9 pitchers finding success without lighting up the radar gun
Speed, for lack of a better word, is good.
This is almost always true about pitches. Consider that hitters have a .274 average, an .809 OPS and a 14.3% strikeout rate on fastballs that are equal to or less than 93 mph this season. Bump that up to 96 mph or more, and you get a .218 average, a .630 OPS and a 27.5% K rate.
The current average four-seam fastball velocity from starting pitchers is 93.7 mph. That's a full 2 mph more than the league average from 15 years ago.
And yet, we have seen a bunch of starters this year buck the trend of increased velocity and still put up fantastic results. The premier example right now is Cubs rookie left-hander Shota Imanaga, who is off to a historic start and dominating with a 92 mph fastball.
He's far from the only standout soft-tosser, however. Let's use this space to highlight some of the other hurlers who are succeeding without a pitch that averages at least 93 mph.
All stats updated through Sunday.
Ranger Suárez, Phillies
Fastest pitch: 92.2 mph four-seamer
Aaron Nola, who tops out with a 91.4 mph four-seamer, could fit into this group as well. But Su¨¢rez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, much less on his own team. The 28-year-old has put himself firmly in the NL Cy Young conversation over his previous eight starts. He's won all of them while recording a 1.00 ERA, thereby placing himself in some elite company. The southpaw is throwing four pitches at least 15% of the time -- sinker, curveball, four-seamer, changeup. That quartet comprises about 90% of his game-to-game arsenal and has produced a collective slash line of .154/.197/.223. Su¨¢rez also has a K rate of 25% or better on each of those offerings. When he¡¯s not getting strikeouts, he¡¯s likely getting a weak grounder. Su¨¢rez¡¯s ground-ball rate (58.8%) and hard-hit rate (28.4%) rank sixth and fifth, respectively, among qualified pitchers. His .245 expected wOBA is third-best among pitchers with at least 100 batted balls.
Javier Assad, Cubs
Fastest pitch: 91.9 mph four-seamer
On June 27, 2023, Su¨¢rez gave up only one run over 7 1/3 innings in a victory over the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Assad finished that game for Chicago with three scoreless frames out of the bullpen. Since that date, Assad is one of 96 pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belt, and his 1.94 ERA is the best of the bunch. Now locked into the Cubs' rotation, Assad hasn't allowed more than two earned runs or five hits in any of his nine starts this year. His most recent performance was arguably his greatest thus far: six scoreless innings against the Braves in Atlanta. He got six of his seven strikeouts on his sinker, a pitch that he threw nearly 50% of the time and has become one of the most valuable two-seamers in the league. While Imanaga has grabbed most of the headlines on Chicago's North Side, Assad is starting to make people pay attention to how he's excelling without a traditionally overwhelming repertoire.
Seth Lugo, Royals
Fastest pitch: 92.5 mph four-seamer
In Imanaga, Su¨¢rez, Assad and Lugo, you have MLB's top four in ERA and pitcher run value. And Lugo, in his second season as a reliever-turned-starter, entered Monday as the Majors' leader in innings pitched (65 1/3). Although his run prevention has been solid all year long, Lugo tallied only 14 K's through his first five starts (31 IP). Over his previous five turns, however, he has 44 strikeouts through 34 1/3 innings. That includes a 10-K outing against the A's on May 18 and a career-best 12 strikeouts versus the Angels on May 12. He racked up 16 and 17 whiffs, respectively, in those two games, just shy of his career high. Lugo got eight whiffs from the Angels on 13 swings against his curveball. That pitch has long been a Lugo staple but got hit around last year to the tune of a .287 average and .455 expected slugging percentage. This year? It's led to a .111 average and a .277 xSLG.
Kutter Crawford, Red Sox
Fastest pitch: 92.7 mph four-seamer
Opposing lineups better get to Crawford early, because he seems to get stronger as the game ages. He has allowed a .724 OPS the first time through the lineup. That OPS falls to .556 the second time through and then .456 the third time. Batters who see Crawford three times in a game are 9-for-50 with no extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts this season. Crawford is carving his way through hitters largely with his four-seamer and, naturally, his cutter. He has done a good job of placing his "rising" four-seamer up in the zone, resulting in 26 K's and one extra-base hit in 78 plate appearances. Meanwhile, the cutter has a 25% hard-hit rate. According to Statcast's new bat-tracking data, Crawford's squared-up rate is among the lowest in the bigs.
