
11. Bryce Harper (52.5 WAR)
12. Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez (51.5 WAR)
13. Aaron Judge (51.4 WAR)
14. Nolan Arenado (50.6 WAR)

This is a group of 30-somethings who have all been stars for most of the last decade, if not more. Even if some of them could probably use another big year to push past the finish line, there¡¯s more than enough of a case for all of them to say it¡¯s more likely than not they'll get in, particularly since most of these guys should have some production left to offer.

To highlight a few of the more interesting ones: Lindor is going to end up with 300 homers and 200 steals, to go with elite shortstop defense, and the only other player in history with any real shortstop time to hit the 300/200 mark was Alex Rodr¨ªguez, who moved to third base at age 28. Judge, if he does nothing else at all, has two of the three best seasons by a righty in AL/NL history. Goldschmidt, though currently well past his peak, has 11 seasons of 20+ homers and four Gold Gloves to go with his 2022 MVP award.

Arenado might be remembered as one of the five best fielding third basemen ever, and he has 341 homers (and counting) to go with that. Machado's career has been extremely similar, and so he'll get in, too. When they do, and when the no-longer-perpetually-underrated Ram¨ªrez joins them, it will go a long way towards resolving the Hall's long-time problem of underrepresenting third basemen.

We¡¯re not saying all are 100% unanimous first-ballot slam dunks. But they¡¯ve all been playing at such a high level for such a long time and, in many cases, are still playing at that level, that it¡¯s far more likely than not that each finds a plaque in Cooperstown.

Honorable mentions here to Trea Turner and Corey Seager, who will each have good cases that may end up just a bit short, but it¡¯s also worth pointing out who else isn¡¯t on this list, each of whom made previous versions of this exercise: Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Yelich and Rafael Devers. That¡¯s primarily due to space; we¡¯re trying to stick to 40 names, and there are just so many great players out there. But for the moment, Correa and Yelich¡¯s cases have been slowed by injury, while the others may have their careers being remembered more for ¡°being extremely good¡± rather than ¡°all-time great.¡±

Tier 3: The Living Legends In Their Primes zone

15. Shohei Ohtani (40.4 WAR)
16. Juan Soto (36.3 WAR)

We break this pair into their own section to acknowledge that unlike the players above, they¡¯re not technically eligible for the Hall of Fame yet, as players must appear in a minimum of 10 seasons before they can appear on a ballot. For Ohtani and Soto, 2025 will be their eighth seasons. (Judge is at nine, so the moment he steps on a field in 2025, he¡¯ll be eligible.)

It also doesn¡¯t matter. It¡¯s difficult to imagine literally anything at all that could prevent Ohtani, a three-time MVP and international superstar who long ago surpassed any mere two-way comparisons to Babe Ruth, from being selected when his time comes.

Soto, four years younger, has accomplished so much in his young career already that there¡¯s at least some chance he hits 500-plus homers and sets the all-time record for walks. Or, put another way: Soto¡¯s 36.3 WAR through age-25 is more than a handful of Hall of Famers had in their entire careers. Even though he¡¯d likely wear a Mets hat if and when he gets there, never forget that his case was all but settled before he ever put their uniform on.

Tier 4: Mr. 500.

17. Giancarlo Stanton (42.5 WAR)

This won¡¯t be a conversation about WAR. It won¡¯t be a conversation about defensive value or batting average. It will come down, simply, to this: If Stanton gets to 500 homers, he¡¯ll be in the Hall of Fame. He¡¯s currently 71 away, which means three more years of 24 homers, and even with his recent issues staying healthy and making contact, he¡¯s hit 24 or more in each of the last four seasons. Every player who has ever hit 500 homers has made or will make it into the Hall, setting aside those with PED connections, which isn't an issue for Stanton.

Throw in the 2017 NL MVP, a run of postseason excellence ¨C beyond just the seven homers he hit this past October, his .994 career postseason OPS is seventh-best all-time, minimum 150 postseason plate appearances ¨C and a credible reputation as The Hardest-Hitting Man Who Ever Lived, and this will be an easy call, so long as he gets to 500. (It¡¯s possible Pete Alonso tries this track someday, but he¡¯s 82 homers short of Stanton at the same age and doesn¡¯t have the MVP, so he¡¯s not really in the picture.)

Tier 5: Young stars on the right path.

