Where things stand with top 11 free agents, trade candidates

The Hot Stove was burning up around the time of the Winter Meetings earlier this month. Juan Soto landed a record-setting deal with the Mets. The Yankees, who watched Soto move to a different borough, pivoted to signing left-handed ace Max Fried and trading for elite closer Devin Williams.

Speaking of trades, the Red Sox made a big upgrade to their rotation, acquiring Garrett Crochet from the White Sox for a handful of prospects. The Cubs picked up star outfielder Kyle Tucker in a headline deal with the Astros.

Willy Adames joined the Giants on a 7-year pact, Tyler O'Neill found a home with the Orioles, and Nathan Eovaldi decided to stay with the Rangers. There was a lot going on!

But this week, the Stove is at a slow simmer. There have been a few notable moves, including the Yankees-Cubs swap involving Cody Bellinger, but there hasn't been the frenzy of transactions that one might have anticipated once those top players came off the board.

• Latest free agent & trade rumors

So as we reach the thick of the holiday season, let's take a minute to step back and survey the landscape. Here is where things stand with 11 impact players -- seven free agents and four trade candidates -- who still don't know where they will be playing in 2025.

FREE AGENTS

RHP Corbin Burnes
While Soto was undoubtedly the best free-agent hitter in this year's class, Burnes is unquestionably at the top of the pitching market. A former Cy Young Award winner and the owner of a 2.94 ERA since the start of 2021, Burnes has been most recently linked to four clubs: the Giants, the Blue Jays, the Red Sox and the incumbent Orioles.

But this really might be a two-team race. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported at the end of the Winter Meetings on Dec. 11 that San Francisco and Toronto are "expected to be the most aggressive" on Burnes. MLB Network insider Jon Paul Morosi said earlier this week that the Giants are viewed as "perhaps the frontrunner" to sign the four-time All-Star.

Regardless, it's clear that Burnes is going to get an absolutely massive contract. He is expected to sign a deal that is richer than Fried's (eight years, $218 million), with some projecting a deal worth more than $245 million, according to Feinsand. Only two pitchers in MLB history, Gerrit Cole and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, have inked pricier contracts.

RHP Roki Sasaki
We at least have a pretty good idea of when this 23-year-old fireballer will officially join a Major League team.

Sasaki, who was posted for teams on Dec. 10, has until 5 p.m. ET on Jan. 23 to join a big league club. But he is not expected to sign until at least Jan. 15. That's when the 2025 international amateur signing period begins, which resets each team's bonus pool. A club interested in Sasaki can pay him with only the money in its pool because he is under 25 years old and hasn't played at least six years in a foreign league recognized by MLB. The most money any team could theoretically offer is just more than $7.5 million.

With dollars not a determining factor, you can't really rule out any team for Sasaki, who has an electric repertoire of pitches. The Yankees have been granted a meeting with him. The Mets reportedly met with him on Thursday. But team executives across the league believe there are two favorites to land the right-hander: the Dodgers and the Padres.

3B Alex Bregman
Before the Astros pulled off the Tucker trade, they offered Bregman a six-year, $156 million deal, a source told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. That would have been the most lucrative contract in franchise history, but it's believed that Bregman is looking for something closer to $200 million. Houston then acquired Isaac Paredes as part of the trade, giving it a possible Bregman replacement at third base as well as a right-handed hitter who is a perfect fit in the Astros' ballpark.

Houston might still be interested in re-signing the player whom they drafted at No. 2 overall in 2015. But a handful of other clubs are eyeing the two-time World Series champion. That group includes the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Tigers and Blue Jays. Feinsand wrote that quintet has "varying degrees" of interest in Bregman.

Each club could use Bregman's Gold Glove at the hot corner, but the Red Sox are also reportedly considering Bregman as their second baseman. Morosi said Thursday that he thinks the Red Sox "are more of a possibility than the New York Yankees at the moment" for Bregman. That's because Morosi believes the Yanks are more concentrated on the next position on this list.

1B Pete Alonso and Christian Walker
Alonso's 226 home runs are second only to Aaron Judge's 232 since the start of 2019, but the Polar Bear's market has been "eerily quiet," per Feinsand. There are plenty of teams that need help at first base -- the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Astros and D-backs are among them -- but none seem willing to meet Alonso's asking price. Mets owner Steve Cohen said last week that the club is "still engaged" in talks with Alonso. After acquiring Cody Bellinger -- and much of his $27.5 million salary for 2025 -- the Yankees may fill their first-base void with cheaper free-agent alternatives such as Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, according to Feinsand.

