The Cy Young Award races are only just beginning. At a time when the Major League leaders have made just four starts thus far, the eventual winners are only about 12-13% of the way toward a trophy-lifting campaign.
Still, we have some early signs of how things are trending -- and some early questions about where they will end up. Here are seven topics we will be keeping a close eye on as these races take shape over the coming weeks and months.
1. Will Paul Skenes join Dwight Gooden?
A year ago, Skenes and Luis Gil became the 27th and 28th starting pitchers to be named Rookie of the Year. Of the previous 26, only one followed up that honor by winning a Cy Young Award the next season. That would be the electrifying Gooden, who did no less in 1985 than post a 1.53 ERA, as well as the highest single-season bWAR by any pitcher in the Live Ball Era (since 1920). Gil sustained a right lat strain before having a chance to make a run at Gooden, but Skenes is looking strong and remains very much in contention.
Early returns: It was downright shocking to see the Cardinals tag Skenes for a career-high five runs (all earned) in an April 8 loss at PNC Park. Skenes bounced right back, though, beating the Nationals on Monday while allowing only four baserunners over six innings. The 22-year-old -- he doesn¡¯t turn 23 until May 29 -- has allowed a mere .169/.204/.225 slash line this season and leads NL qualifiers with a 1.39 FIP. There¡¯s plenty of competition, but Skenes remains the favorite.
2. Will another rookie challenger emerge?
Speaking of Skenes ¡ while he finished well behind Chris Sale in the NL race a year ago, the fact that he even qualified as one of the three finalists was impressive enough. Dodgers legend Fernando Valenzuela (1981) remains the only rookie winner of the award, and Skenes is now one of just four other rookies to place in the top three, per the Elias Sports Bureau, after Mark Fidrych (1976 Tigers), Gooden (1984 Mets) and Jos¨¦ Fern¨¢ndez (2013 Marlins).
Early returns: All eyes have been on 23-year-old Dodgers phenom Roki Sasaki, who has flashed promise but also looked very much like a work in progress, walking 13 batters over 13 2/3 innings. Instead, the most impressive rookie starter so far was the Rangers¡¯ Jack Leiter, at least until he landed on the 15-day IL with a blister issue after two excellent starts. MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 4 prospect, the Tigers¡¯ Jackson Jobe, also has been tough to hit through his first three starts, even while not missing many bats.
Of course, Skenes didn¡¯t debut until May 11 a year ago, so it¡¯s also possible that the top rookie pitcher of 2025 is still in the Minors right now.
3. Will the Three Cys Club get a 12th member?
Twenty-two pitchers have won multiple Cy Young Awards, and only half of those have won three or more. It¡¯s an exclusive and impressive group. Randy Johnson (five), Steve Carlton (four), Greg Maddux (four), Sandy Koufax (three), Pedro Martinez (three), Jim Palmer (three) and Tom Seaver (three) are inner-circle Hall of Famers. Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander (three apiece) just need to retire and wait five years to join them. (The 11th, Roger Clemens, won seven times and is not in Cooperstown for reasons having nothing to do with his pitching record.)
Early returns: There are two active pitchers who already have banked two Cys. The Dodgers¡¯ Blake Snell is now on the injured list with left shoulder inflammation after making two starts, but the Rangers¡¯ Jacob deGrom has, at long last, been healthy thus far. The question is whether he is still a Cy-caliber ace. The 36-year-old walked four and allowed three runs in four innings his last time out, raising his ERA to 4.30 and prompting this self-assessment: ¡°Didn¡¯t do anything well.¡± There is still plenty of time to right the ship, though.
4. Will a new face dominate in a new place?
There have been 15 times in Cy Young history when the award went to a pitcher in his first year after changing teams, either via free agency or trade. However, there was a 13-season drought in that department until 2024, when Sale was traded from the Red Sox to the Braves before storming his way to the NL Cy in his Atlanta debut. While so much of the offseason attention was directed toward position players on the move -- Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, to name two -- there also are plenty of pitchers in new uniforms in 2025 with the ability to chase some individual hardware.
