SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Projections for the Rockies are historically foreboding -- 60 (60!) wins in 2021, according to Baseball Prospectus¡¯ PECOTA system -- and there are legitimate reasons behind the math. But math does not equal gospel, and Rockies manager Bud Black is under no obligation to worship.

Of course, it¡¯s Spring Training, and even in a pandemic it's an optimistic time. But Black has more than dreams. Twice in his four years in Colorado, Black¡¯s club hit upon a pitching-based formula for making the postseason -- proving that math is not gospel, and often, it doesn¡¯t equal science.

In 2017, PECOTA said 76 wins. The Rockies won 87 for a National League Wild Card berth. In 2018, PECOTA called for 78. The Rockies won 91 before losing to the Dodgers in a 163rd game for the NL West title. None of this is to pick on PECOTA, by the way; with an inadequately accounted-for Coors Field factor, the math rarely breaks the Rockies¡¯ way.

Both years, the postseason path was the same. And though it may be dusty from fourth-place division finishes the past two years, it¡¯s still there for the 2021 Rockies.

This paragraph is coming way too late for folks who read the headline and reflexively snarked, but there is a caveat: Those two teams had DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado. Still ¡­

Forty-six teams have qualified for the postseason the past four years. Excluding the 16 that made the expanded 2020 tournament after a shortened season, the two playoff teams with the lowest OPS+ -- with 100 being the MLB average -- were the ¡¯17 and ¡¯18 Rockies, at 90.

Granted, the ¡¯21 Rockies need multiple position players to turn potential into production to even reach the 90s in team OPS+. But it doesn¡¯t change the fact that the Rockies didn¡¯t bludgeon opposing pitching in ¡¯17 and ¡¯18. How did they win?

? Starting pitching: Starters were durable. In average innings pitched per game started, the Rockies finished ninth (5.7) in ¡¯18 and tied for 14th (5.5) in ¡¯17 among the aforementioned 46 postseason qualifiers. Germ¨¢n M¨¢rquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Jon Gray pitched then and are still with the Rockies.

? Finishing pitching: Greg Holland in ¡¯17 and Wade Davis in ¡¯18 led the National League in saves.

? Pitching in between: Deadline trades that brought Pat Neshek in ¡¯17 and Seunghwan Oh in ¡¯18 added to the number of quality lead-protecting relievers.

This was especially true in ¡¯18. Beginning with Oh¡¯s July 28 Rockies debut, Oh, Adam Ottavino, Mike Dunn and Scott Oberg (who is still around) held opposing hitters below a .200 batting average.

Black has proven that if he has enough relievers who pitch well for the majority of their 55-70 appearances, he can juggle them.

¡°I would like to think that if you have confidence on a given night with five or six guys who have been throwing the ball well, that¡¯s a pretty good number,¡± he said.

Dig into today¡¯s bullpen. With 100 being MLB average in ERA+, Oberg, Daniel Bard, Mychal Givens, Carlos Est¨¦vez, Jairo D¨ªaz and Yency Almonte have had above-average seasons. But with Oberg coming off injury, and Est¨¦vez, D¨ªaz and Almonte not having had their big years with the team in contention, it¡¯s fair to question the bullpen.

¡°It may be cherry-picking to say, ¡®Wow, this guy was really good at one point in his career,¡¯¡± right fielder Charlie Blackmon said. ¡°But a lot of guys have the ability to do that consistently that haven¡¯t done it yet.¡±

? Blackmon: 'I want to win'

Among current starters, M¨¢rquez, Freeland, Gray and Senzatela have all had above-average ERA+ seasons, with bests ranging from 138 to 166.

¡°We're at a point now with this group of starting pitchers where they're in their mid 20s, they've been through big-league seasons, they've been near or around or above 200 innings before,¡± Black said.

Lefty Austin Gomber, acquired in the Arenado trade with the Cardinals, had a 234 ERA+ last season on a playoff team, granted mostly out of the bullpen.

Can healthy starters -- even with the proven crew, depth is a question -- and dependable relievers who pitch well for most of their appearances be the difference for a team with many unproven offensive performers?

¡°It can be,¡± Black said. ¡°And that¡¯s based on what I¡¯ve seen in the past, from the track record of guys in that clubhouse.¡±

Black is putting those guys, and his ability to manage them, up against the lowly projections.

It¡¯s not the first time.