Drafting the World Series favorites, from 1 (guess who!) to 30

It¡¯s not officially baseball season until MLB.com¡¯s Mike Petriello and Will Leitch come together to conduct their annual World Series draft.

Every team is included here, from 1 to 30, based only on the question: ¡°Which team is most likely to win it all in 2025?¡± Mike gets first choice this year -- a choice Will used well last year -- and selections will alternate from there.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Petriello: I actually think the narrative of the Dodgers being this unstoppable crushing machine that is predetermined to steamroll everyone on the path to 140 wins and a World Series title ¨C in, somehow, three games ¨C is more than a little overblown. Are the Dodgers a wildly talented outfit of superstars so loaded that they¡¯ve now surpassed ¡°merely being a baseball team¡± and become some sort of internationally known conglomerate? Well, yes.

But also: FanGraphs gives them 23% odds to win the World Series, which means that three out of every four times they run the simulation, someone else wins the ring. We might be overthinking just how dominant a team can be when they are coming off their fewest full-season wins since 2018, and we know well by now that absolutely anything can happen in a short postseason series, lest you forget the D-backs pummeling the 2023 Dodgers right out of the playoffs.

On the other hand, of course I¡¯m picking the Dodgers. Imagine not picking the Dodgers! No one has worked harder to make their roster great.

2. Atlanta Braves
Leitch: How many key players could you subtract from the Braves and have them still make the playoffs? Last year couldn¡¯t have possibly gone worse for the Braves, and even with all that, they finished tied with the Mets before finally limping off the field and collapsing in the NL Wild Card Series.

Not everyone will be ready on Opening Day this year -- neither Ronald Acu?a Jr. nor Spencer Strider will be on the active roster just yet -- but most everyone else will be back, and we are not long removed from this being an ¡°astonishingly good¡± offense. (Your words, Mike!) The pitching looks even better than it did two years ago and in their World Series-winning season; they do not look like they want their bullpen to be caught off-guard again.

I know this is a stacked division, but there¡¯s a reason the Braves were considered the ¡°kings¡± heading into 2024 -- again, your words! Last year¡¯s black swan injury event can¡¯t possibly repeat itself. The Dodgers are No. 1. But the Braves are 1A. And maybe even more than that.

3. Philadelphia Phillies
Petriello: These are the defending division champs, who just won more games than anyone outside the Dodgers, and it somehow feels like they¡¯re being underrated? I think I get why, which is they went down somewhat meekly to the Mets in the NLDS, have an aging core, and are for the most part just running it back with the same group. That¡¯s mostly a problem for future years, though, because for 2025 this core still looks ¡­ really, really good. (No, I don¡¯t care about losing a best-of-five to another good team, so far as it matters for future projections.)

I think adding Jes¨²s Luzardo is one of the most overlooked moves of the winter, because the talent has never been in question ¨C the health has ¨C and with top prospect Andrew Painter coming, their rotation is miles ahead of Atlanta¡¯s or New York¡¯s.

Now: Do I wish they¡¯d improved a relatively weak outfield? Yes. Do I wonder what this team looks like after 2025? Hoo boy, yes. But for 2025 only, they have as good a chance as anyone.

4. New York Mets
Leitch: So we¡¯re four teams in, and here¡¯s our third NL East team. (It will, uh, be a while until the next one.) Suffice it to say, the Mets had themselves a happy offseason, bringing in the top free agent (ever?) in Juan Soto and getting back Pete Alonso on a very reasonable contract. They also shuffled things in their rotation, which involved bringing back Sean Manaea and acquiring Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. (All right, maybe I¡¯m a bit more impressed with the first two parts of that offseason list ¨C Manaea and Montas have already had injury setbacks this spring.)

That their starting pitching feels so wobbly -- there might not be a more important pitcher to any team¡¯s rotation than Kodai Senga -- is the reason I¡¯d pick them third in the division, but that they¡¯re fourth in this draft is a sign of just how high the ceiling is for this team. And how much faith I have that they¡¯ll do whatever it takes to improve the roster as the season goes along. The Mets are going to have to outscore people, I think, and as long as the lineup stays relatively healthy, I believe they¡¯ll be able to.

