How Randy can snap season-opening slump

May 3rd, 2024

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry¡¯s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- is not the only struggling star in Major League Baseball right now.

The Yankees¡¯ Aaron Judge hasn¡¯t hit like himself. Neither has Arizona¡¯s Corbin Carroll. Alex Bregman and Matt Olson are hovering around the Mendoza Line more than a month into the season. The list goes on, because baseball isn¡¯t easy even for those who often make it look that way.

And, of course, Arozarena is hardly the only cause for concern within Tampa Bay¡¯s lineup.

Yandy D¨ªaz has a .279 on-base percentage. Jose Siri is striking out in 41.4% of his plate appearances. Harold Ram¨ªrez has a .575 OPS. There are four players on the team with at least 90 plate appearances and fewer than five walks.

Still, the magnitude of Arozarena¡¯s season-opening slump has been stunning -- even to him.

¡°I know things haven¡¯t worked out the way I expected, the way I¡¯ve played [compared to] the way I played last year,¡± Arozarena said Tuesday night through Rays communications director Elvis Martinez. ¡°I feel a little down, because I¡¯m not supporting my teammates offensively. I¡¯m not carrying the load that I believe I can every single day.¡±

Arozarena entered the weekend batting .139 with a .220 on-base percentage and a .235 slugging percentage, amounting to a .455 OPS and a 34 OPS+. He owns the Majors¡¯ second-lowest batting average and third-lowest OPS among qualified hitters.

He hasn¡¯t had a multi-hit game since March 30. He¡¯s put together one game with multiple RBIs. He has three extra-base hits in 112 plate appearances dating back to April 1. He¡¯s left 61 runners on base.

Rays manager Kevin Cash has said on several occasions that Arozarena¡¯s issue is that he¡¯s not timed up at the plate. The numbers back up the notion.

He¡¯s getting beat by fastballs, batting just .133 with a 31.7% whiff rate against heaters this season. He¡¯s not doing damage on offspeed pitches, either, with just one hit (a single) and a 31.4% whiff rate against them. And breaking stuff has baffled him, as evidenced by his .179 average and 41.1% whiff rate on that front.

It¡¯s not like Arozarena is just beating himself by wildly swinging at pitches outside the zone. He¡¯s actually chasing less often this season than any other year in his career. If anything, what makes Arozarena¡¯s skid so surprising is how he¡¯s struggling in the strike zone. This season, Arozarena is whiffing on 31.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, according to Statcast, up from 23.5% last year, 21.3% in 2022 and 25.2% in ¡¯21.

The result is a massive drop-off in production from the 2023 All-Star, who put up pretty consistent numbers the past three years. He¡¯s coming off three straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases, and his OPS+ those three seasons ranged from 120 to 129.

He still believes he¡¯s got that level of performance in him.

¡°I¡¯m going to keep working. I¡¯m positive, in a good mindset,¡± he said. ¡°And hopefully everything goes back to what last year was and [I can] keep playing the baseball I know how to play.¡±

Cash expects the same thing, which is why he has continued to slot Arozarena high up in the order, with all of his starts coming in the No. 2, 3 or 4 spot.

¡°I agree with him, and I do believe he¡¯s going to fight his way through it,¡± Cash said. ¡°I know it¡¯s really tough to remain positive throughout a rough month or rough stretch that he¡¯s going through.¡±

Arozarena has gone through similar stretches before, albeit never to this extent. He hit just .195 with a .507 OPS during the first month of the 2022 season and bounced back from that. He had a brutal July last year, batting .153 with a .482 OPS, but rebounded in August.

Considering the key players they¡¯re missing and the overall struggles of their lineup, the Rays could use another quick and significant turnaround from Arozarena. If he gets his swing and swagger back, he¡¯s shown he can carry the team.

¡°Sometimes it takes a couple hard hits, maybe sometimes a couple ground balls that find their way to the outfield to get that confidence and get that momentum and get your mechanics feeling the way you want,¡± Cash said. ¡°And then we can see, when Randy gets going, he can get as hot as anybody in baseball.¡±

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