Marlins excited for Alcantara's return ... and why not?
This story was excerpted from the Marlins Beat newsletter, written this week by Paul Casella. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
Needless to say, Marlins fans are eager to see Sandy Alcantara back on the mound in 2025.
And who can blame them?
The 2022 National League Cy Young Award winner is not only one of the best pitchers in baseball, but before he underwent Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the '24 season, Alcantara had begun to cement himself as one of the best pitchers in franchise history.
A fully healthy Alcantara is set to return to the hill, where he hopes to continue climbing some of the Marlins' franchise leaderboards. He already ranks among some of the club's greats in most categories -- and he's primed to pass some big names in 2025.
Obviously, returning from Tommy John surgery is no easy task, and it's possible the Marlins could limit Alcantara's workload a bit in his first season back. Still, let's take a look at where he stands in some of the key stats -- and where he might end up by the end of the season.
Note: ZiPS projections are a system of player projections developed by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski.
Strikeouts
1. Ricky Nolasco: 1,001
2. Josh Johnson: 832
3. Alcantara: 779
4. Dontrelle Willis: 757
Alcantara¡¯s 2025 ZiPS projection: 134 strikeouts
This is probably going to be one of the most interesting leaderboards to monitor when it comes to Alcantara¡¯s 2025 campaign. Assuming he stays healthy, he¡¯ll certainly pass Johnson in the season¡¯s first half.
Catching Nolasco might be a bit more difficult. Alcantara had back-to-back 200-strikeout seasons in 2021-22, but he¡¯s never had more than 207 in a single season. Given that the Marlins probably won't push Alcantara beyond 200 innings this year, it'd be surprising if he racks up the 222 K¡¯s necessary to match Nolasco. Still, Alcantara should at least position himself well to take over the franchise strikeout crown in 2026.
It's also worth noting that Alcantara -- who had 10 K¡¯s for the Cards in 2017 -- is just 211 shy of joining the 1,000-strikeout club for his career.
Wins
1. Nolasco: 81
2. Willis: 68
3. Johnson: 56
4. Brad Penny: 50
5. A.J. Burnett: 49
6. An¨ªbal S¨¢nchez: 44
7. Ryan Dempster: 42
T-8. Alcantara: 41
T-8. Josh Beckett: 41
Alcantara¡¯s 2025 ZiPS projection: 9 wins
There are a lot of names within striking distance for Alcantara on this list. Wins are obviously a team stat that go well beyond Alcantara¡¯s control, but if he gets the nine wins that ZiPS is projecting, he would leapfrog Dempster, S¨¢nchez, Burnett and Penny this season. If Alcantara can match his 14-win campaign from 2022, he¡¯d move within one victory of Johnson, who sits in third behind only Willis and Nolasco.
Innings pitched
1. Nolasco: 1,225 2/3
2. Willis: 1,022 2/3
3. Johnson: 916 2/3
4. Alcantara: 892 1/3
Alcantara¡¯s 2025 ZiPS projection: 157 1/3 innings
If all goes well, Alcantara will have the second-most innings pitched in a Marlins uniform by season¡¯s end. He should pass Johnson within his first handful of starts. Alcantara also needs only 130 2/3 innings to pass Willis for second on the club¡¯s all-time list. Nolasco is 333 1/3 innings clear of Alcantara, so he¡¯ll remain atop the leaderboard ¡ for now.
ERA
1. Johnson: 3.15
2. Alcantara: 3.31
3. Beckett: 3.46
Alcantara¡¯s 2025 ZiPS projection: 3.49 ERA
This is another franchise mark that is likely safe for this season. It¡¯s obviously trickier to project ERA leaderboards than it is raw totals like strikeouts or wins, but let¡¯s break down a hypothetical just to get an idea of what Alcantara would need to do in 2025 to surpass Johnson.
Let¡¯s say Alcantara pitches 175 innings this season. He would need to have a 2.31 ERA over those 175 innings to drop his overall Marlins ERA to 3.14.
Of course, this is the same guy who had a 2.28 ERA over 228 2/3 innings in his 2022 Cy Young-winning season, so don¡¯t count it out completely.
Complete games
1. Willis: 15
2. Burnett: 14
3. Alcantara: 12
Alcantara has had at least one complete game in each of his four full seasons with Miami, and multiple complete games in three of those four campaigns. That includes six in 2022 and three more in ¡¯23 -- good for an MLB-leading nine complete games in that two-season span.
Under normal circumstances, it would seem like a safe bet for Alcantara to at least catch Burnett, if not soar past both Burnett and Willis. That said, it remains to be seen how the Marlins will handle Alcantara¡¯s workload, both on a game-to-game and season-long basis.