How will Rays' surplus of starters shake out?

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PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. -- If everyone stays healthy, there won¡¯t necessarily be a bunch of competitive position battles in Rays camp this year.

So, from a roster-building perspective, the most interesting question facing Tampa Bay in Spring Training might be a math problem: How do they get their top six starters into a five-man rotation?

That is something the Rays will have to figure out before their Opening Day matchup against the Rockies on March 28 at Steinbrenner Field. They don¡¯t see any need to rush to conclusions anytime soon.

¡°Part of going into this camp, the goal was to come in ideally a little bit heavy and let things sort themselves out. We don¡¯t anticipate going to a six-man [rotation]; we¡¯ve been pretty clear about that,¡± president of baseball operations Erik Neander said Tuesday. ¡°But there¡¯s just a lot between now and that point. It¡¯s close, but it¡¯s really far away at the same time.

¡°Just want to make sure we¡¯re being responsible and taking care of all those guys, and I think going in a little bit heavy is the right way to do it.¡±

The Rays¡¯ top six starters are Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Zack Littell, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Taj Bradley. They¡¯re all healthy at the start of camp, although McClanahan missed last season following Tommy John surgery and Rasmussen was held in the bullpen upon his return from an elbow procedure.

They all have varying degrees of workload concerns. Littell went from 104 innings in 2023 to 156 1/3 last year. Baz¡¯s 118 2/3 innings last year were a career high, as were the 130 innings Pepiot threw. Bradley has never thrown 150 innings in a professional season, although he¡¯s probably in the best position for a full workload after going 149 innings last year, 142 1/3 in 2023 and 133 1/3 in ¡¯22.

Some are being built up quicker than usual this spring, with Bradley, Pepiot and Littell already facing hitters in live batting practice the first few days of camp. It¡¯s possible some pitchers could get stretched out to handle six or seven innings before the season begins.

But they all have obvious cases to make the Opening Day rotation. McClanahan is an ace and a two-time All-Star. Rasmussen has a 2.67 ERA in 50 MLB starts, including opener assignments. Baz was excellent when he returned last season. Bradley was the best pitcher in baseball for a two-month stretch last summer. Littell and Pepiot were the Rays¡¯ most valuable starters all season.

¡°It¡¯s going to be really fun just to go in camp and get to push each other and make Erik make some kind of decision. I don¡¯t know what that¡¯s going to be,¡± Littell said. ¡°I think it¡¯s a really good problem for a team to have, to have six Major League-caliber starters that are really, really good. It¡¯s going to be really fun, not to mention it¡¯s just a really good group of guys.¡±

Humbly excluding himself, Littell said the rotation has five arms ¡°with extremely high upside that could pitch at the front of really any rotation when they¡¯re at their peak.¡± But if they all get through camp healthy, and the Rays don¡¯t change their stance on not using a six-man rotation, someone will have to be bumped to the bullpen, sent to the Minors or moved to another team.

Littell acknowledged that they¡¯ve all probably thought about how it will play out, but they know worrying about it won¡¯t do them any good at this point.

¡°They¡¯re way smarter than I am, and if it were chess, they¡¯d be three or four moves ahead of me,¡± Rasmussen said. ¡°I don¡¯t try to figure out what they¡¯re thinking, right? I just take every day for what it is, have fun and enjoy it. ¡­ That¡¯s their job, and I want nothing to do with it.¡±

The Rays plan to get all their starters up to the point of throwing three or four innings in games before making any decisions, manager Kevin Cash said. If they¡¯re all healthy at that point, then they¡¯ll consider their options.

Club officials don¡¯t want them thinking about it in the meantime. They know that having depth now doesn¡¯t guarantee anything come Opening Day. For now, it¡¯s a good problem to have.

¡°They¡¯re pros. They understand,¡± Cash said. ¡°You hope that their mind is at ease enough to where they can just go and get ready for a Spring Training, because all of them -- or the six that have been publicly alluded too -- they¡¯re pretty deserving of opportunities to take the ball every fifth day.¡±