Sasaki pursuit, more: Friars' Winter Meetings takeaways

December 12th, 2024

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell's Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DALLAS -- Four Padres thoughts before I board this flight home from the 2024 Winter Meetings in Dallas ¡­

1. The Roki Sasaki fit is a good one

That was my takeaway from listening to Joel Wolfe, Sasaki's agent, speak on Tuesday. Sasaki, a 23-year-old right-handed ace from Japan, was posted on Monday. His window to negotiate with teams subsequently opened on Tuesday, meaning Wolfe could discuss the process for the first time. He was asked explicitly what Sasaki would look for in a suitor.

"The best I can say is he has paid attention to how teams have done as far as overall success, both this year and in years past," Wolfe said. "He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball. He's paid attention to what his [World Baseball Classic] teammates have done. He's talked to a lot of foreign players that have been on his team in Chiba Lotte.

"He asks a lot of questions -- about weather, about comfortability, about pitching development. He's just watching what other Japanese players in the Major Leagues are doing and how they are doing."

The Padres check a number of those boxes. Sasaki and Yu Darvish are close from their time on Team Japan at the World Baseball Classic. The Padres have an excellent recent history of pitching development. Weather and comfortability? San Diego ain't bad.

Wolfe even noted that Sasaki might be looking to eschew a bigger market (Los Angeles?) because he didn't love the way his family was thrust into the spotlight amid rumors that he would be leaving Japan to pitch in the Majors.

In any case, Wolfe was asked specifically about the possibility San Diego might be a fit considering Sasaki's relationship with Darvish.

"I would assume that that would be a team that he would seriously consider,¡± Wolfe said. ¡°But his relationship with Darvish is private between the two of them. How much that will weigh on his decision-making? We'll have to find out."

2. The Padres have all sorts of intriguing rotation possibilities

If they don't sign Sasaki, they'll probably need multiple rotation arms. If they do? Well, they'll probably still need multiple rotation arms.

Essentially, the Padres will proceed the same way whether they land Sasaki or not. He¡¯d presumably be eased into the big leagues with a six-man rotation anyway. At the very least, San Diego could use the extra starting-pitching depth.

"Every year, starting pitching, you've got to keep hitting it all the time, got to keep finding it, all different ways," said general manager A.J. Preller.

That includes the possibility that San Diego could move a reliever or two into the rotation. Left-hander Adrian Morejon is one of the more intriguing options.

But before they commit to something like that, the Padres will be active on the free-agent and trade markets. Then again, starting pitching (as it always is) is in high demand.

Speaking of which ...

3. Could they trade a starter?

They need starting pitching, so it wouldn¡¯t be easy. But what if they could acquire multiple starters with additional years of control in return?

What does that look like in practice? Well, Dylan Cease is the most obvious candidate. Cease is due a raise on his $8 million salary from 2024, and he's entering his final year of arbitration before reaching free agency.

If the Padres could reallocate those funds, while recouping multiple younger arms in a deal ... well, it starts to sound a bit like a lite version of the Juan Soto trade, where the Padres gave up the (significantly) better player but got enough volume and control to make the deal worth it.

Then again, there's a pretty obvious downside: He's Dylan Cease. He just finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting, after posting a 3.47 ERA.

On Tuesday, Preller was asked about the possibility he might look to deal one of his starters who is approaching free agency. He downplayed it -- but didn't rule it out.

"It's that time of year where you're always going to get incoming phone calls when you have good players," Preller said. "This year's been active on that front. But I think that just speaks to when you have good players that people want to talk about."

4. What about extension candidates?

The Padres would seem to have a handful of extension candidates, even if Cease is an unlikely one. Michael King is also entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. Luis Arraez, too. The Padres haven¡¯t broached talks with either party, but it seems possible down the road.

Meanwhile, Jackson Merrill is the type of young player the Padres might look to lock up long-term. Of course, any of those deals would increase payroll, when they haven¡¯t done so significantly in nearly two years.

So what does the budget look like for any potential extensions, considering the Padres might be up against the CBT?

"We're aware of a lot of factors when we talk about payroll," Preller said. "It hasn't been a hard-and-and-fast number. We don't feel like this is a hard cap or anything like that. It's a tax number that, ultimately, we're going to do what we think is best for our team, our franchise. ¡­ We¡¯re open-minded to what we need to do to keep the best talent, the best players here.¡±

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