Musgrove set to return: What that means for Padres' rotation

PITTSBURGH -- The Padres’ rotation could get a major boost in Miami this weekend -- and, considering the schedule, not a moment too soon.

There is a “high probability” right-hander Joe Musgrove will be activated from the injured list, manager Mike Shildt said Tuesday, as the Padres began a grueling stretch of 27 games in 28 days with their series opener at PNC Park.

Shildt did not specify on which day Musgrove would pitch, and he acknowledged that the veteran starter would likely be on a strict pitch count. Still, Musgrove’s right elbow inflammation has subsided, and he was sharp enough in a rehab outing Sunday that the Padres are looking ahead to his return.

“I felt like I had a good feel for everything [Sunday], and I’m recovering good,” said Musgrove, who rejoined the team in Pittsburgh. “I feel great today, so I physically feel ready.”

How built up is Musgrove?
He has not pitched since May 26 because of inflammation in his right elbow. This is Musgrove’s second stint on the IL this season with the same issue. The first stint was significantly shorter, and ultimately wasn’t long enough for the injury to fully heal.

While on the IL for the second time, Musgrove was diagnosed with a bone spur, and he received a PRP injection in addition to a prior cortisone shot. He was shut down from throwing for about a month, and he says the elbow hasn’t bothered him since he resumed throwing.

Musgrove faced hitters in a simulated-game setting last week in Arizona, then made a rehab start for Single-A Lake Elsinore in Fresno, Calif., on Sunday. (He was initially scheduled to pitch with Double-A San Antonio, but his flight was canceled, and the Padres called a late audible.) Musgrove allowed two runs over 3 1/3 innings on only 43 pitches.

“A lot of strikes, commanded just about everything, 'velo' is in a really good spot,” Musgrove said. “Body feels good coming out of it.”

What to expect?
If the radar gun in Fresno is to be believed, Musgrove’s velocity is in a good spot, indeed. His fastball was clocked at 96 mph there -- which would be the hardest pitch he’s thrown all season.

“Felt good coming out of my hand,” Musgrove said with a smile. “I don’t know if it was 96.”

Either way, a healthy Musgrove could go a long way. He’s posted a 5.66 ERA in 10 starts this season, but he was one of the best pitchers in the sport across his first three seasons with the Padres, notching a 3.05 mark in 79 outings.

In his first game back, Musgrove would likely be limited to four to five innings and around 60 pitches, and he’d continue to progress from there -- adding another inning and 15 pitches per start. It’s not ideal, but the Padres would clearly rather have Musgrove than not.

What does this mean for the Padres' rotation?
It’s possible Shildt would opt for a six-man rotation, but he indicated it’s likelier the team would pare down to five. That could mean Randy Vásquez gives way, though that decision doesn’t need to be made imminently.

The wealth of options is a welcome dilemma for the Padres, who spent most of July with a four-man rotation. There’s still no clarity regarding the status of Yu Darvish, who is on the restricted list while he tends to a personal family matter. But Martín Pérez arrived at the Trade Deadline, and Musgrove should join him in the rotation soon.

The additions come just in time, with a grueling August schedule. If the Padres need to use a temporary six-man rotation to give their current starters a breather, they at least have the option to do so.

“Any time you get Joe back, it’s helpful,” Shildt said. “But we are going on a string of a lot of games -- 27 out of 28. We’ll take ‘em one at a time, but when you get those innings back … the more healthy arms you have at this time of year is always beneficial.”