Can Witt get even better? He's working to on the basepaths

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- How does Bobby Witt Jr. follow up a season in which he earned his first All-Star nod, a runner-up finish in American League MVP voting, a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and All-MLB honors?

By never settling -- and zeroing in on the area in which he has the most room for improvement: Baserunning.

¡°Trying to have that confidence in my basestealing,¡± Witt said earlier this month. ¡°After my first year, it was like, ¡®All right, defensively, [I] wasn¡¯t great.¡¯ Got better there. Offensively, got better there.

¡°I¡¯m one of the fastest guys in the league, so I shouldn¡¯t be getting thrown out the way I am. So it¡¯s just watching videos, trying to figure out things, and that¡¯s what¡¯s fun about this game. It¡¯s always a game of adjustments.¡±

Witt stole 31 bases in 2024, tied for 12th-most in MLB and helping him to his second 30-homer, 30-steals season. But he also got caught 12 times, third-most in MLB. He runs a ton, and no one can be perfect.

But Statcast¡¯s new baserunning metrics offer more insight into Witt¡¯s running game.

? Witt makes history as 1st shortstop with two 30-30 seasons

Last year, Witt was one of the most valuable baserunners in terms of taking the extra base -- going first to third, scoring from first, etc. -- but he was much less valuable in terms of his basestealing.

Witt¡¯s value from extra bases taken, +5 runs created, ranked third in MLB in 2024, behind only Corbin Carroll (+9) and Jarren Duran (+6).

But his basestealing value was only +1 run created, tied for 35th in MLB, below top basestealers like Shohei Ohtani (+7) and Elly De La Cruz (+6).

That was a dropoff from the first two years of Witt¡¯s career. He had +3 runs created from basestealing in both 2022 and '23, and his combined +6 basestealing run value over those two seasons was tied for the best among all MLB baserunners.

Witt is exactly right when he says he shouldn¡¯t be getting thrown out the way he is; that was the reason for his barely above-average basestealing value in 2024, despite his elite speed. The cost of a caught-stealing -- erasing a runner from the bases and adding an out -- is much bigger than the positive value of advancing one base via a steal.

So what is Witt doing about it?

First, he focused on speed work this winter, coming to camp and saying he ¡°just feels faster.¡± That¡¯s a great thing for a player whose 30.5 f.t./sec. sprint speed last year was the fastest in MLB.

Now, he¡¯s working on his reaction times and first steps with first-base coach Damon Hollins this spring. The drills involve a timing mechanism with a 360-degree LED display called SmartSpeed Technology.

Hollins sets the tripod on the mound at varying heights -- simulating a pitcher¡¯s front hip, elbow, shoulder, anything the Royals might see as a ¡°tell¡± for when to run -- and the runner takes a lead at first base watching the yellow light.

When the light turns green, that¡¯s when he breaks toward second.

The light¡¯s timing can be varied, so it can be quick or slow like what would happen in a game.

¡°Everybody knows he¡¯s one of the fastest guys in the league,¡± Hollins said. ¡°We¡¯re just being creative with Bobby. Him coming into his fourth year, there¡¯s going to be some comfortability there, along with him just wanting to be better.

¡°He doesn¡¯t struggle with many things -- and I don¡¯t even want to say struggle. Just the issues that have come up with him and his reaction times are things we¡¯re really trying to dial in on and clean up.¡±

They¡¯re incorporating audio components along with the visual technology on when to react, as well as ways to objectively measure the drill instead of just feeling whether it was a good reaction.

Live reads are important, too, so Witt and other runners have been getting on the bases during live BPs.

¡°Just trying to make it as game-like as possible, like I do in the cage and like I do in the field,¡± Witt said. ¡°It gives me as many game-like reps as possible so when the games start, I¡¯m ready to go.¡±

The data backs up what the Royals are targeting with Witt¡¯s work on his first step. One of the key areas where he has room for improvement is getting a strong jump when he decides to steal.

Statcast measures every basestealer's "lead distance gained," which is the distance the runner covers from the start of the pitcher's delivery up to when the pitcher releases the pitch. That shows you how good of a jump he's getting.

Witt's average lead distance gained on steal attempts has decreased in each of his three seasons, and it was more than two feet below league average in 2024.

Witt's average lead distance gained on SB attempts by season

• 2022: 9.7 feet
• 2023: 9.6 feet
• 2024: 9.4 feet (MLB average: 11.5 feet)

Witt¡¯s overall lead distances are also shorter than average. On steal attempts of second base, Witt's average primary lead in 2024 was 11.5 feet; the MLB average was 11.9 feet. Witt's average secondary lead was 20.2 feet; the MLB average was 22.4 feet.

Part of the reason for this is that pitchers are holding Witt closer to the bag. They know he has the speed to create chaos, and that he pretty much always has a green light to run.

But that means that when Witt decides to steal, he can end up relying on his raw speed, rather than getting an aggressive lead and good jump. Because Witt has the speed, a lot of the time he can just steal the base anyway. But not always, and those outs add up.

Statcast's basestealing leaderboard shows ¡°Net Bases Gained,¡± which takes a player¡¯s successful advances vs. an average runner and subtracts their outs made on the bases vs. an average runner. Think of it as a player's successful stolen bases above average.

Witt¡¯s Net Bases Gained last year was +9, third-worst among the 24 Major Leaguers who stole at least 30 bases. He was much better in his first two seasons.

Witt's Net Bases Gained by season

• 2022: +16 (5th in MLB)
• 2023: +24 (5th in MLB)
• 2024: +9 (T-37th in MLB)

There¡¯s a balance between stealing bases aggressively and not getting caught. That¡¯s what Witt is emphasizing with his work this spring.

¡°You think about the caught-stealings and how close they were,¡± Hollins said. ¡°Looking at video, it¡¯s like, ¡®If he would have left a tenth or fifth of a second earlier, would he have been more successful in those close plays?¡¯ Obviously, the catcher has to be perfect, and everyone knows he¡¯s going to go, but that¡¯s what makes a basestealer a basestealer. You¡¯re coming in the game, we know you want to run, we¡¯re going to do whatever it takes to keep you there.

¡°So if [Witt] can leave a little early, if he can recognize something or look at one thing that twitches or moves in his still start, he¡¯s going to be on the successful side of those things.¡±