5. Texas Rangers
Petriello: Yeah, I know. I kind of can¡¯t believe I did this either. First off: I don¡¯t care about last year¡¯s 78-84 record. I¡¯m looking at a 2025 version that¡¯s added Joc Pederson and Jake Burger to the lineup, and also had Wyatt Langford looking for all the world like he figured something out in September ¨C when he won the AL Rookie of the Month and the AL Player of the Month ¨C and should have a lot more Kumar Rocker in the rotation. Oh: And Jacob deGrom is back, and healthy, and while I know as well as you do how little you should rely upon him to stay whole for the entire season, the healthy version of deGrom is the most dominant pitcher in the game on a per-batter basis.

Sure, I don¡¯t fully trust the bullpen. I don¡¯t have a great deal of confidence in Adolis Garc¨ªa to rebound, even before his oblique injury. But I don¡¯t really trust the Astros or Mariners either, and a wide-open AL doesn¡¯t have anything like a superteam. We know with near-certainty that a losing team is going to rebound to make the playoffs. This is who I say it¡¯ll be.

6. Baltimore Orioles
Leitch: Like most Orioles fans, I wish they would have done more to address the rotation. I actually wish they would have addressed a lot of things! But I don¡¯t think we should let last year¡¯s tough second half and postseason disappointment represent anything more than some growing pains for an organization that is still earlier in this particular ¡°contention window¡± than maybe is being appreciated.

The offense still has only two guys over 30, and while I recognize that not all progress is linear, there¡¯s plenty of reason to believe all those young fellers should be even better than they were last year. (Colton Cowser, in particular, has next-Kyle-Tucker vibes.) And that¡¯s not even accounting for Jackson Holliday, who, not long ago, many felt would be the best of all these guys (and is still only 21).

Yes, they probably need another starter. Yes, they should be more aggressive on the free-agent market. Yes, October was very frustrating. But this still looks like the best team in the division to me, with room to grow.

7. Boston Red Sox
Petriello: OK, we¡¯ve both taken AL East teams that aren¡¯t the defending AL champion Yankees, and at least you picked a 2024 playoff club. I picked a team that hasn¡¯t had a winning record since 2021 and seems to have been stuck in neutral most of that time.

But the Red Sox brought in Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Aroldis Chapman this offseason, and they essentially add Liam Hendriks and Lucas Giolito as well after both recovered from injuries that cost them 2024. The dreadful infield defense ought to be considerably improved this year.

Now, consider what happens if they get healthy years from Triston Casas and Trevor Story. Imagine if even a single one of The Big Three of top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer contribute in a meaningful way. This is a tremendously boom-or-bust team, because it¡¯s not hard to see it going wrong (again) and landing in last place in the East. But if it goes right ¡­ there¡¯s real, right-now upside here.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks
Leitch: Juan Soto¡¯s signing was obviously the biggest story of the offseason, but I¡¯m not sure there was a bigger jaw-dropper, or maybe a move with a larger impact, than Corbin Burnes heading to Arizona. The move changes just about everything you can project about the team. They go from having a deep rotation to perhaps the best in the game, which adds to a lineup that loses Christian Walker but has a reasonable replacement in Josh Naylor who may actually have more upside. Add to that Corbin Carroll shaking off a (small) sophomore slump, and you¡¯ve got a team that looks ¡­ stacked?

They¡¯re not catching the Dodgers. But we¡¯ve seen them take out the Dodgers in the playoffs before, just two years ago, and they didn¡¯t have the ace they have now. With these guys and those juggernauts in the NL East, is it possible we already know five of the six NL playoff teams?

9. New York Yankees
Petriello: Look, I guess it¡¯s clear by now that neither one of us is terribly optimistic about the chances of the Yankees returning to the World Series, so let¡¯s do this. While I very much liked their pitching additions this winter ¨C Devin Williams and Max Fried, obviously, but don¡¯t forget Fernando Cruz¡¯s deadly splitter ¨C and I¡¯m cautiously optimistic that Anthony Volpe¡¯s late season swing-hard-in-case-I-hit-it approach is replicable, I¡¯m pretty down on what the post-Soto lineup is going to do.

1. Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt are decent adds, yet at this point in their careers the actual production is likely to be less than the name value would suggest, on both sides of the ball.
2. They almost literally do not have a third baseman.
3. Jasson Dom¨ªnguez has so much to prove.
4. So, too, does Austin Wells, who I am a big believer in, yet who tailed off badly in September and October in his first year ¨C and who now has no safety net without Jose Trevino.
5. You can¡¯t possibly expect more from Aaron Judge, of course; it¡¯s almost a lot to ask just to get him to keep doing what he¡¯s doing.
6. Luis Gil and Giancarlo Stanton are already hurt and ruled out for Opening Day.
7. I¡¯m not convinced the defense will be better, even without Soto and Gleyber Torres.

This team will be good and competitive, of course; I¡¯ve picked them above more than two-thirds of other teams. I just have lots of questions right now.

10. Chicago Cubs
Leitch: I¡¯m iffy about this pick, but I¡¯m iffy about everyone in the NL Central. I¡¯m picking the Cubs more because I think they¡¯re the best team in the division than because I¡¯m particularly blown away by their roster.

If you¡¯re going to trade for Kyle Tucker when he has one season before free agency, well, then logic would dictate that you¡¯d pour everything into that season. Instead, the Cubs traded away Cody Bellinger and their offer to Alex Bregman appeared to fall well short.

The good news for them is that they should still have enough to win the NL Central. That alone makes them a top-10 World Series title contender, even if you¡¯re left frustrated that this team didn¡¯t do more to bolster its position.

11. Minnesota Twins
Petriello: It¡¯s right about here that I get a little less confident and a little more ¡°flip a coin.¡± Having done that, I land on a Twins team that disappointed in 2024 and didn¡¯t do a whole lot to change that this winter, meaning that for yet another season, we¡¯re left hoping this is the one when Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis all stay healthy at the same time.

If that¡¯s not exactly exhilarating, I would agree. And yet: I feel like the quick ascensions of the Tigers and Royals last year leave them a little overrated. I look at the Cleveland offense and rotation and think it¡¯s not possible that they can have another all-time-great bullpen year, knowing I will be proven wrong.

The Twins have a clear path here and there¡¯s more talent than you¡¯d think, particularly in the outfield -- where no one noticed that Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach combined for an .865 OPS in the second half -- as well as in the bullpen, led by the perpetually underrated Griffin Jax and flamethrower Jhoan Duran. I¡¯m not exactly excited by this bunch, but I don¡¯t think they¡¯re again a fourth-place team, either.

12. Detroit Tigers
Leitch: Man, I wish they would have gotten Alex Bregman. That¡¯s the sort of move that signals serious intent, the ole Jayson Werth-to-the-Nats signing -- the one that lets everybody know you¡¯re not messing around. Alas, the Tigers will instead be hoping for Jace Jung to break through at third ¡­ and probably still feeling a bat or two short.

That would be a little concerning for a team whose pitching staff was famously Tarik Skubal and ¡°pitching chaos¡± during its late-season and postseason run, but Jack Flaherty is back, Jackson Jobe may be emerging, and I can dream on that offense if I really have to. After all, every single guy in the starting lineup may be under 30, and that¡¯s not even counting Spencer Torkelson, who I still have not given up on.

Like you, I¡¯m not really sold on anyone in this division, but if you¡¯re going to push me on the AL Central team most likely to win the World Series, I¡¯m probably gonna go with ¡°the one that has fun young hitters and Tarik Skubal.¡±

13. Milwaukee Brewers
Petriello: Every single year we underrate this bunch, and every single year they make us look foolish, and, well, I suppose this year will be no different. ¡°How can they still compete without Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Craig Counsell?¡± we asked last year, and all they did was win 93 games.

¡°How can they compete without Devin Williams and Willy Adames?¡± we¡¯ll ask this year. While it feels like there has to come a point where they can¡¯t keep shedding talented players and continue to post winning records, it might be well past time to give them the benefit of the doubt, especially with looks-like-a-megastar Jackson Chourio blossoming into a potential MVP candidate.

I kind of wish I¡¯d picked them ahead of the Twins, actually.

14. Seattle Mariners
Leitch: I¡¯ve already made the argument that they¡¯re 2025¡¯s Ultimate Bandwagon Fan Team, and part of the reason for that is their fanbase was so obviously primed for a breakthrough two years ago and it just ¡­ hasn¡¯t ¡­ happened ¡­ yet. For all the talk of them trading a starter for a hitter in the offseason, I understand why they didn¡¯t do it: The rotation is what¡¯s keeping these guys afloat, and you don¡¯t want to rob Peter to pay Paul.

What the Mariners need is a full season of a restored Randy Arozarena, one or two other bats to step up and, of course, the MVP season for Julio Rodr¨ªguez we¡¯ve all expected to arrive any minute. If those things happen, this team has the potential to be very dangerous in October.

15. Houston Astros
Petriello: Entering 2024, it was popular to wonder if we were seeing the final year of the Astros Dynasty, given the advancing age and contract status of some of their stars. While that didn¡¯t prevent them from winning the AL West for the seventh consecutive full season, it did also come with their lowest (non-2020) winning percentage since 2016, which was also the last year that Alex Bregman wasn¡¯t their full-time third baseman.

Speaking of which: Bregman is gone now, along with Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander and Ryan Pressly. Jose Altuve might be a left fielder now. It¡¯s a time of extreme transition in Houston, which looks to have a tight three-way competition in the AL West. It¡¯s not over, not with Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Christian Walker, Hunter Brown and Josh Hader, and it won¡¯t be until someone actually comes and takes the division from them. That day feels closer than ever, though.

16. Toronto Blue Jays
Leitch: The Blue Jays, even with some of the multi-year contracts they signed this offseason, still have a bit of a now-or-never vibe heading into this year. Their failure to ink an extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (or Bo Bichette, for that matter) means they definitionally have to be all-in for 2025. That is a risky proposition when you¡¯re playing in the AL East, a division where they just finished last.

But I still think they¡¯ve got a puncher¡¯s chance. Vlad Jr. is gonna have a monster season, particularly with Anthony Santander right behind him, and Max Scherzer may end up as a savvy signing for the rotation. Slick-fielding second baseman Andr¨¦s Gim¨¦nez is an underrated addition, too, and I like what they¡¯ve done with their bullpen.

Is the long-term situation here precarious? Absolutely. But we¡¯re not drafting long-term World Series winners. We¡¯re drafting 2025 World Series winners. The Blue Jays need everything to land just right. But sometimes, it does.

17. San Diego Padres
Petriello: I¡¯m not sure what to make of the Padres. On one hand: they just won 93 games! They came within one game of knocking the Dodgers out of the playoffs! They still have some big, flashy names ¨C Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Michael King, Dylan Cease, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, and talent in the bullpen ¨C and I quite liked adding Nick Pivetta when they did.

It¡¯s just that it took a long time for their offseason to get going, and for all the top-end talent, the bottom third of the lineup is more than a little thin. I think I¡¯d feel better about the rotation, too, if Joe Musgrove wasn¡¯t injured and Yu Darvish wasn¡¯t turning 39 in August.

They¡¯re truly confounding right now. I still may end up picking them to win a Wild Card spot.

18. Cleveland Guardians
Leitch: Hey, I¡¯m getting a defending division champ and ALCS participant with the 18th pick! What a steal! It sure doesn¡¯t feel that way, though. The reason is that, as usual, they didn¡¯t really add much in the offseason. Now, the Guardians would say that¡¯s no reason to be down on them, considering they didn¡¯t add anything last year, either, and they ended up having their best year in a decade. But I dunno.

Jos¨¦ Ram¨ªrez is going to have to do all the heavy lifting on offense again, but the real worry is that rotation, which is either unproven, pedestrian or both. Young pitching has always been the lifeblood of the best Cleveland teams, but the pipeline has gone a little dry lately. I¡¯ll take them this low, but I¡¯m not really a believer. Then again, I wasn¡¯t last year, either.

19. Kansas City Royals
Petriello: Lower than you¡¯d have thought? That might not be wrong. Just about everything went right for the Royals last year, resulting in one of the largest year-to-year win improvements on record, plus a trip to the postseason that included a Wild Card Series win over the Orioles.

A few things, I think, can be true at the same time here. Most importantly: I don¡¯t think they were a fluke, in part because absolutely everyone expected them to be a lot better last year. (Look back at this draft last year, Will. I picked them 22nd and wrote: ¡°I think the Royals are going to be a lot better this year. No, scratch that -- I know they're going to be a lot better this year.¡±) And they were!

So why am I not higher here? I think because last year¡¯s deeply unimpressive outfield hasn¡¯t changed, and because Bobby Witt Jr. had a season so historically good that it¡¯s almost hard to expect an identical repeat. I¡¯ll admit I did like the in-season bullpen improvements, though some of that will be given back if Kris Bubic does rejoin the rotation.

20. Cincinnati Reds
Leitch: Fun fact about Terry Francona: He won two World Series before he ever won his first Manager of the Year Award. He has actually won that award three times now. Could he win another title this year? The Reds are a team that, in recent years, has had a ton of young talent but a seeming inability to put it all together.

You can squint a little and see it happening in 2025. They¡¯ve got an ace in Hunter Greene. They¡¯ve got some young, fascinating pieces who seem ready to pivot into established big leaguers. And perhaps most of all, they have a transcendent star and MVP candidate in Elly De La Cruz, the sort of player who can elevate an entire team. The division is up for grabs, and the Reds are the team that might have the most room to grow. Maybe Francona gets them there.

21. Tampa Bay Rays
Petriello: It¡¯s anyone¡¯s guess how playing in a Minor League stadium ¨C and outdoors, all summer! ¨C will affect this team. Here¡¯s what we know: Only one team allowed fewer runs in the second half last year, and you can pencil in more work from Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, and breakout reliever Edwin Uceta. The pitching might be really good, though moving from the pitcher-friendly Trop to a warmer Yankee Stadium clone might not be a move the arms will welcome.

On the other hand, this is a lineup that outscored only the White Sox in 2024. Adding Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim should help, but it¡¯s really all about whether both Lowes (Josh, Brandon) and the one Morel (Christopher) can rebound to do a lot better. Let¡¯s be real, though: There might not be a young hitter I¡¯m more excited to watch this year than Junior Caminero. If there¡¯s really a breakout coming there, it changes everything.

22. St. Louis Cardinals
Leitch: Only one team picked 20th or lower in this draft had a winning record last year, and that¡¯s the Cardinals. Yet I don¡¯t remember a time since the mid-90s when people were lower on them. You can understand why. They added nothing, nobody, this offseason. But I think this stasis, as well as the fanbase¡¯s frustration with all this, has people maybe a little too down on the Cardinals.

They have a real ace in Sonny Gray, a lights-out closer in Ryan Helsley and a bunch of talented young players they have committed to keeping in the lineup. For all the frustration they went through trying to trade Nolan Arenado, they are a better team with him on the roster. The Cardinals are in an awkward place right now, but I¡¯m not sure it¡¯s as barren around here as the general consensus indicates.

23. Athletics
Petriello: Look, I don¡¯t think the A¡¯s will win the World Series, but I¡¯m more excited to watch this team than I have been in years. Why? They played .500 ball in the second half of 2024, Brent Rooker has established himself as a high-level slugger, and Lawrence Butler¡¯s breakout potentially positions himself as a long-term building block.

But more than that: They actually added pitching for once, with Jeffrey Springs and Luis Severino possibly giving this team a competent rotation ahead of Mason Miller, the most dominant reliever around. There¡¯s a lot of variance here but also at least a sliver of a chance that everything goes right and they go on the kind of run that inspires movies. You think Brad Pitt can play Mark Kotsay this time?