18. Ronald Acu?a Jr. (28.3 WAR)
19. Yordan Alvarez (23.3 WAR)
20. Fernando Tatis Jr. (20.4 WAR)
21. Bobby Witt Jr. (18.5 WAR)
22. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (17 WAR)
23. Julio Rodr¨ªguez (15.4 WAR)
24. Gunnar Henderson (13.6 WAR)
25. Corbin Carroll (10.8 WAR)

Some of these players have been on the Hall of Fame radar for years, and remain so now, but they also serve as an excellent reminder of the ups and downs that can come along the way, be it injury (Acu?a), inconsistency (Guerrero), or injury and controversy (Tatis). Remember: Back in 2016, we¡¯d have been talking about Andrew McCutchen or Kris Bryant here, though we also included Harper and Machado way back when as well.

Among this group of seven, none has even reached his 28th birthday, at least not until Alvarez does in June. That¡¯s right: For as many years as we¡¯ve been talking about Acu?a, Tatis and Guerrero, they¡¯re still that young. We can¡¯t handwave away all the time that Acu?a has missed due to knee injuries; we also can¡¯t forget he won a Rookie of the Year and an MVP by the time he was 25. Similarly, the suspension that cost Tatis all of his age-23 season won¡¯t ever be forgotten, but he¡¯s returned with a pair of strong seasons and is still only 26 years old.

Honorable mention here to the likes of Adley Rutschman and Kyle Tucker, who each have shown greatness yet have considerable work to do in order to get into the Cooperstown conversation.

Tier 6: We¡¯re going to have to include some starting pitchers, aren¡¯t we?

26. Chris Sale (54 WAR)
27. Gerrit Cole (46 WAR)
28. Zack Wheeler (37.2 WAR) or someone like him

The Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer group may still be active, but they belong to a different baseball generation, as far as these things go. Cole is a six-time All Star and 2023 Cy Young winner who has touched 200 innings six different times, and may be the last of the ¡°old school¡± pitchers. Sale is probably borderline due to how much time he missed in his 30s due to injury, but he revived his career in 2024 with a dominating NL Cy Young campaign that put his candidacy back on the map.

And then?

No starter will ever get to 300 wins again. It might be rare just to get to 200 wins, really, but then also, fewer and fewer voters even care about pitcher wins in the first place. In the same way that today¡¯s starters won¡¯t post numbers that compare to Tom Seaver¡¯s, well, Seaver¡¯s numbers didn¡¯t compare to Walter Johnson¡¯s, either. As we¡¯ve written about a number of times, there¡¯s going to have to be a major change in the way we view starting pitchers, or else we¡¯re never going to elect another starter again ¨C and that¡¯s not what will actually happen.

So even if Wheeler doesn¡¯t ¡°feel¡± like a Hall of Famer, and we agree he mostly doesn¡¯t, when you break down his case ¨C as we did in November ¨C it becomes clear that if we¡¯re interested in simply inducting the best starters of their time, then pitchers like him, or his Philadelphia teammate Aaron Nola, or Corbin Burnes, or Max Fried will absolutely have to be in the conversation someday. It won¡¯t be an easy discussion, but it¡¯s a necessary one.

Speaking of how to evaluate starting pitchers ¡­

Tier 7: What if they win that third Cy Young?

29. Blake Snell (24.5 WAR) ¨C or Jacob deGrom (43 WAR)

Even within the context of today¡¯s lower expectations for innings from starters, it¡¯s difficult to see the talented-yet-inconsistent Snell or the talented-yet-regularly-injured deGrom putting together a case based on the totality of their careers. On the other hand, they may not need to, either. Snell (2018, 2023) has won a pair of Cys, and he¡¯s now on baseball¡¯s best team. deGrom (2018, ¡®19) has a pair of Cys as well, and just may be the most dominating per-batter starter of all time.

Is it that hard to think either could stay healthy and effective for just one more season, and win that third Cy? If they did, they¡¯d enter pretty rarified air, as only 11 pitchers have won three-plus Cy Young awards. Once the Kershaw/Scherzer/Verlander trio all gets into Cooperstown, 10 of the 11 will have made it into the Hall ¨C and the only one who hasn¡¯t, Roger Clemens, missed out for some pretty obvious off-field reasons. Getting that third Cy is essentially a guaranteed ticket to entry.

Speaking of difficult-to-evaluate pitchers ¡­

Tier 8: We¡¯re going to have to include some relievers, aren¡¯t we?

30. Kenley Jansen (24.8 WAR)
31. Aroldis Chapman (23 WAR)
32. Edwin D¨ªaz (13.4 WAR) or Josh Hader (12.2 WAR)

We¡¯ve listed their WAR totals for consistency¡¯s sake, but WAR isn¡¯t how closers get to Cooperstown. (Jansen, at least, might be able to say he¡¯s top-three all-time in saves at the end of the day.) Dominance, and sustained dominance over many years, is how you do it. If you include Craig Kimbrel, who has a very similar case yet may have seen his career end in 2024, we¡¯re looking at the five highest strikeout rates of all time, at least among pitchers with 400 innings. For Jansen and Chapman, we¡¯re well beyond a decade of high-level performance, although Chapman's support will likely suffer due to his 2016 suspension under the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy.

