One month can¡¯t decide a season. But it can make you rethink some things.
It¡¯s been nearly that long since the 2025 campaign began en masse on March 27, and a lot has changed in that time. Several teams that were expected to be top contenders have scuffled out of the gate, while a number of surprising clubs have positioned themselves to shake up races in the coming months.
Below, you¡¯ll find the 10 teams -- the five biggest risers and the five biggest fallers -- whose playoff odds (per FanGraphs) have changed the most since Opening Day. (All stats below, including odds, are through Wednesday.)
BIGGEST RISERS
1. Tigers: +26.1 (46% to 72.1%)
The Tigers entered 2025 looking to build on the surprising late-season surge that earned the club a spot in the ¡¯24 postseason field against all odds and injected new life into an organization that had been stuck in neutral for years. So far, so good. Detroit has started off 15-10, propelled by a pitching staff that leads the American League with a 2.94 ERA. But unlike last year, when the team had to resort to an unconventional pitching strategy -- dubbed ¡°pitching chaos¡± -- to patch things together on days when Tarik Skubal wasn¡¯t starting, the Tigers¡¯ staff is thriving with a more traditional approach in 2025.
Detroit¡¯s rotation has been outstanding, with Skubal and Jack Flaherty forming an excellent one-two punch at the top, highly touted prospect Jackson Jobe showing promise and Casey Mize hinting at an unlikely breakout -- nearly seven years after going first overall in the 2018 MLB Draft. Mize, who had both Tommy John surgery and a back procedure in 2022 and missed the following season, came into ¡¯25 with a 4.36 ERA over 61 career games. But he has looked the part of a former top pick through four starts, recording a 2.22 ERA (with the underlying metrics to back it up).
Amazingly, Mize isn¡¯t the only embattled former No. 1 pick on the Tigers¡¯ roster who appears to be turning a corner. There¡¯s also Spencer Torkelson, who found himself involved in offseason trade rumors and wasn¡¯t guaranteed a spot on Detroit¡¯s roster during Spring Training. Roughly a month after the club broke camp, the top pick from the 2020 Draft has seven homers, 21 RBIs and a .944 OPS and is batting in the middle of the order every day.
2. Mets: +24.7 (62.4% to 87.1%)
Only two members of the Mets¡¯ lineup have an OPS over .800, and $765 million man Juan Soto is not one of them. The club also has had to make due without starters Sean Manaea (right oblique strain) and Frankie Montas (right lat strain), both of whom began the year on the injured list and aren¡¯t particularly close to returning. And yet, the Mets entered Thursday with MLB¡¯s best record (18-7) after extending their winning streak to seven games on Wednesday. They also now have the second-best playoff odds of any team, a result of the Braves and Phillies both underperforming so far.
Despite the aforementioned injuries, New York¡¯s rotation has been a source of stability. With Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning both filling in admirably, Kodai Senga making an impressive return from his own health woes and free-agent addition Clay Holmes smoothly transitioning to a starting role, the club has the lowest ERA -- both among starters (2.33) and overall (2.34) -- in MLB.
Of course, we also need to mention first baseman Pete Alonso, whose highly publicized standoff with the Mets in free agency ultimately ended with him returning to the team on a two-year, $54 million deal. The contract includes an opt-out after 2025, giving Alonso added incentive to have a big year. And, boy, is he ever doing that. Through 25 games, Alonso has produced 18 extra-base hits (six homers), 26 RBIs and a 1.122 OPS, helping to pick up the slack while Soto tries to find his footing.
3. Giants: +22.7 (28.5% to 51.2%)
San Francisco¡¯s rotation has been predictably uneven behind ace Logan Webb, and marquee free-agent addition Willy Adames has yet to make an impact. But none of that has slowed down the Giants, who are right in the thick of things in a stacked NL West.
Jung Hoo Lee, who missed most of his 2024 rookie season while recovering from left shoulder surgery, has been instrumental in the club¡¯s success. He¡¯s tied for seventh in the Majors with 1.4 WAR (per FanGraphs), delivering on the promise the Giants saw when they signed him to a six-year, $113 million deal.
While Lee¡¯s breakout is something San Francisco was counting on at the outset of the season, no one could have seen Wilmer Flores¡¯ surge coming. Long viewed as a steady but unspectacular presence, the 33-year-old has unexpectedly emerged as a crucial part of the Giants¡¯ lineup. Flores has produced an MLB-leading 27 RBIs to go with seven homers -- six of which either tied the game or put San Francisco in the lead.
4. Cubs: +18.4 (48.3% to 66.7%)
Has any offseason addition had a bigger impact so far than Kyle Tucker? Probably not, but let¡¯s not forget about Chicago native Carson Kelly. The Cubs¡¯ move to sign the catcher to a two-year, $11.5 million deal in December barely made a ripple at the time. But Kelly has been a revelation, producing six homers, 18 RBIs, 14 walks and a 1.413 OPS in 54 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, young center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is blossoming before our eyes, proving he¡¯s more than just a defensive wizard. Those three have been big reasons why the Cubs are outscoring everyone so far -- and why they¡¯ve managed to start off 16-10 despite navigating one of MLB¡¯s toughest early-season schedules.