Nestor Cortes, Yankees
Fastest pitch: 91.5 mph four-seamer
Without a pitch thrown from reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole, the Yankees' starting rotation ranks third in ERA (3.00) and is tied with the Reds for first in expected batting average (.231). Cortes has contributed greatly in each category. He's made three starts this season of at least seven innings with no earned runs allowed; the aforementioned Su¨¢rez is the only other pitcher who can claim that. And Cortes' .212 xBA ranks in the 83rd percentile. The 29-year-old's walk rate (4.9%) and barrel rate (6.3%) have dropped from last year, when he made multiple trips to the injured list. Now healthy, those decreases have helped Cortes record a 2.70 expected ERA -- 10th-best among pitchers with at least 100 batted balls. That's the same xERA he had at the end of his 2022 All-Star season.
Andrew Abbott, Reds
Fastest pitch: 92.9 mph four-seamer
We mentioned Cincinnati's stellar rotation xBA; Abbott's is .204, which puts him inside the top 10 (min. 100 batted balls). Although his 2023 rookie season had some bright spots, including a 17 2/3-innings scoreless streak to begin his career, Abbott scuffled over his final 11 starts. That period featured a 6.42 ERA, a .919 opponents' OPS and an 11.3% walk rate. He has seen his K and whiff rate fall by about six percentage points this season, but a 6.9% walk rate and a five-point improvement in his ground-ball percentage, to 35.1%, have helped mitigate some of the damage created by that extra contact. Abbott has also lowered the hard-hit rate on each of his four pitches by at least eight percentage points, highlighted by a 10-point drop on his four-seamer. The barrel rate on that pitch, which the right-hander throws more than half the time, has improved from 12.6% to 5.7%.
Zack Littell, Rays
Fastest pitch: 92.8 mph four-seamer
Another reliever-turned-starter, Littell has been the surprising linchpin of a Rays starting staff that has dealt with a bunch of injuries. It picked up another one Monday as ace Zach Eflin was sidelined by a back injury. Littell has ardently followed the club's established pitching philosophy: Trust your stuff and throw it in the strike zone. His 55.3% in-zone rate is the fifth-highest in MLB (min. 750 pitches thrown), and he has issued only eight walks in 49 2/3 frames. That's played a role in his impressive 2.87 FIP. Like many others on this list, Littell relies much more on suboptimal contact (5.8% barrel rate, 33.1% hard-hit rate) than whiffs and K's to get outs. And when you think of elite sliders, it's fair if you envision Chris Sale's wipeout slider first. But Littell's slider has registered a .487 OPS and is right next to Sale's atop the run value chart.
Trevor Williams, Nationals
Fastest pitch: 89.2 mph four-seamer
Williams wasn't at his best on Sunday as he allowed three earned runs over 4 1/3 frames in a loss to the Phillies. But his performance this season is still leaps and bounds ahead of where he was last year, when he turned in a 5.55 ERA, a 5.98 FIP and served up an NL-high 34 dingers in just 144 1/3 innings. This year, his second with Washington, the right-hander owns a 2.35 ERA with a 2.83 FIP and became just the second pitcher in Nationals team history (2005-present) to open a season with seven straight homerless starts, joining Gio Gonz¨¢lez in 2012. Williams' fastball has been much more effective this year, and he's teamed it with a sweeper that he started to sprinkle in last year. He uses that pitch about 20% of the time now, and it's limited batters to three hits and eight K's in 24 plate appearances.
Bailey Ober
Fastest pitch: 91.9 mph four-seamer
Ober's first start of this season? Uh, bad. The Royals pummeled him for eight runs on nine hits and three homers in 1 1/3 innings. But since April 1, Ober has been fooling a lot of hitters. He has pitched to a 2.96 ERA and a .545 opponents' OPS during that span. His .253 xwOBA ranks fifth (min. 100 plate appearances) while his 23.5% strikeout-minus-walk rate is 10th-best among qualified starters. Ober has cut back a little on his fastball usage since that rough 2024 introduction, instead unleashing a few more changeups and cutters on a per-start basis. Through his previous eight turns, batters are slashing .122/.151/.232 in 86 plate appearances ending on those pitches.