4 scenarios for Brewers' NLDS G3 starter
Zachary Silver
@zachsilverMILWAUKEE -- Two of their Big Three have come and gone this postseason, and the Brewers can be nothing but pleased with the results from right-handers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, each of whom threw a quality start in the first two games of the National League Division Series.
But who might Milwaukee turn to next, with the series tied at 1 after Saturday¡¯s 3-0 loss to the Braves in Game 2 at American Family Field? Manager Craig Counsell opted against immediately naming his starter for Monday¡¯s Game 3 in Atlanta, though the wide assumption has been that the last of the Big Three -- right-hander Freddy Peralta -- would get the nod.
No matter the decision, Milwaukee remains steadfast in both its depth and its quality of arms -- a luxury available to the Brewers in postseasons past.
¡°[We have to] win two more games, we knew it was going to be a tough series,¡± Crew outfielder Christian Yelich said. ¡°You don't go into these assuming there's going to be a sweep.¡±
In order to win two, the Brewers would benefit in winning Game 3. In best-of-five series in the 2-2-1 format, the team that wins Game 3 when the series is tied has gone on to win the series 72 percent of the time (39 of 54).
And Milwaukee has several starting options for it.
1) RHP Freddy Peralta
Why it makes sense: Conventional wisdom would be to start Peralta, an All-Star whose 2.81 ERA was tied for seventh best in the Majors this season (minimum 140 innings). Through all their creativity, the Brewers have employed a traditional five- or six-man rotation on a routine basis this season.
Working in Peralta¡¯s favor even more is the skill set he brings against the Braves. He¡¯s adept at limiting the long ball, allowing only 14 homers this season, and ranks in the top 10 with a 2.3 percent home run rate since the start of 2020 (minimum 170 innings).
Atlanta is a homer-happy team that scored 48.2 percent of its runs this season via the long ball (fourth in MLB). The Braves also whiff a lot and hit many balls hard. Peralta is a master in exploiting each of those offensive tendencies as he ranks in the 92nd percentile in both whiff and hard-hit rates.
Why there are flaws: Peralta has had an uneven second half, pitching around a right shoulder injury that forced him to build back up to a starter¡¯s workload. After being named an All-Star, he had a 3.69 ERA in 10 starts. He also allowed multiple runs in six of his last seven outings, giving up seven runs across his final two outings.
Milwaukee has held firm that Peralta has fully recovered from his shoulder issues, and the right-hander was in the bullpen warming up for a possible appearance in Friday's Game 1 win. A start on Monday would be the first of his postseason career and only his second appearance in front of a postseason crowd.
2) LHP Eric Lauer
Why it makes sense: By going with Lauer, the Brewers would give the Braves their first look at a left-handed starter this series. Such a move could incite a lineup change from Atlanta, albeit one of modest proportions.
Lauer had an unheralded regular season, posting a 3.19 ERA in 24 games (20 starts). He had a 1.82 ERA over a span of nine starts, before a rough outing against the Dodgers to end the season (five runs allowed in five innings).
Lauer does not have extreme platoon splits (.641 OPS against righties this year, .635 vs. lefties) and does not have an extensive history against Atlanta. His only career appearance against the Braves was a three-inning relief outing on May 14.
Might Lauer be an opening (or following) act for Peralta to get the Braves off rhythm?
Why there are flaws: The Braves don't have extreme platoon splits, either. Left-handed-hitting Freddie Freeman, the reigning NL MVP Award winner, can hit both lefties and righties. Switch-hitter Ozzie Albies, who laced an RBI double from the left side on Saturday, has far better numbers as a right-handed hitter, both for his career and in 2021. And Lauer, unlike Peralta, has been bitten far worse by the long ball, giving up 16 homers in 118 2/3 innings this year.
Eddie Rosario (who is 2-for-7 in this series) and Joc Pederson (who is 2-for-2 with a homer as a pinch-hitter) are Atlanta¡¯s remaining left-handed-hitting options, neither of whom is the caliber of hitter you typically build a pitching strategy around. In theory, the Braves could start Guillermo Heredia (a right-handed hitter) instead of Rosario in the outfield, but such a change would not move the needle. As such, starting Lauer would not do much to force Atlanta manager Brian Snitker¡¯s hand in changing his lineup.
3) RHP Adrian Houser
Why it makes sense: Houser is a ground-ball pitcher, a sinkerballer who can dominate an Atlanta lineup with a penchant for the home run. He¡¯s been right behind Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta this season with a 3.22 ERA, having a career year at 28 years old. Houser is the closest to a wild card the Brewers possess this season.
Why there are flaws: A traditional bona fide starter, Houser has already pitched in this series, allowing one run in two innings in relief in Game 1, so he would be starting Game 3 on three days of rest. Granted, he needed only 26 pitches in Game 1, but the Brewers have acknowledged he was pitching a bit out of his element in doing so.
4) Something untraditional
Why it makes sense: The Brewers have long lauded their pitching staff as ¡°out-getters,¡± not straying so far as to employ an opener, but showing a flexibility to use their high-leverage arms in less traditional spots. To that end, might something of a creative nature be in the works?
It is the postseason, after all, and you try and do anything you can to stake yourself to an advantage. It¡¯s often hard to fathom such a departure from norms in the biggest game of the season, but Milwaukee has been toward the forefront of being creative in starting plans.
Why there are flaws: The Brewers tried to juke the Dodgers in Game 5 of the 2018 NL Championship Series, starting left-hander Wade Miley with the sole intention of removing him after one batter to alter Los Angeles¡¯ lineup and turning to Woodruff as a bulk pitcher.
It worked to a modest extent, as the Crew got a matchup it wanted and forced the Dodgers to remove the right-handed-hitting David Freese by the fourth inning after bringing in Woodruff. But Los Angeles took that game, 5-2, and won the series in seven games, despite Miley helping pitch the Brewers to victory in Game 6.
It would probably behoove Milwaukee to stick with what led it to the NL Central crown and the NLDS in the first place.