Breaking down the Max Fried deal from all angles
Another top free agent is off the market. And this time, the Yankees wouldn¡¯t be denied.
Two days after missing out on Juan Soto to the Mets, the Yanks struck an eight-year, $218 million deal with lefty starter Max Fried, a source told MLB.com¡¯s Mark Feinsand. New York spent big to bolster its strong starting rotation, inking Fried to the largest guaranteed contract for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history.
The 30-year-old spent his first eight seasons with the Braves, earning two National League All-Star nominations and three NL Gold Glove Awards. A staple in Atlanta¡¯s rotation for the past six years, Fried helped the Braves win the 2021 World Series and finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting the following year.
Now he¡¯s a Yankee, joining Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rod¨®n, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt in the rotation for the 2024 American League champions.
Fried by the numbers
Here is a breakdown of this move from all angles, via MLB.com experts.
Why did the Yankees make this move?
via Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch
Fried, who turns 31 in January, is envisioned as a formidable No. 2 who could slot behind Cole in a postseason rotation. Though he has pitched to a 5.10 ERA in 20 career postseason games, Fried delivered a six-inning gem against the Astros in the deciding Game 6 of the 2021 World Series. Relying heavily on command and spin, Fried has been especially effective since 2020, posting a 2.81 ERA -- the lowest in MLB among pitchers with at least 500 innings in that span (Corbin Burnes is second at 2.88). Fried turned down a qualifying offer from the Braves, meaning there is Draft compensation attached to the signing.
The deal comes two years after the Yankees signed Rod¨®n to a six-year, $162 million deal, in which they expected him to solidify the top of the rotation behind Cole. Rod¨®n struggled with injuries in his first season but posted better results this past year, tallying a 19-17 record and 4.74 ERA across his first 46 starts as a Yankee. It is possible that the Yankees may now explore trades involving Nestor Cortes, who is arbitration-eligible after earning $3.95 million this past season. A deal involving Marcus Stroman is another possibility; owed $18 million for 2025, he was moved to the bullpen in September and did not appear in the postseason. MORE >
What do the Braves do now?
via Braves beat writer Mark Bowman
Fried's expected departure was far less dramatic than the exit of any previous Braves star. The 2021 World Series hero will forever be an Atlanta sports legend -- but at no point during this offseason was there reason to think he would stay. The free-agent departures of Freddie Freeman (after the 2021 season) and Dansby Swanson (after the '22 season) helped build the thought Fried could be the next star to exit. The expectation grew stronger as Fried remained without one of the extensions the Braves gave to their younger stars over the past couple years.
Braves fans will always recognize Fried as one of the most valuable pieces gained via the significant rebuild the club experienced from 2015-17. He was acquired from the Padres in December 2014 and debuted for Atlanta on Aug. 8, 2017. While Fried¡¯s departure might stir memories, this development doesn¡¯t change the Braves¡¯ offseason approach. He was never considered a candidate to fill the team¡¯s need for a starting pitcher. Chris Sale, Reynaldo L¨®pez and Spencer Schwellenbach will anchor the rotation until Spencer Strider returns from elbow surgery near the end of April. Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver serve as rotation depth. MORE >
Hot Stove implications
via senior national reporter Mark Feinsand
Fried becomes the second of the big three free-agent starting pitchers to sign this offseason, joining Blake Snell, who landed a five-year, $182 million deal with the Dodgers last month.
For the Yankees, Fried is their first response to losing Soto, though New York remains in the market for a first baseman, a second or third baseman, a left fielder and a reliever.
As far as the pitching market goes, Fried¡¯s deal -- the fourth-largest ever for a starting pitcher -- sets the expectation that Burnes will knock that down to fifth, with a deal of $240 million or more now in play. The Blue Jays and Giants appear to be the front-runners for Burnes.
Burnes has been the top starter on the board all winter, but with Fried and Snell both signed, the former Brewers Cy Young winner now represents the last true No. 1 on the open market. The other free-agent starters of note include Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta, while Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo and Framber Valdez headline the list of pitchers potentially available on the trade market.
Diving deep
via analyst Mike Petriello
Fried¡¯s tools aren¡¯t nearly as loud as Snell¡¯s velocity or Burnes¡¯ cutter, and yet all he¡¯s done is to put up an ERA 40% better than average over the last five seasons, which is the best of any starter with at least 90 starts. It¡¯s also the second best of any Braves pitcher in history, behind some guy named Maddux. What Fried does is simple, even if how he does it is not: He keeps runs off the board.
Some of that is his own defense, as he¡¯s a three-time Gold Glover, and he¡¯s outstanding at holding runners on base. But: if he¡¯s not blowing you away with velocity or otherworldly breaking pitches, what is he doing? He¡¯s preventing the loudest kind of contact, mostly. Over the last five seasons, Fried¡¯s hard-hit rate percentiles -- where 99th is elite and 1st is awful -- are 98, 82, 90, 88, and 81, which is to say ¡°he¡¯s consistently, every year, very difficult to square up.¡±
As FanGraphs recently wrote, Fried is extremely difficult to hit doubles or homers off of, and the thinking there is that he¡¯s got a deep repertoire (seven pitches that all do something a little different), making it all but impossible for the batter to guess what¡¯s coming. And while we tend to think about bat speed in terms of the hitter, well, it¡¯s worth noting that Fried¡¯s 19% fast-swing rate against is in the bottom 15 of pitchers who saw 500 swings. All of which means that while he¡¯s good-not-great at missing bats, he¡¯s consistently excellent at keeping the ball off the barrel. That¡¯s a skill that could play well in Yankee Stadium, even if he won¡¯t wow you with the eye test.
Stat to know
Via MLB.com research staff
4: How many shutouts Fried has thrown since 2021, the most in the Major Leagues in that span. Sure, one of those shutouts came in a shortened, five-inning contest against the Mets in 2023, but Fried has repeatedly shown his ability to dominate opposing lineups. His most recent shutout was a three-hitter against the Marlins in April 2024, one of Fried¡¯s two complete games last season -- tied with Cristopher S¨¢nchez and Kevin Gausman for the most in MLB.