5. Padres: +17.8 (32.9% to 50.7%)
The Padres would have been even higher on the list of risers in the middle of April, but they¡¯ve cooled off a bit after a 14-3 start, going 3-5 in their past eight games. San Diego still has control of first place in the NL West at 17-8, but the Dodgers, Giants and D-backs are all on the Friars' heels, which explains their somewhat tempered playoff odds.
Perhaps no one player is more responsible for the Padres¡¯ early success than Fernando Tatis Jr., whose MVP-caliber start has kept a top-heavy lineup from cratering in the wake of Jackson Merrill¡¯s right hamstring strain. That said, the club¡¯s pitching staff also deserves its share of credit. Even with Yu Darvish out with right elbow inflammation and Dylan Cease pitching to a 6.04 ERA, the Padres have the second-best ERA (2.92) in MLB. That includes a 1.20 ERA over five starts from free-agent addition Nick Pivetta, and an MLB-best 1.76 ERA from San Diego¡¯s vaunted bullpen.
BIGGEST FALLERS
1. Braves: -26.3 (93.4% to 67.1%)
The Braves may have been hoping for a smoother season after injuries spoiled their 2024 campaign, but the baseball gods haven¡¯t obliged. The club lost starter Reynaldo López (right shoulder surgery) and outfielder Jurickson Profar (PED suspension) early on and saw Spencer Strider make just one start in his return from right elbow surgery before going back on the IL with a right hamstring strain. Chris Sale, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, has a 6.17 ERA. All-Star closer Raisel Iglesias? He hasn¡¯t been much better. And only the Royals have had a less productive outfield.
Add it all up and the Braves, who entered this season with serious World Series aspirations, have started out 10-14, putting them 7 1/2 games behind the first-place Mets. But things might be looking up. After going 5-13 over their first 18 games, the Braves swept the Twins and took two of three from the Cardinals. Strider has a low-grade strain, so he might not miss much time. And Ronald Acuña Jr.'s return from a torn ACL in his left knee could be less than a month away. So nobody should be counting out the Braves just yet.
2. Orioles: -22.1 (45% to 22.9%)
When the Orioles failed to replace free-agent departure Corbin Burnes with a comparable starter in the offseason and then lost Grayson Rodriguez to right elbow inflammation in Spring Training (he later suffered a right lat strain while building back up), it was clear the team's rotation could be an issue in 2025. Still, it was hard to imagine things going this poorly. Baltimore¡¯s rotation, which was dealt another blow when Opening Day starter Zach Eflin suffered a right lat strain earlier this month, has posted MLB¡¯s worst ERA at 6.08 through 23 games.
The Orioles¡¯ offense hasn¡¯t done nearly enough to compensate for the struggles of their starting staff, with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg and Tyler O'Neill all performing well below expectations. Accordingly, Baltimore has been outscored by 28 runs en route to a 9-14 record, a disappointing result for a team looking to take the next step after early playoff exits in 2023 and ¡¯24.
3. Twins: -20.8 (55.5% to 34.7%)
Although they went 12-27 down the stretch in 2024 and followed it up with a quiet offseason, the Twins came into ¡¯25 as the AL Central favorites (per FanGraphs¡¯ preseason projections). However, Minnesota currently finds itself in fourth place with a 9-15 record.
With Carlos Correa struggling and Royce Lewis (left hamstring strain) still sidelined, the Twins¡¯ offense has floundered. Minnesota has scored just 3.54 runs per game, putting its middling pitching staff -- which has been without Opening Day starter Pablo López (right hamstring strain) for the past two weeks -- in a tough spot.
4. Royals: -17.4 (42.5% to 25.1%)
Somehow, the Twins don¡¯t even have the worst offense in their division. Neither do the last-place White Sox. Rather, the most anemic lineup in the AL Central -- and all of MLB -- belongs to the Royals, who have scored just 71 runs with 12 homers in 24 games (2.96 runs per game). As a result, a Kansas City team that won 86 games a year ago, leading to its first playoff berth in nearly a decade, has started off 2025 with a 10-14 record.
While superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has done his part with an .853 OPS, every other player who has taken at least one plate appearance for the Royals in 2025 has produced a collective .554 OPS over 769 PAs. The club¡¯s pitching has been solid enough, but there¡¯s only so much the staff can do to make up for the lack of scoring.
5. Rays: -15 (37.7% to 22.7%)
Despite their 2024 Trade Deadline selloff, the Rays came into ¡¯25 with their eyes on a playoff spot, emboldened by the expected return of ace pitcher Shane McClanahan from Tommy John surgery and the potential of some of up-and-coming youngsters such as Junior Caminero. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, it¡¯s been rough sledding so far. McClanahan went down with a nerve irritation in his left forearm before Opening Day, and the club has a 10-14 record on the year, albeit with a +5 run differential.
The Rays have certainly had some hits -- Jonathan Aranda, Kameron Misner, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz, to name four -- but there have been plenty of misses, too. Speedy prospect Chandler Simpson may be able to give the Rays a jolt, but they also need more from some of the more notable holdovers from the 2024 team, including Yandy Díaz, Brandon Lowe, Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley.