Every season, new teams emerge as legitimate postseason threats after missing out the previous year. In fact, 2024 marked the third straight year with six new playoff teams.
If things break right for the 10 teams below, at least some could find themselves playing October baseball in 2025.
Here¡¯s one X-factor for each club that could play a major role in its bid to go from also-ran to contender.
Blue Jays: Bo Bichette, SS
Bichette¡¯s diminished production during an injury-marred 2024 campaign was emblematic of the Blue Jays¡¯ season at large as the club ranked 23rd in the Majors in runs scored en route to a disappointing 74-88 record. The shortstop produced just 0.3 WAR (per FanGraphs) on the year, slashing .225/.277/.322 with four homers and a 71 wRC+ over 81 games. It was a surprising drop-off for a player who was in his age-26 season and had been one of the game¡¯s steadiest performers prior to 2024. From 2021-23, Bichette ranked third in MLB with 555 hits while posting a .298 batting average and a 125 wRC+. He had at least 20 homers and 3.9 WAR in all three of those years.
Although the Blue Jays bolstered their lineup with the addition of outfielder Anthony Santander in the offseason and still have superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, scoring runs may continue to be a struggle for the club unless Bichette returns to form. Bichette also has personal motivation to bounce back: He¡¯s slated to reach free agency after the 2025 season.
Cubs: Matt Shaw, 3B
Replacing Cody Bellinger with Kyle Tucker should be a net positive for the Cubs, but the club¡¯s offense otherwise looks quite similar to the one that ranked 12th in runs scored and tied for 20th in home runs last season -- Chicago¡¯s fourth straight without a playoff berth. With second baseman Nico Hoerner on track to return from right forearm surgery for the Cubs¡¯ domestic opener after missing the Tokyo Series, Chicago¡¯s lineup will feature seven players who were fixtures for the club in 2024. Tucker is one exception. The other? Shaw, MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 19 overall prospect.
The hot corner was one of the Cubs¡¯ weakest positions last season, but Shaw could shore up that spot if he hits the ground running as a rookie. The 23-year-old produced 21 homers, 31 steals and an .867 OPS in the Minors last year.
D-backs: Merrill Kelly, SP
Despite leading the Majors in runs scored last season, the D-backs narrowly missed the playoffs, losing a tiebreaker to the Mets for the third National League Wild Card spot. Their rotation was largely to blame for the disappointing result: Arizona¡¯s starters posted MLB¡¯s fourth-worst ERA (4.79) -- including a combined 5.96 ERA over 31 starts by free-agent additions Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery.
The D-backs¡¯ rotation has the potential to make a dramatic turnaround in 2025, especially after the club signed ¡¯21 NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes, who could form an elite one-two punch with Zac Gallen. However, given the questions surrounding Rodriguez, Montgomery and fellow starter Brandon Pfaadt, the club will be looking to Kelly to provide stability in his role as its No. 3 starter. The 36-year-old recorded a 3.33 ERA and a 126 ERA+ in 63 starts over 2022-23, but he missed much of ¡¯24 with a right shoulder strain and finished with a 4.03 ERA in 13 starts.
Giants: Jung Hoo Lee, OF
The Giants¡¯ lineup should get a boost with the addition of Willy Adames in free agency, but he alone isn¡¯t going to be enough to give San Francisco a playoff-caliber offense, especially with the uncertainty the team's rotation has behind ace Logan Webb. The Giants will also be counting on Lee, their big free-agent acquisition following the 2023 campaign, to give their lineup a much-needed spark.
The former KBO star¡¯s rookie year was cut short last May when he tore the labrum in his left shoulder and had to undergo season-ending surgery. At the time of the injury, the outfielder was hitting just .262 with two homers and a .641 OPS. That said, some of his underlying metrics -- including an 37.1% squared-up swing rate, a 9.6% whiff rate and an 8.2% strikeout rate -- offer hope for improvement in Lee¡¯s second MLB season.
Mariners: J.P. Crawford, SS
While the Mariners excelled in the run-prevention department once again in 2024, their offense nosedived, causing them to miss the playoffs by one game. Having left fielder Randy Arozarena for a full season and getting a better offensive year out of superstar center fielder Julio Rodríguez should help Seattle¡¯s lineup improve, but the club will also need more production from other spots if it hopes to avoid another near miss.
Crawford, one of Seattle¡¯s most disappointing hitters in 2024, is a particularly important figure for the M¡¯s going into the ¡¯25 campaign. The shortstop experienced a precipitous decline at the plate in 2024 (89 wRC+), one year after slashing .266/.380/.438 with 19 homers and the second-highest wRC+ (136) among qualifying shortstops.
