A breakout Padres prospect makes his roster case

March 7th, 2024

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell¡¯s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

I didn't expect to have my interest piqued in the seventh inning of an early-March Cactus League game on the other side of the Valley. The Padres' regulars, mostly, didn't make the trip to Scottsdale to face the D-backs. The few that did had been removed from Tuesday's game.

Yet, when Jos¨¦ Azocar faced lefty reliever Joe Mantiply with two outs and nobody on, strode to the on-deck circle for another at-bat. Pauley is one of the most intriguing prospects in big league camp, vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster. Mantiply, an All-Star, would offer a stiff test for the lefty-hitting Pauley.

I don¡¯t root for much. But, man, I wanted to see Azocar reach base just to get a look at Pauley in that spot. I¡¯m guessing Padres decision-makers felt the same. Sure enough, Azocar shot a single through the left side, bringing Pauley to the plate.

¡°I haven¡¯t faced a ton of lefties so far this spring,¡± Pauley said. ¡°I¡¯ve been wanting to face some, and yesterday I got a chance.¡±

He made the most of it. Pauley laid off two very close pitches just off the outside corner. At 2-0, he got a sinker on the outer half of the plate and laced a single up the middle. It was the highlight of an impressive day for Pauley, who went 2-for-3 with a pair of walks (including one in the ninth against another of the D-backs¡¯ big league lefties in Andrew Saalfrank).

¡°It definitely counts for something,¡± Padres manager Mike Shildt said. "If you're going to be an everyday player, you need to be able to, as a lefty, stay in and hit lefties. It's a good sign he's been able to do it. He's had a nice spring."

On Wednesday, MLB Pipeline unveiled its preseason Top 30 Padres prospects list. Pauley was the biggest riser in the group. A 13th-round selection out of Duke in 2022, Pauley was unranked on that list a year ago. He¡¯s made the jump all the way to No. 11.

I have a hunch he might not get much higher. By the time the next re-rank comes out, I don¡¯t think Pauley¡¯s going to be a prospect anymore. I think he¡¯ll be a big leaguer.

There¡¯s even a path for Pauley to win an Opening Day roster spot. The Padres don¡¯t have an obvious DH. They could use a backup at first base. If Manny Machado begins the season limited to DH duties, well, the Padres will need a third baseman.

Pauley is capable of filling all of those roles. This spring, he¡¯s hitting .333/.440/.619, with three extra-base hits including an easy-power opposite-field home run against the Giants on Saturday. He led the Padres¡¯ farm system with 23 home runs last season, posting a .931 OPS across three different levels.

Much has been made about the Padres¡¯ search for another bat. (And, make no mistake, they could definitely use one. Probably two.) But Pauley is emerging as an internal option for playing time.

"There¡¯s only so much that¡¯s in my control," Pauley said. "I¡¯m going out there, and I¡¯m going to compete every day. I¡¯m going to keep learning from these guys that are some of the best players in the world.

"Just continue to play well. Whatever happens, happens. Wherever I go this year, however I can help, whatever team I¡¯m on."

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