Early returns: Corbin Burnes still may claw his way into this discussion, but it¡¯s been a bit of a rough transition to Arizona thus far for the 2021 NL Cy winner (5.87 ERA in three starts). Things have looked more promising early on for Boston¡¯s Garrett Crochet (1.38 ERA), who dazzled against his former team on Sunday while taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Max Fried (1.88 ERA) also has been a seamless fit in the Bronx, having struck out 18 over 13 2/3 innings in his past two starts. While those are the most accomplished names on this list, Philadelphia¡¯s Jesús Luzardo (1.50 ERA entering Tuesday¡¯s start), San Diego¡¯s Nick Pivetta (1.59 ERA) and Cincinnati¡¯s Brady Singer (3.18 ERA) also are looking good early.
5. Will someone¡¯s long wait be over?
When Sale won last year, it felt long overdue. Prior to a wave of injuries that arrived in his early 30s, Sale had a seven-season stretch from 2012-18 when he finished in the top six in AL Cy voting every time without ever winning. It was a similar situation for the Yankees¡¯ Gerrit Cole in 2023, when he won after previously finishing second twice and in the top five three other times. While Cy Young Awards aren¡¯t necessarily the only measurement of a pitcher¡¯s career -- Nolan Ryan is among those to never grab one -- it does feel like a fitting accomplishment for the best to ever take the mound.
Early returns: There are plenty of notable active pitchers without a Cy, but if we focus on those with the lengthiest and most successful careers, the list gets a lot shorter. The Phillies¡¯ Zack Wheeler is the most obvious name here, having finished as the NL runner-up in two of the past four seasons, including 2024. The 34-year-old has a slightly inflated 4.07 ERA through four starts, but with 28 strikeouts and six walks in 24 1/3 innings, there is little reason to think Wheeler can¡¯t be in the mix yet again. Phillies teammate Aaron Nola, the Blue Jays¡¯ Kevin Gausman, the Cardinals¡¯ Sonny Gray, the Mariners¡¯ Luis Castillo and the Giants¡¯ Logan Webb are some other names to watch.
6. Will we have a back-to-back winner?
Between the ever-present threat of injury and the vagaries of luck, it¡¯s a monumental challenge to author two Cy-caliber seasons in a row -- and that¡¯s not even accounting for some other pitcher¡¯s spectacular season messing with your plans. A year ago, reigning Cy winners Cole and Snell managed to make only 37 starts, combined. In fact, we¡¯ve gone five straight seasons without anyone pulling off a repeat since deGrom did it in 2018-19. deGrom is also the most recent winner to even finish in the top three the next year, and that came in the shortened 2020 season.
Early returns: This always figured to be a tough task for Sale, who is 36 and coming off his first full season in several years. And sure enough, he has struggled early (6.63 ERA) while facing questions about diminished velocity. The situation looks much more promising for the Tigers¡¯ Tarik Skubal. If the lefty¡¯s first two outings (10 2/3 innings, seven earned runs) invited any skepticism, his next two should put those feelings to rest. After shutting down the Brewers on Monday, Skubal now has 13 scoreless innings, with zero walks and 15 strikeouts, over those past two starts.
7. Will another first-time winner complete a rapid rise?
Skubal hardly came out of nowhere in 2024. Although his ascent was delayed by injuries, his spectacular second half in 2023 opened plenty of eyes and made him a trendy pick heading into last season. Nonetheless, Skubal had not received a single Cy Young vote prior to winning the AL award unanimously. So are there other pitchers who could follow a similar path one year later? Yes, indeed. But keep in mind that up-and-comers such as Logan Gilbert (Mariners), Hunter Greene (Reds), Michael King (Padres) and Cole Ragans (Royals) did receive votes in 2024, so they do not fall into this specific category.
Early returns: We already covered Crochet above, and he could fit the bill here as well -- his modest total of 146 innings a year ago kept him off ballots despite his tremendous effectiveness. Luzardo is another previously mentioned name of interest. The Dodgers¡¯ Yoshinobu Yamamoto has looked tremendous so far (1.23 ERA, 33.7% K-rate), but he shouldn¡¯t really qualify, considering he was a three-time winner of the Sawamura Award, the equivalent to the Cy Young in Japan's NPB.
There are a number of other young pitchers who meet our criteria and are off to solid or even great starts, but the most similar to Skubal is perhaps the Nationals¡¯ MacKenzie Gore, who has a 32-to-6 K-to-BB ratio across his first 23 innings. Other names to watch include the Braves¡¯ Spencer Schwellenbach, the Astros¡¯ Hunter Brown, the Brewers¡¯ Freddy Peralta, the Royals¡¯ Kris Bubic, the Mariners¡¯ Bryan Woo and the Rays¡¯ Shane Baz.