Dodgers vs. Padres - who will reign supreme?
Though the National League West race is expected to be contested by just two teams -- the Padres and Dodgers -- this could be one of the best showdowns in baseball in 2021. Who will win it? We gathered a group of MLB.com experts to discuss.
Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter, moderator): Let¡¯s start with this. Is the NL West division race the best one in baseball right now?
Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand, executive reporter): It¡¯s definitely the best two-team race, but it¡¯s also the most top-heavy division in the game.
The Dodgers and Padres are going to provide some great baseball, but this reminds me of those years in the AL East when the Yankees and Red Sox battled each other all season while beating up on the three other teams to pad their records.
AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell, Padres beat reporter): I'd call it the best division race, because it's the most impactful. I mean, these are two teams with legit 100-win, title aspirations and one of them is going to play for the Wild Card. Some other divisions are four to five deep in terms of division title contenders. But how many have two actual World Series favorites? Only this one, in my opinion.
Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio, Dodgers beat reporter): If you're looking at it as an entire division, no. The Rockies are still going to be part of the division. But the two-team race between the Dodgers and Padres will produce the most wins in baseball and by far the most excitement.
Bill Ladson (@ladsonbill24, MLB.com reporter): I would say yes. I know everybody is talking about the NL East, but I think the Dodgers and the Padres make the division the best, and they are above the rest of the league.
Cassavell: If you're asking me, this is what a division race should look like. Two teams trying to one-up each other all offseason, building elite rosters, then settling it on the field.
Ladson: I think the National League pennant will come out of the NL West.
Feinsand: The Dodgers and Padres will be two of the best teams in MLB. But the NL East could be a legitimate four- or five-team race, the AL East could be a three-team race. The fact that both L.A. and S.D. are likely to have 90-100 wins and should both make the playoffs could take a little air out of September.
To AJ¡¯s earlier comment, I would say the NL East has also at least two legit World Series contenders.
Cassavell: That's probably fair. The AL East might, too. But which division has the best chance at producing a World Series champ? I think it's easily this one.
Feinsand: That said, Dodgers-Padres has a chance to be the best division rivalry this century since the height of Yankees-Red Sox. Lots of stars, big names, geographic proximity. It has it all.
Cassavell: It's certainly got the bad blood for it!
Toribio: Would anyone really be surprised if both the Dodgers and Padres win 99-100 games? I don't think you can say that in any other division.
Feinsand: No, but at the same time, would anybody be surprised if the Braves and Mets ended up in the NLCS?
Part of the reason I think both teams will have 95-plus wins is that the rest of the NL West isn¡¯t very good. With 57 games each against the Giants, Rockies and D-backs, each team could win 45 games right there. If you win 45 of those 57, you only need to play .500 ball against everyone else to win 95.
Footer: Both rotations are loaded. When I look at them side by side, I feel like the Dodgers have more stability -- Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and Walker Buehler at the top, a veteran presence in David Price, and a good chance we¡¯ll see real breakout years from Julio Urías and possibly Dustin May. The Padres are loaded as well, but they have more of a ¡°if they stay healthy¡± vibe. So this seems like a slightly uneven matchup in favor of the Dodgers. Agree? Disagree?
Feinsand: The Dodgers potentially have one of the best rotations we¡¯ve seen in years. The Padres¡¯ staff is less certain, but it has just as much potential. Both teams are stacked.
Ladson: The Dodgers are not only the best team in the NL West. They are the best in baseball. Look at L.A.¡¯s roster: Acquiring Bauer makes them invincible on the mound.
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Feinsand: The additions of Blake Snell and Yu Darvish were huge.
Cassavell: The health status of Dinelson Lamet looms over all of this. If his elbow barks again, the Padres' rotation is clearly behind the Dodgers'. But that's a yes-or-no question. If Lamet's healthy, this Padres rotation seems every bit as good -- and potentially as deep, with MacKenzie Gore, the sport's top pitching prospect, as their No. 6 right now.
Dinelson Lamet is really, really good, you guys.
