We all know what the hook is going to be on the Tigers/Astros Wild Card matchup, and it＊s manager A.J. Hinch leading his miracle Gritty Tigs to face the Houston team that he＊d led from 2015-＊19, before being fired in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal. (Not to mention Justin Verlander, a 13-year Tiger, looking on from the Houston dugout, though he＊s unlikely to appear in the best-of-three series.) It＊s a soap opera angle. It＊s extremely interesting.
But there＊s baseball to be played here, too, and that gives us another angle, which is the playoff-tested Astros, who made the playoffs in each of the last seven seasons, against a Detroit team that couldn't even manage a .500 record once in that time. Put it this way: Houston has played 103 postseason games since this current run of success began in 2015. The Tigers, who have existed for six decades longer than the Astros, have played 120 postseason games. Ever.
It＊s true, obviously, that there are far more postseason games on the schedule than there were when the Tigers were a charter member of the American League back in 1901, but it also underscores that it＊s more than an understatement to say this is a matchup we absolutely did not see entering the season. It＊s a made-for-TV drama, sure. It＊s also extremely compelling baseball.
The Astros come in hot, with the best record in the Majors since June 1. The Tigers know from hot too, considering their late season comeback 每 fueled mostly by treating the last two months of pitching like playoff games 每 but if we＊ve learned anything over the years, it＊s that absolutely anything can happen in a best-of-three. So: how does this one break down? Let＊s go position by position.
Catcher
We wanted really badly to reward Jake Rogers' outstanding defense, because he is, by Statcast metrics, a top-five defensive catcher in the game, and that matters. But you have to hit at least a little, and Rogers, the only real value the Tigers landed from the otherwise failed 2018 Verlander trade, has a mere 73 OPS+ this year and has hit .192/.266/.368 in the second half. Yainer Diaz isn＊t the same caliber of backstop, yet he＊s been a revelation in his first year as Houston＊s primary catcher, particularly since June 1, when he＊s been a top-30 hitter at any position across the sport. If he＊s needed elsewhere, Victor Caratini has had a solid year himself (113 OPS+).
Advantage: Astros
First base
This one＊s not exactly a strength on either side, particularly for Houston, because even after releasing Jos谷 Abreu on June 14, the Astros still had the third-weakest first basemen in the game, which might actually lead to Diaz playing some here in the playoffs. But on the other hand, Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 Draft, has had such an up-and-down career that he spent most of his summer in Triple-A despite hitting 31 homers for the big league team last year. He has been one of the Tigers' better hitters since his return, at least, so he earns the edge even though Jon Singleton has been somewhat better late in the year as well.
Advantage: Tigers
Second base
Sometimes, they make it easy on us. Jose Altuve, at 34, is probably somewhat past his peak, but he also just put together a 20-20 season to go with a 126 OPS+. Oh, and he has 27 postseason homers. Tigers rookie Colt Keith produced hot months in May and July and been somewhat inconsistent otherwise. All signs point to him having a good, solid career, but for the moment, he＊s matched up against a future Hall of Famer here.
Advantage: Astros
Shortstop
While it＊s more than a little overblown that Detroit＊s late summer surge began roughly when Javier B芍ez suffered a season-ending injury, it＊s also true that B芍ez had a 46 OPS+ and wasn＊t doing a whole lot to help the team win. Rookie replacement Trey Sweeney, acquired in the Jack Flaherty trade, hasn＊t exactly hit a ton himself (84 OPS+), but he＊s been competent, and his solid defense has been a big part of the overall fielding improvement of the team. On the other side, Houston still has Jeremy Pe?a, who is having the same kind of Jeremy Pe?a season he always has, which is to say ※league average hitting with some power and speed,§ though his defense has taken a mild step back. He＊s more of a known quantity here, anyway.
Advantage: Astros
Third base
After cutting free Gio Urshela, the Tigers have been rolling out combinations of Andy Ib芍?ez, Jace Jung, and Matt Vierling, and there are things to like about each 每 particularly Ib芍?ez＊s ability to crush lefty pitching, which will be useful against Game 1 starter Framber Valdez. But the Astros still have Alex Bregman, headed into potentially his final Houston postseason run, and his reputation precedes him. More importantly, he＊s been hitting well for months after a relatively slow start.
Advantage: Astros
Left field
There was a version of this where Yordan Alvarez would see some time out here, as he did 53 times this year, but that seems implausible now given that he injured his right knee and missed the final week of the season. If he plays, it would be as a DH, so instead, expect Houston to use midseason pickup Jason Heyward against righties and utilityman Mauricio Dub車n against lefties. It's no comparison to the Tigers rolling out an an All-Star here in Riley Greene, who＊s gone from the No. 5 overall pick in 2019 to posting a 130 OPS+ this year. It＊s one of the best hitting seasons by a Tigers outfielder this century.
Advantage: Tigers
Center field
If you＊re looking for a real turning point of the Detroit season, that might have been when Parker Meadows returned from the injured list in early August, after which he hit .291/.333/.500 with highlight catch after highlight catch after highlight catch. Houston might not actually be at a defensive disadvantage here, because Jake Meyers has piled up +14 Outs Above Average, a top-five mark among center fielders. But his bat can＊t compare to that of Meadows, and he hit only .190/.256/.307 in the season＊s final four months.
Advantage: Tigers
Right field
Kyle Tucker is a perennial MVP candidate, and was off to a red-hot start this year before a fractured shin cost him months. All he＊s done since returning is to put up a .365/.453/.587 line, which does a whole lot to ward off any concerns about his health. The Tigers might use Kerry Carpenter or Vierling here, but primarily it＊s been rookie Wenceel P谷rez (92 OPS+), who＊s added strong defense and a few big hits. He＊s not, however, Tucker.
Advantage: Astros
Designated hitter
This ended up being easy once the Astros Wild Card roster came out and Alvarez was on it, because he is one of the game＊s truly elite hitters, putting up a career start that＊s going to have him remembered as among his generation＊s best bats 每 without even getting into his seemingly endless postseason heroics. Carpenter, meanwhile, has been absolutely fantastic this season, posting a 159 OPS+ headed into the final day, when he then hit a grand slam.
Advantage: Astros
Rotation
Let＊s start off by reminding that in a best-of-three series, you＊re potentially playing only two games. There＊s no such thing as a five-man rotation, or even four; there＊s not an expectation that your starter will go extremely deep to save the bullpen. It＊s all hands on deck here. That＊s good news for Detroit, because Houston＊s rotation is much, much deeper 每 an advantage that won＊t mean as much in a short series.
It＊s a Tigers edge in Game 1, at least, because Tarik Skubal is going to win the AL Cy Young Award handily, considering he＊s spent the last year and a half proving he＊s maybe the top starter in the game. It＊s not, of course, that Valdez isn＊t excellent 每 he is 每 and it＊s easy to see him confounding a youthful Tigers offense. But as much as we like Valdez, Skubal is better.
The question is what comes next. Detroit spent weeks with a two-man rotation, and Keider Montero＊s otherwise solid run has come with one of baseball＊s weakest strikeout rates. Maybe the Tigers will use Reese Olson, though he hasn＊t thrown more than four innings since returning from injury. To be honest, the post-Skubal rotation doesn＊t matter for Detroit, because that＊s not how this staff operates; they＊ll get outs from wherever they can find them.
But the Astros can follow Valdez with Hunter Brown, or Yusei Kikuchi. They can even use Ronel Blanco or Spencer Arighetti if they want to, and that we＊re talking about ※a lot of good names and none of them are Justin Verlander,§ tells you about how superior their group is.
Advantage: Astros
Bullpen
※What if we made the entire staff out of the bullpen§ is sort of the Tigers creed right now, and even though you don＊t actually know all of the names such as Beau Brieske and Tyler Holton and Will Vest ahead of Jason Foley, you probably know that this is the best run prevention bullpen of the season＊s final two months. It certainly doesn＊t hurt to be able to call up baseball＊s top pitching prospect, Jackson Jobe, in the final week of the season and watch him completely live up to expectations.
But the Astros still have Josh Hader, of course, and he＊s still striking out 13 per nine innings and generally doing Josh Hader things. They have Bryan Abreu, who has allowed three runs in the last month and who, along with Ryan Pressly, gives manager Joe Espada a three-headed playoff-tested monster, in addition to one of those excess starters and their own out-of-nowhere reliever in Kaleb Ort, who has nearly seven times as many strikeouts as walks. It＊s closer than you think, because this is also a really good collection of arms. It＊s just that the bullpen is essentially Detroit＊s entire reason for being here, aside from Skubal.
Advantage: Tigers
Prediction
It＊s true that the regular season records will tell you that these teams are extremely close, and the Tigers deserve every last bit of credit they＊ve earned for their run to the playoffs. The way they＊ve done it 每 having everything, essentially, go their way 每 hasn＊t just been for a week or two. It＊s been for months. It＊s not exactly fluky. It doesn＊t have to stop now.
But it＊s also a lot to ask to keep it going indefinitely, especially against a team that＊s been to the ALCS seven years in a row, and that just happens to be playing its own best baseball of the season. For as hot as Detroit has been in August and September, Houston has been right there with them on their own hot run. Don＊t write off the Tigers 每 but don＊t forget the Astros, either.
Astros in three.