It¡¯s not, really, about their individual cases. It comes down to ¡°do you believe relievers are pitchers, or that relievers are relievers?¡± If you¡¯re comparing these relievers to all pitchers, it¡¯s somewhat hard to make their cases above any number of above-average starters who won¡¯t come near the Hall. If you¡¯re viewing relievers as their own separate position, then it¡¯s difficult to argue that any of the names here aren¡¯t among the best to ever do it.

The key to watch here is Billy Wagner, who is in his final year of eligibility in this cycle. If he makes it in, he could help open the door considerably wider for this group.

Speaking of difficult-to-evaluate positions ¡­

Tier 9: We¡¯re going to have to include some catchers, aren¡¯t we?

33. J.T. Realmuto (34.8 WAR)
34. Salvador Perez (18.3 WAR)

While the recently retired Yadier Molina and Buster Posey are almost certain to get in when they are eligible, we¡¯ve only just begun to wrap our minds around how to (or whether to) include the value of catcher framing, in regards to Russell Martin and Brian McCann. This is part of why we¡¯ve chosen to use FanGraphs WAR (which does include framing) as opposed to Baseball-Reference WAR (which does not), because Perez generally has rated quite poorly in that skill, to the point that his WAR at B-R is nearly double (35.5 WAR) since it excludes the negative framing value.

But catchers are at least a little like relievers in the sense that these cases are never just about WAR; if they were, then Molina, Posey, Martin and McCann would be viewed roughly evenly, as opposed to the truth that Molina¡¯s outsized reputation will likely make him a first-ballot entrant. Realmuto, at least, has an easy case as the best all-around catcher of his generation, even if he¡¯s likely to fall short on the all-time catcher comparison lists. It¡¯s sort of like pitchers: As the demands of the position have changed, you can¡¯t just stop selecting the best players at that position entirely.

Perez¡¯s case, however, is far more complicated. He¡¯s a five-time Gold Glover, but those awards all came in 2018 or earlier and completely fly in the face of modern advanced metrics, mostly because of the dreadful framing. He¡¯s mediocre at getting on base, yet probably ends up with 300 homers, which only seven primary catchers have done. He¡¯s a World Series winner and beloved single-franchise player, which probably shouldn¡¯t matter, but is also a pretty big reason why Molina¡¯s reputation exceeds McCann and Martin¡¯s. He¡¯s also a regular recipient of awards for off-field charity and compassion.

WAR won¡¯t get him there. Will narrative? Perhaps.

Tier 10: The young stars with two or fewer years of service.

35. Elly De La Cruz (8.2 WAR)
36. Jackson Merrill (5.3 WAR)
37. Paul Skenes (4.3 WAR)
38. Jackson Chourio (3.9 WAR)
39. Wyatt Langford (2.9 WAR)

Maybe you prefer Jackson Jobe, or Jasson Dom¨ªnguez, or Dylan Crews, or Junior Caminero, or James Wood. Don¡¯t forget that Yoshinobu Yamamoto counts here, too. We¡¯re not saying any or all of these players will actually make the Hall, but they¡¯ve shown enough in their first year or two to at least point out that they¡¯re off to great starts. It¡¯s not like it was hard to see greatness in just a single year of Acu?a or Soto, anyway.

A decade ago, for comparison¡¯s sake, Arenado and Machado would have made this list on the position player side ¡­ but so would Yasiel Puig and Anthony Rendon. Twenty years ago, you¡¯d have seen Miguel Cabrera here, but also Hank Blalock. Thirty years ago? Mike Piazza, but also Mike Lansing. You get the idea, anyway. There's some signal in the noise. Whether it¡¯s exactly these names or someone like them, there are future Hall of Famers out there right now who have only just gotten things started.

Tier 11: The 2025 rookies, whomever they may be.

40. Travis Bazzana, Roki Sasaki, or someone like them

Consider this a placeholder, for the future legend you haven¡¯t even seen debut yet. Consider this: Between 1990-99, every year aside from 1994 ¨C which of course wasn¡¯t played to completion ¨C had at least one rookie position player who eventually made the Hall. Between 1980-89, every year aside from 1983 and '85 had at least one. In the 1970s, every single year had a rookie future legend.

You may not have thought all that much, for example, of Adrian Beltr¨¦ when he was a below-average hitter in 1998-99, but he was there, and he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It¡¯ll happen this year, too, whether it¡¯s a consensus top prospect like Bazzana or Marcelo Mayer, or someone you haven't even heard of yet.