Feinsand: Here¡¯s the thing about the Dodgers: They¡¯re awesome. But awesome teams don¡¯t always win the World Series. They finally broke through last year, but they were awesome in the six to seven years before that, too. The Yankees used to roll out Clemens-Mussina-Pettitte-Duque-Wells in the early 2000s and get bounced from the playoffs. The Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz Braves teams won one World Series. Stuff happens, no matter how good you are.
Toribio: I agree with AJ. I think a lot of it depends on Lamet and just the overall development of Chris Paddack and Gore. But I actually think Snell is going to be the key for the Padres. I got to see him every fifth day in 2018 with the Rays, and I've never seen a more dominant run than that. If the Padres get that pitcher -- or anything close to it -- they have a chance.
But then again, the Dodgers could have May and Tony Gonsolin coming out of the bullpen because there's no room for them in the rotation, and that's just pretty unfair.
Feinsand: I also think both teams will make the necessary adjustments in July. If the Padres need a reliever, A.J. Preller will add at the Trade Deadline, just like he did last year.
Ladson: Do you think Ur¨ªas is a closer or a starter? I was impressed with what he did in the World Series.
Toribio: Ur¨ªas will get a chance to start, but he's going to be in that super-reliever role in the postseason. I've joked about this, but the Dodgers are so good that they have the option of having Ur¨ªas or Price just come in and get a tough lefty in like the sixth inning.
The Dodgers' bullpen all depends on which Kenley Jansen they get.
Ladson: I think it's obvious Jansen has run out of gas from pitching so many innings. That's why I'm impressed with Ur¨ªas.
Feinsand: I thought the Dodgers¡¯ acquisitions of Corey Knebel and Blake Treinen were just as important as the Bauer signing.
Cassavell: Let's not write off the Padres' bullpen. It's very good, and projects better than the Dodgers' in several places.
Footer: I¡¯m going to keep bringing up this tweet from our colleague Andrew Simon, because it¡¯s awesome: ¡°The Dodgers and Padres now combine for 3 of last year¡¯s top 4 NL MVP finishers AND 3 of last year¡¯s top CYA finishers. Should be some race.¡±
That seems like a good segue to talk about Fernando Tatis Jr. for a bit. He'll have his first 162-game season this year. What can we expect from him?
Feinsand: That he will be a consensus Top 3 player in all of MLB. He¡¯s incredible. I¡¯m jealous that AJ gets to watch him every day.
Toribio: I'll get to watch Mookie Betts every night, but even I'm jealous that AJ gets to watch Tatis.
Cassavell: He's relentless. I don't think I've ever seen anyone bring so much joy to the ballpark every day. Heck, he even went and played a few games of Winter Ball in the Dominican Republic, just because he wanted to play. I think we're going to see a five-tool MVP-caliber shortstop who just keeps getting better.
Feinsand: I¡¯m also as big a Manny Machado fan as you¡¯ll find. Those two guys on the left side of the infield are so much fun.
Ladson: Outside of Betts, Tatis is the most exciting player in baseball. I think Tatis will have a great year and win a Gold Glove.
Cassavell: And let's not forget what Machado does to Bauer! (10-for-17, four homers, two doubles.)
Feinsand: I also have to wonder just how hungry the Dodgers will be. The year after winning a title can be tricky for some teams; players don¡¯t have that same intensity and hunger, which is why we haven¡¯t seen a back-to-back champion since the Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. The Padres will not lack hunger, that¡¯s for sure.
That¡¯s another reason why I love the Bauer signing. He will most certainly bring that hunger with him to L.A.
Toribio: The Dodgers are going to be hungry. And I think the Padres' offseason is a big reason why.
Feinsand: I think you¡¯re right, Juan. Knowing that the team behind you is making a big push to take you down is motivating. The fact that it¡¯s a team these guys truly don¡¯t like can be even more so.
Cassavell: Honestly guys, I think that's the difference in this race. On paper, this Dodgers¡¯ roster looks a teeny-tiny bit better. But man, the Padres were not happy with how their season ended last year, and they're not going away any time soon. If the Dodgers don't match that intensity, it's the Padres' division.
Ladson: I'm not worried about the Dodgers. It's the Dodgers and everybody else.
