What you need to know about pivotal Mets-Braves series
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
Mark Bowman
@mlbbowmanATLANTA -- From Chipper Jones to Freddie Freeman to Matt Olson, the Braves have spent the past three decades or so serving as the Mets¡¯ chief tormentors. For even the best New York teams over that time, the Braves have been the final boss.
It was just two years ago that the Mets headed into Atlanta for their penultimate series of the regular season needing a single win to take firm control of the National League East race. They couldn¡¯t do it. Behind a monster series from Olson and a vintage performance by Atlanta¡¯s bullpen, the Braves swept the Mets, who settled for a Wild Card berth and crashed out of the first round of the playoffs.
This year¡¯s Mets team, featuring much of the same offensive core, would like nothing more than to exact a measure of revenge when the clubs meet for a three-game series beginning Tuesday at Truist Park.
¡°I feel like we¡¯ve been playing playoff games for the last week or so, and we shouldn¡¯t treat it any differently than that,¡± Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo said. ¡°You go into there, it¡¯s going to be high-energy, it¡¯s going to be a playoff atmosphere, and it¡¯s going to be great.¡±
Entering this installment, it¡¯s the Braves who are in trouble. Despite winning four of their last five games, Atlanta enters the series staring at a two-game deficit in the NL Wild Card standings. Anything less than a sweep of the Mets will prevent them from controlling their own destiny heading into the final weekend. And the Braves continue to play without key contributors Ronald Acu?a Jr., Austin Riley and Spencer Strider, who are all done for the regular season.
But the Mets are vulnerable, too, despite standing on more solid footing than their rivals. They¡¯re also missing a key player in Francisco Lindor, who was not in the lineup for the series opener on Tuesday. And they¡¯re just three losses away from being right back in the same position they were in 2022, needing help over their final three games to reach their goals.
When are the games and how can I watch?
Game times are as follows:
Tuesday, 7:20 p.m. ET
Wednesday, 7:20 p.m. ET
Thursday, 7:20 p.m. ET
All three games will be broadcast on SNY in the New York area and Bally Sports South around Atlanta.
What¡¯s at stake?
Nothing less than full control of each team¡¯s respective playoff destinies.
If the Mets win at least two games, they¡¯ll clinch a Wild Card berth in Atlanta. If they win at least one game, they¡¯ll retain control of their own destiny heading into their final three games of the regular season in Milwaukee.
But if the Braves win all three, they¡¯ll exit the series with a one-game lead over the Mets and full control of their own destiny. That¡¯s the only scenario in which the Mets would need help from other teams during the season¡¯s final weekend.
Whoever wins this series will also take the season series against their division rivals. This would give them the tiebreaker if they should finish the regular season tied in the standings.
What happened when these two teams met earlier this season?
This will be the fourth meeting between them. In April, the Mets took two of three in Atlanta thanks to a 16-run outburst from their offense in the finale. In May, the Braves won two of three in New York, losing the finale on a walk-off. And in July, the clubs split a four-game set in Queens.
In terms of games, the Mets and Braves have split their 10 meetings, which is partially what makes this series so impactful.
Why does winning the head-to-head season series matter?
When MLB expanded the postseason to its current format in 2022, it also eliminated Game 163 tiebreakers. As such, holding a head-to-head tiebreaker can make the difference between playing into October and falling one game short.
How do the rotations line up for this series?
The Mets will go with Luis Severino, David Peterson and Sean Manaea. They pushed Severino up in the rotation to start Tuesday¡¯s opener, so that he¡¯ll also be available in Game 162 should that contest mean something for their playoff chances.
The Braves will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale and Max Fried in that order. Sale¡¯s fastball dipped below 90 mph during the final stages of his five-inning effort against the Reds on Thursday. This might have influenced the decision to give him an extra day of rest, instead of lining him up Tuesday to create the option for him to also start the regular-season finale, if necessary, on regular rest.
Schwellenbach has been quite effective against top teams. Here¡¯s how he has fared against the NL¡¯s best:
Phillies: 18 1/3 innings, five earned runs (2.45 ERA)
Dodgers: Six innings, two earned runs (3.00 ERA)
Padres: Seven innings, one earned run (1.29 ERA)
Mets: Seven innings, zero earned runs
Brewers and D-backs: No starts
What¡¯s the recent history between these two teams at Truist Park?
This year, the Mets won two of three in their only trip to Atlanta. That was back in April.
Of course, the most relevant narrative arc points to September 2022, when the Mets entered Truist Park needing only one win to effectively clinch the NL East. Instead, the Braves swept them to retake control of the division and send the Mets spiraling. New York would like nothing more than to return the favor this week.
Are there any injuries of note?
Despite hopes that Lindor could return on Tuesday from the lower-back injury he suffered Sept. 13 in Philadelphia, the shortstop was not in the lineup for the series opener, his eighth straight game missed. Lindor received a facet joint injection last Thursday and has been recovering from that shot ever since, increasing his baseball activities most days. But it¡¯s unclear how effective Lindor will be in his return, or even if he¡¯ll be able to get back this week. He said Sunday that he doesn¡¯t expect to play without pain for the rest of the year.
Also of note, Kodai Senga is done for the regular season due to triceps inflammation. The Mets had entered September with hope that Senga could throw an inning or two in the Braves series, but that¡¯s no longer going to be possible.
The Braves lost Strider after one healthy start and Acu?a after just two months. Six members of their Opening Day lineup (Strider included) have missed at least two months this year. Ozzie Albies just returned from a fractured left wrist, but the switch-hitter is exclusively batting from the right side. Riley is hoping to return at some point in October if the Braves reach the postseason.
How fresh is each bullpen?
Keep an eye on Edwin D¨ªaz, whom the Mets extended in a big way over the weekend. He recorded four outs on Saturday and another six on Sunday. Although D¨ªaz intends to be ready to pitch in the series opener in Atlanta, the Mets could back off him for at least a day to avoid burning him out. But everyone else in their bullpen should be a full go.
The Braves also used closer Raisel Iglesias for an inning on Saturday (15 pitches) and two more on Sunday (28 pitches). Monday¡¯s off-day should also be beneficial to top setup options Pierce Johnson, who appeared for a third straight day on Sunday, and Joe Jim¨¦nez, who pitched for the third time in four days on Saturday.
Anything else fans should know?
Although Acu?a won¡¯t be active, his little brother Luisangel will be. The two will have many family members in attendance at the series and plan to swap jerseys before one of the games. Since Lindor went down, Luisangel has been indispensable to the Mets, batting .379 with a 1.228 OPS as the team¡¯s everyday shortstop.
Olson got off to a slow start, but he ranks first among NL players and fourth among all MLB players with the 1.006 OPS he has produced since July 31. The first baseman is one homer away from joining Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso as the only players to hit 30-plus in each of the full 162-game seasons played going back to 2019.