24. San Francisco Giants
Leitch: It¡¯s too early to know for sure what the front office version of the Buster Posey Era will look like, but so far, the vibe seems to be ¡°make it 2012 again by science or magic.¡± It¡¯s an RBIs and veterans world in San Francisco, and while Willy Adames is the sort of guy I¡¯d want on my team, he¡¯s not the guy I want as my team¡¯s best player ¡­ and he might be that guy for the 2025 Giants.

One wonders if this will end up just being a pivot year, Posey getting his feet wet before committing to a larger overhaul. So here¡¯s hoping Justin Verlander is healthy and pitching well enough to be a very fun Trade Deadline acquisition.

25. Pittsburgh Pirates
Petriello: Paul Skenes! I got to pick a team with maybe the best starting pitcher in baseball all the way down at 25th! And also a really fascinating rotation that includes Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney, and soon enough Bubba Chandler! Playing, too, in a wide-open division!

So what¡¯s the catch? Ah, yes: you¡¯ve got to score runs as well as prevent them, and last year the Pirates outscored only six teams, none of which had winning records. It¡¯s not like there¡¯s not hope for improvement, of course; Ke¡¯Bryan Hayes claims he¡¯s healthy, we all want to know what center fielder Oneil Cruz will look like, and so on. It¡¯s just that, given the lack of impact offseason additions, it¡¯s hard to see enough offense here to support what could be a very, very good rotation.

26. Washington Nationals
Leitch: Thought experiment: If the Nationals were in, say, the AL or NL Central, would they be a hipster pick to win either division? This is the sort of laden-with-young-talent roster that gets you salivating in Spring Training, when you can dream on Dylan Crews and James Wood rising to stardom and everything coming together.

Alas, this team is in the NL East, the division that produced three of the top four teams in this draft. We may see progress this year, setting the foundation for the next great Nationals team, but I doubt the record is going to reflect it.

27. Los Angeles Angels
Petriello: I will firmly plant my flag in the ground that there¡¯s one more All-Time Great Mike Trout Season left in there. He is, after all, still only 33 years old, and he¡¯s finally moving to right field. The real question is: What would such a rebound mean? It won¡¯t affect his legacy; he was assured a spot in Cooperstown years ago. It probably won¡¯t make this team, coming off a franchise-most 99 losses, a contender. We¡¯ve seen too many great Mike Trout Years end short of the playoffs, and this one will, too.

28. Colorado Rockies
Leitch: The Rockies are always down here in our annual World Series draft, and I¡¯m not going to (rock) pile on their fans any more than is absolutely necessary. So let¡¯s give them some happy stuff. Ezequiel Tovar is a few more adjustments away from being a star. Michael Toglia and especially Brenton Doyle look like keepers, and they¡¯re both still only 26. Zac Veen and Adael Amador may well be up and ready to go this year, and this Athens, Ga., resident can tell you that once he gets himself settled, Charlie Condon is going to be every Rockies fan¡¯s favorite player. The Rockies¡¯ future looks better than their present.

29. Miami Marlins
Petriello: As usual, this club will have some interesting pitching to watch. In particular, I am very excited to see Sandy Alcantara¡¯s return to the mound, and he¡¯s looking fantastic this spring in his return from Tommy John surgery. (Of course, if he does look great, he may well be pitching somewhere else by August.) More importantly, Baseball Prospectus projects this offense to score the fewest runs in the game. This might be the most anonymous lineup in MLB, and while it¡¯s not without talent, it¡¯s very hard to see how this Marlins team is productive in 2025.

30. Chicago White Sox
Leitch: After 121 losses in 2024, things can only get better in 2025. There are some players to watch here, too. Will Luis Robert Jr. do enough to rebuild his trade value? Can Miguel Vargas, Korey Lee and Colson Montgomery establish themselves as big league regulars? Can Joey Gallo resurrect his career? The White Sox may be a little better this year under new manager Will Venable ¨C but only a little.