Footer: Let's rank the teams -- who has the better offense?
Feinsand: I think the Padres have two of the three best players in the division, but the Dodgers are still a deeper team. Top to bottom, they get the slight edge here.
Toribio: You could¡¯ve made an argument for the Padres about four days ago, but the Dodgers bringing back Justin Turner easily gives them the best and deepest lineup in the Majors.
Ladson: The Dodgers. Yes, they lost players like Joc Pederson, but they still have enough fire power on offense to go far in the postseason. Betts is the best in baseball. I love Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager. They also have the best manager in baseball in Dave Roberts.
Cassavell: The Padres have every ounce of the depth the Dodgers have had for years, with the signings of Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar. It's really an elite group of role players -- Jake Cronenworth, Austin Nola, etc. Throw that depth behind superstars like Tatis and Machado, and give me the Padres' offense over any in baseball right now.
Toribio: Will Smith is the key, in my opinion. If he keeps hitting like this, nobody is beating the Dodgers. Max Muncy had a down year last year, but he showed what he can do in the postseason.
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Footer: Best rotation?
Feinsand: The Dodgers have to get the rotation nod. Adding Bauer made a great staff even greater. But I do love the Padres¡¯ rotation, especially if Lamet is healthy.
Cassavell: I need to see a fully healthy Lamet, and I need to see a fixed Paddack before I pick the Padres' rotation. I'll go Dodgers with a slight edge there -- for now.
Toribio: I love what the Padres did this offseason, but May and Gonsolin can't even crack the rotation. That's absurd. It's the Dodgers.
Ladson: The Dodgers, no doubt in mind. Don¡¯t forget that Price is back with the team. Kershaw isn't the No. 1 starter anymore, and that's a good thing.
Footer: Bullpen?
Feinsand: I thought the Dodgers had a slight edge with the addition of Knebel and Treinen, but I loved the Padres¡¯ signings of Mark Melancon and Keone Kela. We also don¡¯t know what Jansen will look like in 2021. This one might be too close to call right now. I¡¯d say it¡¯s a toss-up.
Ladson: The Dodgers. Again, no doubt in my mind. I don¡¯t care if the Padres acquired Melancon or Kela. I¡¯m telling you: Melancon is hittable. He is not the dominant reliever he was with the Pirates. Kela is injury prone. As far as the Dodgers are concerned, yes, Jansen is past his prime, but they have firepower in Treinen and Ur¨ªas. I love Joe Kelly, too.
Losing Dylan Floro in a trade to the Marlins may hurt, but Tommy Kahnle could step up if he returns from Tommy John surgery. He showed how valuable he could be with the Yankees in 2017 and ¡¯19. When you have a manager like Roberts, I don¡¯t expect the bullpen to underperform.
Cassavell: A week ago, I would¡¯ve said these bullpens were dead even. But those recent moves have shifted things in the Padres¡¯ favor. The group they already had was underrated. Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagán are very good, and now they¡¯ve added Melancon and Kela to that mix. That¡¯s four relievers who have spent time as closers in the past. Behind those four, the Padres have 12 big league caliber arms fighting for four spots. Look for 21-year-old Adrian Morejon to play an important role on this pitching staff. His stuff is ridiculously good.
Toribio: I agree with Mark, and I'll actually give the Padres the edge now that the Dodgers traded away Adam Kolarek to Oakland. Victor González is a good replacement, but they need another lefty.
Footer: Let's wrap with division standing predictions. Rank 'em 1-5. Go!
Toribio: 1. Dodgers 2. Padres 3. Giants 4. D-backs ... 5. Rockies
Ladson: 1. Dodgers 2. Padres 3. Giants 4. D-Backs and 5. Rockies. ¡ Back-to-back World Series titles for the Dodgers.
Cassavell: T1. Padres T1. Dodgers 3. D-backs 4. Giants 5. Rockies
Give me the Padres in a one-game playoff between 100-game winners.
Feinsand: 1. Padres 2. Dodgers 3. Giants 4. Rockies 5. Dbacks. ¡ It¡¯s Slam Diego¡¯s year!