Walker is three years older than the 30-year-old Alonso, but he carries plenty of appeal because of his 30-homer pop and fantastic defense as a three-time Gold Glove winner. The Mariners want to add an impact hitter at first, and Walker has reportedly been atop their offseason wish list, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times (subscription required).

OF Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández
They aren't equal to Soto -- who is? -- but Santander and Hernández are the next-best outfielders in free agency. The former had 44 homers with the Orioles this past season, the fourth-most in a single season by a switch-hitter. The latter won the World Series with the Dodgers after slugging a career-high 33 dingers.

Hernández has said that he would prefer to return to the Dodgers, and the interest appears mutual. Yet the two sides haven't been able to come to an agreement. Hernández, 32, is seeking a three-year deal in the $22-24 million per year range, sources told Feinsand. The Red Sox have also been linked to Hernández as have the Blue Jays.

However, Toronto may prefer Santander. The 30-year-old is believed to be looking for a five-year deal, likely in the $100 million range. Feinsand lists the Dodgers, Tigers and Nationals as other teams to watch for Santander. The Yankees have also been mentioned as a possible landing spot for either outfielder, but New York's outfield might be set following the Bellinger acquisition.

Santander and Hernández -- along with Burnes, Bregman, Alonso and Walker -- rejected a qualifying offer this offseason, so any team that signs them away from the 2024 club will have to forfeit Draft picks and/or international bonus pool money.

TRADE CANDIDATES

3B Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
One of the biggest stories of the week was the news that Arenado invoked his full no-trade clause to squash a potential trade that would have sent him from the Cardinals to the Astros, sources told MLB.com. Morosi said that Arenado may still end up in Houston later, but the Southern California native wants to see if there is a potential fit with a club closer to home, such as the Dodgers or the Padres. Morosi added that the Red Sox are a team to keep an eye on for the eight-time All-Star who is under contract for three more seasons at $74 million, though the Rockies are on the hook for $10 million as part of their 2021 trade with St. Louis.

The Yankees are believed to have an interest in Arenado, but the Yanks are not on the list of clubs for whom Arenado would waive his no-trade clause. That list, a source told MLB.com's John Denton, includes the Dodgers, Padres, Angels, Red Sox, Mets and Phillies.

RHP Dylan Cease, Padres
MLB Network insider Jon Heyman wrote in the New York Post that the Padres have fielded trade inquiries on a number of their star players, including Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez and Cease. The 28-year-old right-hander was dealt from the White Sox to the Padres shortly before this past season and enjoyed a standout year on the West Coast (3.47 ERA with 224 strikeouts in 189 1/3 innings). He also finished among the top five in Cy Young voting for the second time in three seasons.

Cease is entering his final year of arbitration and could be an option for one of the teams most often mentioned in the trade market for starting pitching -- Orioles, Cubs and Red Sox. Feinsand wrote that Cease "would seem like a solid fallback plan for the Orioles" if they don't re-sign Burnes. However, Feinsand thinks the next pitcher on this list might be a better target for Baltimore.

RHP Luis Castillo, Mariners
In the wake of the Fried signing and the Crochet trade, the Mariners "have been taking a higher volume of calls" on Castillo, sources told MLB.com's Daniel Kramer. Castillo, 32, will cost about $72 million over the next three seasons, and he has a $25 vesting option for 2028. Shedding that money from the payroll could free up the Mariners to go get that aforementioned impact first baseman.

The veteran right-hander has produced a 120 ERA+ during his eight-year career and is a three-time All-Star. According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), the Cubs, Red Sox, Mets and O's are among the teams that have at least inquired about Castillo.

LHP Jesús Luzardo, Marlins
Castillo would seem to be a good fit for the Cubs and their left-handed-heavy rotation. But Chicago has been linked most recently to Luzardo, who had a fabulous season in 2023 (3.58 ERA, 208 K's in 178 2/3 innings). However, Luzardo has been injury-prone throughout his career and was limited to only 66 2/3 frames this past season because of left elbow tightness followed by a season-ending back injury in June.

Fully healthy now, Luzardo has two years of club control remaining. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score in Chicago reported a few days ago that the Cubs were in talks with the Marlins regarding Luzardo, with Miami possibly coveting one of the Cubs' top Minor League hitters. However, Levine said Wednesday that a Cubs-Marlins deal for Luzardo "doesn't appear to be happening."