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, SP
Given deGrom¡¯s ceiling and the Rangers¡¯ myriad rotation questions entering 2025, the two-time Cy Young Award winner could be MLB¡¯s biggest X-factor if he stays healthy. Since his first Cy Young season in 2018, the right-hander has posted some staggering numbers: a 2.07 ERA, 192 ERA+, 12.3 K/9, 7.08 K/BB ratio and a .188 opponents¡¯ batting average. However, injuries have limited him to just 35 starts over the past four years.
Now 36 and coming off Tommy John surgery, the odds may be against deGrom putting together a fully healthy season. But if he manages to stay on the mound, the Rangers could be a legitimate World Series contender two years after winning it all.
Rays: Junior Caminero, 3B
After a brief debut in 2023, Caminero spent most of last year in the Minors but had an encouraging late-season cameo for the Rays. Ranked as MLB Pipeline¡¯s No. 2 overall prospect at the time of his callup last August, the 21-year-old held his own at the plate for Tampa Bay, flashing a lightning-quick bat and impressive pop. In fact, he registered the seventh-highest average bat speed (77.2 mph) among hitters with at least 100 swings, as well as a max exit velocity figure (116.3 mph) that ranked in the 98th percentile. The excitement around Caminero continued to build during the winter, propelled by his clutch dinger -- and viral home run trot -- to clinch a title for the Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Republic Professional Baseball League (LIDOM).
With ace Shane McClanahan back from Tommy John surgery and a number of promising young arms in the fold, the Rays might have enough pitching to contend for a playoff spot in 2025. However, they need to find a way to drastically improve an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in MLB last year. Caminero is key to that effort.
Reds: Nick Lodolo, SP
With so many questions surrounding their offense, which ranked 26th in wRC+ (87) last season, the Reds¡¯ playoff chances may hinge on how well their rotation performs in 2025. As a result, Lodolo¡¯s development looms large for Cincinnati.
Selected seventh overall in the 2019 MLB Draft, Lodolo had a fantastic rookie season in ¡¯22 (3.66 ERA, 11.4 K/9) but has notched a 5.11 ERA in 28 starts over the past two years, missing significant time in that span due to a barrage of injuries. The team is counting on the left-hander to make the same type of leap that another former top pitching prospect, Hunter Greene, did in 2024. Lodolo certainly has the stuff to do it, with a collection of pitches that all get outstanding movement. It¡¯s just a matter of staying healthy and putting everything together.
Red Sox: Walker Buehler, SP
Boston¡¯s spring pitching injuries have only served to amplify Buehler¡¯s importance to the club¡¯s rotation. With Lucas Giolito, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello all set to open this season on the IL, the back end of the Red Sox¡¯s staff is facing significant uncertainty, increasing the need for Buehler to get off to a strong start behind 2024 All-Stars Garrett Crochet and Tanner Houck.
Of course, Buehler himself is a major question mark following a rocky 2024 campaign. Returning from a lengthy absence necessitated by his second Tommy John surgery, the righty made 16 starts for the Dodgers and recorded a 5.38 ERA. Still, his past work pitching at an ace level offers hope he can be a stabilizing force for the Red Sox after joining the club on a one-year, $21.05 million deal in the offseason. Buehler¡¯s performance to close out the postseason is also a source of optimism -- the 30-year-old threw 10 scoreless innings with a 33.3% strikeout rate and a 43.7% whiff rate over his final three playoff outings.
Twins: Matt Wallner, OF
With Royce Lewis already hurt and both Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton carrying injury concerns of their own, Wallner¡¯s performance could have an outsized impact on the Twins¡¯ playoff hopes in 2025. The 6-foot-4 slugger has shown immense power potential over the past two seasons, producing 27 homers, an .886 OPS and a 149 wRC+ in 515 PAs. In 2024, he posted the 13th-highest hard-hit rate (53.2%) and sixth-highest barrel rate (17.5%) among hitters with at least 100 batted balls, and he was one of only 17 players to hit a ball 116 mph or higher. He has homered six more times this spring, tying him for the MLB lead entering Friday.
Wallner, though, is far from a sure thing, given his extreme swing-and-miss tendencies. He has struck out in 34.5% of his plate appearances during his career, and he started off last season 2-for-25 with 17 K¡¯s, prompting Minnesota to send him to the Minors for nearly three months.