PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- All but officially, the Mets have named their Opening Day rotation. With Sean Manaea (strained right oblique) and Frankie Montas (strained right lat) set to start the season on the injured list, the Mets had six realistic options from which to choose.
The odd man out wound up being Paul Blackburn, who will open the season in the bullpen. The remaining five will pitch in this order:
1. Clay Holmes, RHP
2024 statistics: 3.14 ERA, 63 IP, 68 K, 22 BB, 30 SV
New pitches: Cutter, kick change
Holmes may be an unlikely man to take the mound on Opening Day, considering he¡¯s started four career games and none since 2018. But he produced as impressive a spring as nearly any starting pitcher in baseball, adding to team officials¡¯ confidence that he can successfully transition from the bullpen to the rotation.
Over the coming months, Holmes will need to prove things on multiple fronts. Short-term, Holmes must show that his new pitches will help him navigate opposing batting orders multiple times in games that matter. Longer-term, Holmes must prove that his body can withstand the rigors of 20-plus, 25-plus, 30-plus starts. The Mets won¡¯t put an innings limit on Holmes, instead focusing on biometric markers to gauge his weekly strength and injury risk.
¡°It¡¯s having that mental endurance, too,¡± Holmes said of becoming a starter. ¡°You¡¯re really thinking through a lot of things. You¡¯re thinking about how you pitched a batter the last time and how you¡¯re going to pitch him this next time. Those are things you don¡¯t really do as a reliever.¡±
2. Tylor Megill, RHP
2024 Statistics: 4.04 ERA, 78 IP, 91 K, 32 BB
New pitches: Kick change
Every year, it seems, Megill arrives at camp on the outside of the roster bubble looking in. Every year, he winds up with a prominent role out of the chute. This year, injuries to Manaea and Montas did the trick, putting Megill in line to start the second game of the season (as well as the Mets¡¯ home opener). He believes he¡¯s a different pitcher now, more willing to attack the strike zone with what Mets officials have long considered above-average stuff.
Megill regularly used six pitches last season and figures to do the same this year, even if the specific mix and pitch shapes have changed. This winter, he worked on his curveball with his brother, Brewers closer Trevor Megill. The result is a pitch featuring a sharper, tighter break. Megill is also one of many pitchers around the league who picked up a kick change, which has partially replaced his splitter. Though the offerings feature similar movement, Megill feels he¡¯s better able to throw the changeup for strikes.
His goal, after four consecutive years of bouncing between the Majors, Minors and injured list, is to remain in the rotation all season.
¡°It¡¯s been a few years of being a fill-in,¡± Megill said. ¡°At some point, things have got to change. I want to be a guy that sticks.¡±
3. Griffin Canning, RHP
2024 Statistics: 5.19 ERA, 171 2/3 IP, 130 K, 66 BB
New pitches: Cutter
Statistically last season, Canning was one of the least successful pitchers in the Majors. The Mets signed him to a $4.25 million contract believing they could refine his arsenal, sequencing and pitch shapes, thereby turning him into a more effective starter.
If Canning performs even close to how he did in spring, he will easily vindicate their faith. The Angels castoff allowed three earned runs in four starts, notably fanning 22 batters over 14 1/3 innings after posting one of the league¡¯s worst strikeout rates last season.
¡°Honestly, I think a big part of last year when I didn¡¯t strike guys out was sequencing,¡± Canning said. ¡°I just wasn¡¯t setting guys up to strike out. I think it was just getting back to being myself.¡±
4. David Peterson, LHP
2024 Statistics: 2.90 ERA, 121 IP, 101 K, 46 BB
New pitches: None
Outside of Holmes, the steadiest Mets starter has probably been Peterson, who spent much of last year trying to prove that he wasn¡¯t about to regress to the mean. Much like Megill, Peterson has been around for five years but has never enjoyed a full, healthy season in the big league rotation. He¡¯s looking to change that now.
¡°I¡¯m not really adding anything new, but just trying to build off the good stuff mechanically I had last year,¡± Peterson said.
Though the Mets harbor as much faith in Peterson as anyone, they bumped him to the second series of the year because they prefer having their lone left-hander face the Marlins rather than the Brewers. As such, he¡¯ll start Game 4 of the season in Miami.
5. Kodai Senga, RHP
2024 Statistics: 3.38 ERA, 5 1/3 IP, 9 K, 1 BB
New pitches: Sinker
Call him the X-factor, the Wild Card, the Great Unknown. Although Senga is healthy enough to make the Opening Day rotation after missing nearly all last season due to shoulder, triceps and calf injuries, the Mets didn¡¯t feel comfortable starting him on Opening Day itself. Even in Game 5, team officials don¡¯t expect Senga to throw more than 65-75 pitches.
Their goal is to have Senga not just be present at the start of the season, but to remain in the rotation all year.
¡°Given that last year I didn¡¯t throw very many pitches, that base is kind of gone now,¡± Senga said through an interpreter. ¡°Am I a little bit worried? Sure, there¡¯s a little bit of worry. But I¡¯m on the same page with the coaches, the training staff, everybody on the team. They¡¯re doing their best to keep me on the field.¡±